After Louisiana wrapped up its Governor race last night, the last major election of the decade, we turn to the Iowa Caucus, on February 3rd, 2020. Some unexpected developments have occurred since we last looked at the state of the primary. I’ll elaborate below.
Ryan and Beto Out, Patrick and Bloomberg In: A Timeline
This all may be a bit hard to keep track of, so let me break it down.
October 24: Tim Ryan ends his campaign.
November 1: Beto O’Rourke drops out, the first candidate to ever be in the Top 5 in my Best Shot Tracker to do so. He started off reasonably strong and with high expectations coming off of his vibrant, well-done, nearly successful campaign for Senate from the deep-red state of Texas. Then, he had a poor 1st debate performance, appearing very cynical and stern on stage, and using Spanish, which seemed more like pandering to Hispanics then trying to be in their best interest. He then adopted far-left positions on social issues, like a mandatory gun buyback and removing tax-exempt status from religious places that don’t officiate gay weddings. His poll numbers dipped to 1 percent, and he saw the writing on the wall. A candidate with enormous potential wasted himself.
The last day to file for the Democrat primary in all 50 states was November 8. After that date, no one else can get on Alabama’s primary ballot. (One could still try to get on any other state’s ballot) On November 7, Michael Bloomberg filed for the primary in only Alabama. November 11 was the deadline in Arkansas. On that date, he traveled to Arkansas to file there. On November 14, former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick entered the presidential race, entering the primary for the remaining 48 states.
It’s important to note that Bloomberg has yet to file for the primary in the other 48 states. He may be filing now just in case he wants to run, something he might still be undecided on.
So where do these candidates rank? Bloomberg is more well-known and well-known about than a lot of the lower-tier presidential candidates, and has a clear base in the socially progressive but fiscally center-right crowd. Those voters make up a small part of the electorate, but they exist. Due to this, he gets 8th place, between Amy Klobuchar and the struggling Cory Booker. I would tend to think of Deval Patrick as more of a joke candidate, so he gets last place. Not a whole lot of expectations for you, buddy.
The Rise of Pete Buttigieg?
New polling since last time shows Pete Buttigieg LEADING in Iowa. Here are the polling averages of 7 polls taken in the state this month:
Pete Buttigieg 20.1%
Elizabeth Warren 19.7%
Bernie Sanders 16.9%
Joe Biden 16.6%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Kamala Harris 3.3%
Tom Steyer 3.1%
Andrew Yang 2.7%
Tulsi Gabbard 1.8%
All other candidates are at or below 1%.
This is quite the table-turn from when Pete Buttigieg was barely an asterisk mark as launched his campaign in April. I always thought there was still room in the Democrat primary for a candidate to rise up in between Biden and Warren, and fill a vacuum of primary voters who are nervous about the electability of them and want a fresh face. We are amending our rating in Iowa from Toss-Up to 3-Way Toss-Up (Biden, Warren, Buttigieg).
But what about the rest of the country? The problem is that virtually everywhere else, he’s barely polling double-digits, if at all. It could just be he’s only investing in Iowa right now, and his poll numbers will increase as he works harder in other states when the primary dates become closer. He certainly doesn’t have a resource problem, as he outraised Biden last quarter with $19.1 million, putting him only slightly behind Warren and Sanders in another sign of enthusiastic, real grassroots support. However, one look beneath polls still shows a glaring weakness: support among people of color. In a recent CNN poll, about 0% of black voters in South Carolina chose Buttigieg. It’s impossible to win the Democratic nomination with 0% black support, simple as that. He’ll need to work hard to court these voters to remain viable after New Hampshire, something I’ve yet to see him do successfully, although we’re still 3 months out from the Nevada caucus.
Still, he jumps ahead of Bernie Sanders to spot 3 on the Best-Shot Tracker, behind Joe Biden. I never expected to do this, especially since a majority of his suporters probably can’t pronounce his last name correctly (to say it correctly, phonetically say Boot-ih-jij)
Speaking of, Bernie Sanders probably owes the fact he’s still in the running to endorsements by members of “The Squad”, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar, re-invigorating his support among young voters and potentially adding more minority voters to his coalition. Without that boost, he would’ve probably slid to near single-digits.
After polling looked great for frontrunner Warren in early October, she has had to deal with a symptom of being a frontrunner: media scrutiny. Specifically, the media has poked holes in her argument for single-payer healthcare, which would require abolishing private insurance. In a recent HarrisX poll, only 13% of Americans supported a government health care system that doesn’t allow for private plans. Americans are uneasy about giving up their freedom to choose their insurance to the government, even if they aren’t exactly fans of their private insurance. She has since fallen back behind Biden in most polling outside Iowa and New Hampshire. While Biden’s problems still keep him out of Spot #1, we will have to see if Warren can come back. If she can’t by mid-January, I may have to give Spot #1 back to Biden (or Buttigieg, who knows?).
Kamala Harris continues her slide into irrelevancy, as she’s now routinely polling behind Amy Klobuchar and/or Andrew Yang.
The only other change on the Best-Shot Tracker is Julian Castro sliding to spot 12, beneath Tulsi Gabbard. This is due to him not making tomorrow’s debate (Gabbard and everyone above her on the Best-Shot Tracker except Bloomberg did), and some concerns he will drop out of the race by year’s end due to poor fundraising.
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