The 2018 state legislative election results were mixed. Democrats gained 309 seats overall and flipped 6 chambers, the New Hampshire Senate and House, the Maine Senate, the Colorado Senate, the Minnesota House, and the Connecticut Senate. However, Republicans still hold a majority of state legislature seats, and the party made gains in some key chambers, like the Hawaii and Wisconsin Senates (the former of which was unanimously Democratic) and the Alabama House (where Republicans capitalized on blue seats in red territory despite embarrasingly losing the state’s Senate race in 2017). I made some maps mapping out the 2018 results on a state by state basis.
Looking to 2020, Democrats are looking to expand on their flips by winning some chambers in the formerly blue Rust Belt and the leftward-trending Sun Belt. Republicans, meanwhile want to hold on to as much as they can while infiltrating Democratic strongholds in New England. The goal for Democrats should be to gain at least the 253 seats they need to get a majority in seats, as well as flipping, say, 3 rust belt chambers and 3 sun belt chambers, in places the Democrat at the presidential level will do well.
Let’s get started. This will be part 1 of 3 of this post, as there are lots of chambers to cover. I’ll release one each month for 2 more months.
Let’s start with the chambers holding elections this year, 2019.
Louisiana Senate (25-14 R) and House (62-37 R): Safe R
The real question in Louisiana is which party will be making gains. On one hand, there are several Democratic legislators in very red seats that are term-limited. Open seats without an incumbent have been historically easier to flip. On the other, the state’s Democrat governor, John Bel Edwards isn’t in terrible shape, and recent special elections have bode well for Democrats down here. As a precursor to 2020, the question of which party will make gains may be critical. If Republicans can gain 1 seat in the Senate or 4 in the House, they’d get a supermajority, and would get more powers such as being able to overturn the governors veteos, who may or may not be a Democrat.
Mississippi Senate (33-19 R) and House (72-46 R): Safe R
It is more likely Republicans will gain seats in Mississippi, because a lot of red-seat Democrats are retiring, and a lot of GOP incumbents are running unopposed. It also borders Alabama, where Republicans made gains last year.It looks like they might get a supermajority, which would require either a gain of 1 seat in the Senate or 7 in the House. However, Democratic AG Jim Hood is running for Governor, and has a very good shot at getting a majority of votes, which could pull some blue-dog Democrats up.
New Jersey House (52-28 D), Safe D
Democrats have gained 5 House seats in the state since this chamber was holding elections, so I’d expect some gains here. That said, this chamber is also very rigid. Each house district elects 2 members. In NONE of these districts is there 1 Democrat and 1 Republican. Maybe they could hold the line. Democrats need to flip 2 seats for a supermajority. With the governor being a Democrat, NJ dems may have a lot of power, or maybe there will be a fracture between the progressive urban and majority-minority district Democrats and the moderate suburbanites.
Virginia House (51-49 R) and Senate (21-19 R), Lean D
If Democrats are going to continue rebuilding their say in state legislatures, that starts by picking up these 2 chambers in Virginia, which are near perfect opportunities for them. VA is trending blue at the speed of light, Democrats only need to pick up two seats, and a new district map will be used for this election which is much more favorable to Democrats than the previous gerrymandered one. Republicans have announced retirement, and several strong Democratic challengers have already risen. Two caveats here: One being that the state House last held elections in 2017, a blue wave year, while the Senate last held them in 2015, a year that favored Republicans. One thing that could be the GOP’s saving grace here is the blackface/sexual assault scandals facing the state’s Democratic governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. Still, the he flow of the Potomac is most certainly against the GOP. This year is the 400th year anniversary of the founding of the House of Burgesses, an earlier form of the Virginia State Legislature.
Now on to the 2020 chambers. I promise these won’t be as long as the previous ones, since we don’t know much about these elections yet.
Alaska Senate: Safe R, 13-7 R
Despite a seemingly small bar for Democrats (they need to gain 4 seats to take control), the Senate only has 20 members, and only 10 have elections each year. A lot of incumbents also run unopposed. There is very little room to grow for either party, and I expect no net shift.
Alaska House: Lean D, 25-15 D
Honestly, this shouldn’t really count as an election rating. In the last 2 elections, it looked like Republicans would have control. But some moderate, renegade Republicans caucused with the Democrats, allowing them to take control. 25 out of the 40 members of the Alaska House are in the Democratic caucus, so I’d probably lean towards it staying intact.
Arizona Senate: Lean R, 17-13 R
5 incumbent Republicans only won re-election last year by less than 5 points. Democrats would need to flip 3 of them to pick up this chamber. The issue is that these incumbents are on red territory. So the Democrats probably need to win this state on the presidential level to flip this chamber. Some strong state and local candidates could do the trick, though.
Arizona House: Toss-Up, 31-29 R
In this closely divided chamber, two members each are elected from each Senate district. One of the 4 Democrat flips last year they owe entirely to what I call the “Pawlik Effect” named after the Democrat that benefited from it. Only one Democrat, Pawlik, made it to the general election ballot, against 2 republicans, (one for each seat) the vote was split between the Republicans allowing Pawlik to win out a narrow victory. Who knows if those conditions will be present this time around, but if another Democrat joins in, Pawlik may be in trouble. Both parties could use the Pawlik Effect to their advantage. House districts in Chandler and Glendale, Phoenix suburbs, appear to be the best pickup opportunities for Democrats.
Arkansas Senate (26-9 R) and House (76-24 R): Safe R
Democrats still hold some pretty red seats in Arkansas, especially in the southern part of the state. With some of them being term-limited, it’s more likely it will be Republicans gaining seats as opposed to the other way around.
California Senate (29-11 D) and House (61-19 R): Safe D
Believe it or not, Republicans still haven’t hit rock-bottom in California yet, and there are still plenty of seats, especially in Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties that could go blue. I wouldn’t expect this chamber to become any less liberal.
Colorado Senate (19-16 D) and House (41-24 D): Likely D and Safe D
Overall, it appears that Democrats have more seats in suburbia they can flip to strengthen their majorities than seats Republicans can flip to get their majorities back. Colorado is also trending blue anyway. I’m putting Colorado House, where Democrats have a stronger majority, in Safe D. In the Senate, Republicans only need to flip 2 seats. Trump would have to have a breakthrough here for these chambers to be in play, which could happen, but probably not.
Connecticut Senate (22-14 D) and House (89-60 D): Likely D and Safe D
Up until 2018, Republicans experienced relative success in CT, denying Democrats ouright control of the state Senate in a state bluer than Long Island Sound. This ended in 2018, when Democrats made big gains in suburban areas. However, since then, Republicans have done well in special elections here, suggesting all hope isn’t lost for them. A lot depends on the popularity of newly-minted governor Ned Lamont. The House, however, seems out of reach for Republicans.
Delaware Senate (12-9 D) and House (26-15 D): Likely D and Safe D
Despite a narrow majority in the Senate, Republicans would need to win in some very blue places to flip either chamber, and Democrats thus look like pretty good favorites to hold both chambers.
Florida Senate (23-17 R) and House (71-46 R): Likely R
Unfortunately for Dems, they missed a lot of their good pickup opportunities last year, despite good candidates in suburban areas, which is a testament to their troubles in the state recently. Unless the state Democratic party can get their act together, why should they succeed in a presidential year where they lost in a blue wave year?
Georgia Senate (35-21 R) and House (104-75 R): Likely R
This chamber has gotten national media attention for passing a heartbeat abortion bill, or banning all abortions when a fetal heartbeat is detected, with limited exceptions. Democrats hope that this will further anger suburban voters to drive the Republicans out of power here. Doubts as to how much this will anger suburbanites aside, even if it caused a mass swing of even 10 points towards Democrats in suburban Atlanta (which is very optimistic for Dems), it wouldn’t be enough to flip either chamber.
Hawaii Senate (24-1 D) and House (46-5 D): Safe D
Democrats should have no trouble holding their majorities in monolithically blue Hawaii. The larger battle here will probably be between the moderates and the progressives.
Idaho Senate (28-7 R) and House (56-14 R): Safe R
Republicans don’t need to fear losing their legislative majorities here.
Special thanks to Ballotpedia and Chris Leonchik. This project may have never happened without the resources you have gifted the internet.
Stay tuned next month for part 2 (of 3).