First, let’s start with the 3 ratings changes we’re making.
Iowa Senate: Lean R -> Likely R
Despite a deep bench in the state, the best candidate the Democrats have is Theresa Greenfield, a candidate for IA-3 in 2018. She didn’t make the Democrat primary ballot because her campaign manager forged the signatures she needed. It is not known whether or not she was involved, but it could be a line of attack against her. Without a B or A-list candidate, Joni Ernst’s personal brand and high past margins of victory put her in Likely R. Democrats hope that her background growing up on a farm can appeal to Iowans.
Kansas Senate: Safe R -> Likely R
Kris Kobach, the Republican nominee for governor in 2018, got no more than 43% of the vote, an awful performance for a Republican in this deep-red state. Now, he’s running for Senate. There’s no guarantee he’ll be the nominee again, as several heavyweight Republicans, like state AG Derek Schmidt or treasurer Jake LaTurner, are scoping out the race (LaTurner is already in). There are also some strong Democrats considering the race, like former red-district congresswoman Nancy Boyda or state Senator Barbara Bollier, who could be interesting as she was a Republican up until earlier this year, and is quite moderate. The risk of Kobach being the nominee alone puts this race in Likely R. Even if he isn’t the nominee, the race could at least be close if there’s a bruising primary battle. Historically, this is an uphill race for Democrats. Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat Senator since 1932. One final note: Kris Kobach supported purging voters from the rolls if they spelled their name differently than in the voter database. However, he spelled his won name wrong on the FEC paperwork. Embarrassing!
Minnesota Senate: Likely D -> Safe D
One of the GOP’s top picks in this already longshot race, state Sen. Karin Housley, (who lost to incumbent Democrat Tina Smith by double-digits) has decided not to run. Now, they’re relying on their other top pick, former congressman Jason Lewis. He’s an ultra-conservative talk show radio host who came under fire for thinking aloud “Can we call anyone a slut?” on his radio show. He lost a district Trump carried by a point last year by 6 points against a progressive Democrat. The fact that Lewis is the candidate the GOP is hoping for shows how bleak things are looking for them here. He almost certainly wouldn’t beat Tina Smith.
The Non-Changes
One would be forgiven if they expected me to move Montana and South Carolina to Likely R from Safe R, Maine to Lean R, and/or Virginia to Likely D from Safe D. Since it was trending on Twitter, let’s talk about Maine. Sara Gideon has raised more than a million dollars the first day of her campaign, and is likely to get millions more. Likely R to Lean R at the very least, right? Not so fast. We can’t forget about the underlying fundamentals here. Collins won by 37% in 2014, Clinton only won Maine by 3% in 2016, and lost the 2nd congressional district by double-digits. Despite the Kavanaugh vote, Collins still boasts solid approval ratings. But let’s not forget that Collins is also expected to rake in millions because of her vote on Kavanaugh from conservative donors. Additionally, Sara Gideon’s resume as Maine House Speaker seems a little weak, and she has yet to establish the themes of her campaign. Don’t think that no thought went into this decision, it certainly did, but I have decided to keep Maine at Likely R. This logic can be applied to the other races I mentioned. For all the hype surrounding Wilmot Collins and Jaime Harrison in Montana and South Carolina respectively, I think it will just be that, hype. After doing a bit of research, they don’t strike me as people that can defy the partisan leans of their states, especially against formidable incumbents Steve Daines and Lindsey Graham. Former congressman Scott Taylor seems like a good pick against Mark Warner with his moderate profile. He may have made the race close, expect that he forged signatures for an independent candidate to get on the ballot to split the Democrat vote in his district in 2018. He went on to lose that race, hence “former” congressman.
Can Democrats Flip the Senate
They’ll almost certainly need to flip the White House to take the Senate. In most states, the presidential and Senate results will match each other, and it may be to the Republican’s benefit in some states if they don’t. Since the Vice President casts the tie-breaking the vote, they’ll need to flip 3 seats in they win the presidency, and 4 if they don’t. So let’s just assume they win the presidency, as it is a necessary ingredient to them controlling the Senate. The two Toss-Up states, Arizona and Colorado, are must-wins for them. It looks as if their candidates are doing well here, so were making the very dubious assumption they flip. It looks like Republicans will flip Alabama next year, as Doug Jones probably won’t be able to survive presidential-year turnout in a deep-red state. We’re back down to a net gain of 1 for Democrats. Fortunately, with Smith in Safe D, there aren’t many seats that Democrats need to worry about holding at all. There are two other seats in Lean R, and 5 in Likely R. Democrats hope that some of these races begin to go their way. If you think about it, it’s not hard at all to imagine a Lean R seats drifting into Toss-Up and only one of the 5 Likely R seats doing the same, especially with 16 months to go. I’ve discussed before the potential for a landslide for Democrats on the presidential level. Democrat candidates across the country are also raking in a lot of money. I bet things are going to get better, not worse, for Democrats, as their candidates can make names for themselves. They should emphasize winning people over traditionally red suburbs and increasing turnout among African-American and/or Latino voters. Another scenario is one where Roy Moore or another problematic candidate, like Robert Bentley, become the Republican nominee in Alabama, giving Jones a victory path. A Democrat win in Alabama would make capturing the Senate infinitely easier. A fact that should be sobering for Republicans is that Democrats probably need a near-sweep the Toss-Up seats on election night, whatever those are, to win the Senate, barring a surprise upset.