Let’s lay down the ground rules: In Louisiana’s election system for most races except the presidential race, all candidates from all parties participate in the same primary, held, in this year, on October 12th. If one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, they win right then and there. If not, the 2 candidates that get the most votes face off head-to-head on November 16. Louisiana’s current Democrat governor, John Bel Edwards, has made it clear he hopes to clear 50% on Saturday, avoiding having to go head-to-head with a Republican in the second round. Due to a split Republican vote, it’s clear he’ll get the most votes Saturday, but that and getting 50% are two totally different things in Louisiana. Two Republicans, Congressman Dr. Ralph Abraham from the northeast part of the state, and businessman Eddie Rispone of Baton Rouge, are fighting a war on two fronts, trying to keep Edwards beneath 50%, as well as getting more votes than the other, thus getting the second-most votes.

Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards

National Issues vs. Local Issues

Trump and Republicans will make every effort to make this race about what’s going on in the Oval Office. This makes sense, as Trump won Louisiana by 20 points. If he can convince Louisiana voters that their Democrat governor, John Bel Edwards, has and will continue to obstruct his agenda, Republicans will win the race. He gave a scathing criticism of Edwards on Twitter recently, calling him a “Nancy Pelosi/Chuck Schumer Democrat” who would “stymie all of the things we are doing to Make America Great Again.” This tweet is particularly damaging in Louisiana, where approximately 56% of registered votes approve of Donald Trump.

That tweet contradicts the several times Edwards has welcomed Trump to his state and have worked together on natural disaster relief and keeping/making jobs. Edwards needs to keep people focused on this and on his accomplishments to win re-election, which includes starting to reverse the debt the state’s last governor put Louisiana in, raising teacher salaries, expanding Medicaid, and disaster relief. Unfortunately, despite his efforts, Louisiana still is at or near the bottom of the barrel when it comes to factors like poverty, education, and infrastructure. Will the Republican leaning voters he needs be patient with Edwards? Or will they snap back to Republicans?

This election is seen as maybe being a referendum on impeachment. Nationally speaking, Democrats contend that impeaching Trump will put a stigma on him, weakening his already uneasy standing with swing voters. The GOP thinks that Democrats are part of a witch hunt and have abandoned the rule of law and their oath to defend the Constitution, which will bring their voters out to the polls in droves. We have reason to believe the later may be the case. In the 2015 governor race, 50% of Louisiana early voters were registered Democrats, 36% Republicans. This year, only 43% of early voters were Democrats, and 42% were Republicans. According to pollster Jay Campbell, 92% of conservative Republicans support impeachment, while only 79% of liberal Democrats support impeachment. It’s bad news for Edwards if the GOP is rallying around the president through this time.

Polling Average

Here’s the polling average, based on 3 polls taken in the last two weeks:

John Bel Edwards (D)-46.3%

Eddie Rispone (R)-22.3%

Ralph Abraham (R)-17.7%

The Prediction

So, given that the GOP is becoming unified behind Donald Trump, and that Edwards doesn’t have a lot to cheer about at home, I find it unlikely that he will get 50% of the vote Saturday, a conclusion that the polls corroborate. Still, I’ll keep the race at Lean Democrat for now, given Edwards is a well-respected figure in the state. Remember, Edwards signed the GOP-backed heartbeat abortion bill, which will help him get cross-over votes. We’ll see how he does in 3 days.

So that leaves one last question: Who will face Edwards? I’m leaning towards Rispone getting the nomination. He has a lot more money than Abraham, 10 million dollars, to one million. The two have attacked each other for not being the better supporters of President Trump, but Rispone, who seems more charismatic, present, and well-spoken, has used this money to drown out Abraham. While there’s no doubt Abraham, a congressman, started out with the advantage, Rispone has pried it away from him. Abraham is also showing signs of desperation, pulling stunts like calling for Nancy Pelosi to be expelled from the House.

Ralph Abraham, left, and Eddie Rispone, right

See you after the election.

Three, Two, One Last Thing

As the results begin to come in after 8:00 PM local time, (9 Eastern), watch to see if Edwards gets 50% or more of the vote in the parish in orange and at least 2 of the parishes in yellow.

All of the colored parishes are bellwethers, meaning if Edwards can get 50% or more in them, it’s a good predictor that he’ll get 50% statewide. The orange parish is Jefferson Parish, the most important bellwether. It has the 2nd-most people in the state, based in suburban New Orleans. It is very important Edwards gets 50% there if he wants to avoid a runoff. If he wins this, and 2 of the other parishes, he has much better than even odds of doing that.

See you on the other side.