In 2018, Democrats gained 7 governorships, closing the once huge Republican advantage in them to a weaker one, 27-23. They are also governors for a majority of U.S. residents, despite coming short in some marquee races, like Florida, Georgia, and Ohio. Looking ahead to later in 2019, can Democrats put on a show of force by sweeping, or at least winning 2 out of 3, of the red-state governor races this year? If they can pull this off, not only would it look good for them cosmetically, it would open the door for them to taking a numerical advantage in governorships next year, another major goal of state-level Democrats.
Some overlying themes here: You may notice some weird ratings. Vermont Likely R? Louisiana Lean D? Have I gone insane? Well, both of those states have popular governors with high past margins of victory. Governor races tend to have a lower degree of partisan voting then Senate races do. It’s for this reason that a Trump visit or two in some red states may serve Republicans well, as he may make things more partisan. Finally, three races, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky, are holding their races in 2019. They’re also the three closest races, another reason I’m excited about what this year has to offer in terms of elections.
Here are my initial ratings in map form
Likely Republican
Jim Justice (R-WV)
West Virginia has a tradition of Dem-local, GOP-national voting elections. Indeed, it used to be one of the bluest states, but it has since turned more red as national Democrats became more anti-coal and socially liberal. Jim Justice was elected as a Democrat in 2016, switching parties two years ago. He also became more conservative, after being more center-left. This sudden shift in ideology may have rubbed West Virginians the wrong way, especially amidst teacher strikes last year, and state Democrats have some good candidates, like former presidential candidate Richard Ojeda and Senator Joe Manchin. Still, it will be hard for them to unseat an incumbent in a Trump+42 state.
Phil Scott (R-VT)
Vermont is the opposite of West Virginia in a way, sometimes voting GOP on the local level while overwhelmingly supporting Democrats on the national level. One of those examples is Gov. Phil Scott, who is unlikely to go anywhere with a 59% approval rating. The Democrats do have a deep bench of statewide officeholders, however.
Leans Republican
Chris Sununu (R-NH)
In the northeast’s ultimate swing state, the fiscally conservative, socially liberal Chris Sununu starts out as a favorite, based on a 7-point 2018 margin of victory and a 60% approval rating. The Democrat’s best candidate is probably executive councilor Andru Volinsky.
Bullock (Open)(D-MT)
Many have this race as Toss-Up, but I don’t see the logic in that. Yes, Republicans haven’t held the governorship since 2005, but things in Montana and the nation are changing. Trump won Montana by 20 points, and the nation is getting so polarized that Greg Gianforte, who beat up a reporter got elected, and re-elected last cycle. Did I not mention one of the candidates Republicans were hoping for, AG Tim Fox, has already declared? Yeah, I don’t see a Toss-Up here.
Bryant (Open)(R-MS)
Popular state AG Jim Hood poses a real, credible threat to Republicans in ruby-red Mississippi. He won his last election by 11 points, and leads Republican Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves consistently in polls. His best poll showing so far was 44% a week ago. This may seem like good news, but it also means that there are undecideds in this race that are likely Republican leaning, that I speculate will end up throwing the race to Reeves. Another caveat here is that the Mississippi Constitution requires a candidate to win both a majority of votes and a majority of state house seats to win, or else the Republican controlled legislature chooses the governor. So Hood would likely need to win the popular vote by a high single-digits margin to actually take the governorship.
Toss-Up
Matt Bevin (R-KY)
In another ruby-red state, Bevin has almost nothing going for him. Democrats have found a strong candidate in popular state AG Andy Beshear, who led Bevin 48-40 in a Mason-Dixon poll. Bevin, conversely is unpopular, with only a third of his constituents approving, and half disapproving, of him, according to a January Morning Consult Poll. Teacher strikes and an offhand comment about sexual assault last year can and will be used against him. Kentucky, like West Virginia, has a sort of Dem-local, Rep-national tradition as well.
Leans Democrat
John Bel Edwards (D-LA)
I was torn on this race. One one hand, Democrat incumbents in deep-red states did poorly last year. On the other, Republican governors in deep-blue states performed very well. Gov. Edwards, sporting a 49-30 approval/disapproval rating, has contracted a very credible challenger in Rep. Ralph Abraham, a conservative Republican from a conservative R+15 district in northern Louisiana. Abraham has never really had a competitive race before, so I’m skeptical he’ll be able to bust his chops here. Edwards has more than proven himself in this blood-red state (Glad I used another analogy for red instead of ruby)
Roy Cooper (D-NC)
In a state that leans red on the presidential level, Roy Cooper start as a favorite. He proved himself in 2016 by knocking off an incumbent Republican governor, even as Trump was winning the state, and has remained a strong incumbent, with a 51% approval rating. His lieutenant governor, Dan Forest, a Republican, has formed an exploratory committee to run against him, which would be an interesting dynamic if it were the two of them in the general. This is the marquee governor race of 2020, it’s the largest state holding a governor election that year, and the governor, whoever it is, may be able to draw congressional maps to the benefit of their party after the census.
Likely Democrat
Inslee (Open)(D-WA)
The open seat of Jay Inslee, who is running for president will most likely stay in Democrat hands in ocean-blue Washington, especially given that neighboring Oregon voted for Democrat Kate Brown by 7 points even when she had nothing going for her. However, Republicans have a surprisingly deep bench here, including popular Secretary of State Kim Wyman and former Rep. Dave Reichert, who both have enviable crossover appeal.
Some Final Thoughts
Based on these ratings, the expected net shift in statehouses next year is currently either no net change or a Republican gain of 1 seat. That could change based on how the presidential race is going and how each race develops. It will be interesting to see how these races pan out. I hope you’re ready for the ride folks.
Look for House of Representatives ratings in March.