Let’s start off right where we left off. Let’s look at 15 more states holding legislative elections next year.
Illinois Senate (40-19 D) and House (74-44 D): Safe D
The bigger question here is will Democrats be able to expand on their victories in 2018 by winning even more suburban Chicago seats? Or can Republicans hold the line or maybe even make up some lost ground?
Indiana Senate (40-10 R) and House (67-33 R): Safe R
Long gone are the days of Democrats being competitive in Indiana. Despite staggering Republican majorities, they may yet gain more seats as several Democrats hold some Trumpy districts, especially in the State House.
Iowa Senate (32-18 R): Safe R
The Iowa Senate was the only upper chamber in which Republicans netted more than one seat in 2018. They successfully shored up this chamber that year, as Republican margins here are to big for Democrats to erode in a year when only half of the chamber is up.
Iowa House (53-47 R): Toss-Up
The House, on the other hand, is looking up for Democrats. There were several close races in Republican-held seats last year, one GOP lawmaker switched parties, and already a Clinton-won R-held seat is open. The state is also very elastic and swingy in its voting. It gave 3 out of its 4 House seats to Democrats, but elected a Republican governor last year.
Kansas Senate (28-11 R) and House (84-41 R): Safe R
Kansas is effectively a three-party state. You have the uber-conservative rural Republicans, the radical centrist Kansas City area Republicans, and the inner-city and Indian reservation Democrats. Given national trends, it’s not surprising to see the moderates losing ground. Many are retiring, getting defeated in the primary or general elections, or just straight-up becoming Democrats. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues, or if the moderates can regain a foothold. Another scenario to watch is if Democrats can gain enough seats (3 in the Senate -or- 2 in the House) to erase the Republicans currently veto-proof majority, giving more weight to the state’s Democrat governor, Laura Kelly.
Kentucky Senate (29-9 R) and House (61-39 R): Safe R
Once upon a time, Kentucky was a reliably blue state. Not so much anymore, but it’s blue history is present in the state legislature, where Democrats still hold some very Trumpy seats. This is their problem, however, as voting gets more partisan and polarized, these seats will begin to slip away, probably some this cycle.
Maine Senate (21-14 D) and House (88-56 D): Lean D and Likely D
Maine, after swinging hard right in 2016, swung back left last year, by handily electing a Democrat governor and giving the party major gains in the state legislature. The state is unpredictable. But Democrat margins are generally wide enough for me to say they’re at least favored to hold these chambers.
Massachusetts Senate (33-7 D) and House (127-32 D): Safe D
Democrat majorities are so strong here it’s unlikely Republicans even have much of a shot of taking away the Democrat’s supermajority.
Michigan House (58-52 R): Toss-Up
Polling and 2018 results in Michigan don’t bode well for Republicans, which is bad for them in a state where the Democrats only need to flip 3 seats for control of the State House. Several GOP lawmakers in swing seats are term-limited. This will be one of this cycle’s most competitive chambers.
Minnesota Senate (35-32 R) and House (75-59 D): Lean D
The Senate, which had its last election in 2016, has several Republicans in suburban areas that are now very blue. There are enough of these incumbents for me to feel inclined to say Democrats are the favorites to flip the chamber. On the flip side, the Democrats hold a lot of Obama-Trump rust belt seats in the House, which could be an opening for the GOP. Fun fact: Minnesota is the only state to have two different parties control its two legislative chambers. That could very well change this election.
Missouri Senate (24-10 R) and House (114-46 R): Safe R
Not much interesting to say about this state, TBH. Expect continued Republican control of the state.
Montana Senate (30-20 R) and House (58-42 R): Safe R
It looks like Democrats have reached their ceiling in these chambers, and unless they can manage to make inroads in very red parts of the state, it’s probable the Democrats will plateau out here, or maybe even lose some seats.
Nebraska Senate (Non-partisan)
I’m not giving out a rating for this chamber, since it is non-partisan. I will add that unlike all the other states, Nebraska only has a Senate. It doesn’t have a House or any equivalent to it.
Nevada Senate (13-8 D): Likely D
Republicans need to flip 3 seats. There are two obvious targets. Joyce Woodhouse, District 5, and Nicole Cannizzaro, District 13, won by the slimmest of margins in 2016 in purple districts, and almost faced recall elections last year. The third pickup, however, will be the hardest, as the other D-held districts are in deep blue territory.
Nevada House (28-13 D): Safe D
Even Republicans running the table on the initially competitive races wouldn’t be enough to flip this chamber. Expect the most liberal state legislature in Nevada’s history to continue being as such. Fun fact: The Nevada Legislature is the only one in the country that is majority female.
New Hampshire Senate (14-10 D) and House (233-167 D): Toss-Up
The Granite State is known for huge swings between election cycles. As the pendulum begins to swing back from the blue wave last year, we may see both of these chambers flip. These chambers are some of the best pickup opportunities for the GOP in the nation.
New Mexico Senate (25-16 D) and House (46-24 D): Safe D
New Mexico was a disaster for Republicans in the midterms. The last time the Senate held elections was in 2016, a great year for team red, and it still flipped to Democrat control that year. I expect things are going to get worse for the GOP here before they get better. If they hold their losses down in the Senate, and manage to gain in the House, they would have had a good night.