We’re getting to that time in the primary season where more people are leaving the race than joining it. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D, CA-15) dropped out this week. The field has been reduced from 21 to 20*.
The Top 5
Polling changes after the first debate have resulted in me making many changes to the Best Shot Tracker. Kamala Harris has jumped into 3rd place, after it looked like she was fading pre-debate. Her performance in the debate was probably the best of all candidates on both nights. Recent polling confirms this, as she’s now in a statistical tie for 2nd place with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Speaking of Sanders and Warren, there’s no reason to believe the trend of Warren rising and Bernie falling will stop anytime soon. Warren is just more politically skilled that Sanders. I believe that Warren will eclipse Sanders soon, so I moved Warren up to 2nd place and Sanders down to 4th place. Pete Buttigieg, after a surprising jump in the polls, seems to be falling out of the spotlight, and he goes down to 5th place. Of course, everyone’s focused on knocking Joe Biden out of the driver seat of the clown car that the Democrat primary has become. While he has taken a hit in the polls post-debate, it wasn’t enough to knock Uncle Joe from a clear 1st place. Still, his advantage is not as insurmountable as it once was. I anticipate a contested primary.
The Undercard
Note: For the “changes” I’m about to mention in the undercard, it’s really just a difference of a few 10ths of a percentage point, which is statistically insignificant. T.B.H, you probably know everything you need to from the first part of this article.
Now that Swalwell is out, I have identified 4 Democrats that could be the next to drop out: Tim Ryan, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet. The former 2 have re-election campaigns back home that they need to attend to (You can’t run for both president and House/Governor). John Hickenlooper’s own staffers want him to drop out and run for Senate in Colorado (If he did so, I may change that race to Lean Democrat). I don’t see a path for Michael Bennet to escape his current position. He’s currently polling 0.4%. These 4 have been moved to the bottom 4 places on the Best Shot Tracker, in order of how low their RCP polling average is. John Delaney is barely even registering in the polls, so he moves down a lot. A lot of candidates in the undercard moved “up” just because these people moved beneath them. Tulsi Gabbard makes her debut on the Best Shot Tracker with a respectable 11th place. Surprisingly, she’s polling better than a lot of the undercard, perhaps due to her being the ideological maverick of the field, giving voters a unique choice. Julian Castro moves to 7th place, ahead of Beto, who after a poor debate performance, is at 8th place. Finally, Amy Klobuchar, who was once thought to be a potential dark horse, is just dark, as in out of the spotlight, no one really cares about her anymore. There are just more vibrant options on the field.
*My count is based on people who made the debates, as well as any Senators, Governors, former Cabinet Members, and celebrities that didn’t make the debates. Mike Gravel, while a former Senator, has openly said his campaign isn’t seriously trying to win the nomination. I don’t think Tom Steyer has enough name recognition to be called a celebrity.