John Hickenlooper, as anticipated, dropped his struggling presidential bid Thursday. Now all eyes are on him to see if he will run for Senate in Colorado. He’s probably the best candidate the Democrats have got in their effort to flip the Senate seat next year. But were here to talk about the presidency. Just as soon as Hickenlooper leaves, we get the news billionaire/activist Tom Steyer surpassed the 130,000 donor threshold. Now, all he needs is one more poll showing him with 2% or more of the vote and he makes the September and October Democratic debates. Since he is poised to do so, I’m now counting him as a serious contender, and thus giving him a spot on the Best Shot Tracker. I put him at spot 11, beneath all the others who could make the debate. He’s not polling very well, and has been accused of “buying” the 130,000 donors he needs by blanketing early primary states with ads that he purchased with his own fortunes. His main message is that he’s the only Democrat that can go toe-to-toe with Trump on the economy. While it is a mistake to underestimate his potential political talent, the other candidates just either have more to offer or are polling a lot better. He’s certainly in a better spot than a lot of the people who won’t make the next debate.
I believe the next major candidate who will drop out will be Ohio congressman Tim Ryan. He seems on-edge, tired, and angry on stage, and is polling 0.3 according to Real Clear Politics. The kicker is that if he continues to run for president, he can’t run for re-election to the House of Representatives. His district only voted for Clinton by single-digits, but he is accustomed to winning by very large margins. The more his district sees him “abandoning” them for a long-shot presidential bid and his poor demeanor in it, the less popular he’ll become, and the more competitive his re-election will be. It’s best for him to pull the plug soon to reduce damage. He’ll have to drop out by December 11 if he wants to run for his House seat again, but if I were him, I’d do it a lot sooner than that.
Best Shot Tracker Changes
After a poor July debate performance, Kamala Harris is losing a lot of the support she gained after the first debate. Polling has shown Bernie Sanders to be resilient despite Warren’s surge among progressives. Kamala drops down to #4, while Bernie goes back to #3. Julian Castro also had a bad second debate after a good first, and he drops two points to #9, behind Andrew Yang, who has clinched a spot in the 2nd debate and is definitely in the conversation, even if he isn’t polling all that well. Some other changes were made farther down the list, but once you get passed spot 13, the difference is so negligible that it’s not really worth talking about. For their part, Tulsi Gabbard and Marianne Williamson, due to them being the most unique candidates, take spots 12 and 13, despite them not making the debates.
The Four Early States
Since all states began to use primaries or public caucuses, only one person, Bill Clinton, has ever won a major-party nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire, and no one has lost all 4 early states and then won. These 4 early states will set the stage and narrative for the blockbuster of this year’s Super Tuesday, where a third of all delegates will be awarded.
(The numbers after the candidates are their percent share of votes in the polling average)
Iowa: February 3, 2020
Polling Averages: Biden 26, Warren 18, Sanders 14, Harris 13.5, Buttigieg 7.5, Klobuchar 3.5, Steyer 2.5, Booker 2 (8% Undecided/ 5% For Candidates with 1% or Less)
Joe Biden is favored to win the Iowa caucuses, but if Warren performs well and Biden doesn’t, she could win. Kamala Harris could also pull out a victory if the other candidate’s vote is split the right way. But what people should take away from the Iowa caucus is what candidates got 15% or more of the vote. If a candidate fails to get 15% in a given state, it severely reduces their ability to get delegates from it. With the undecideds, all of the top 4 candidates are on track to get 15%, but Sanders and Harris just barely. It will become much easier for Warren in the future if she can unite enough progressives to deny Sanders 15%, and vice-versa. The same holds true for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, who’s the candidate that has the best chance of taking away some of Joe Biden’s heavy African-American support. While Iowa is overwhelmingly white, black voters in other states who already support Biden are unlikely to jump to a sinking ship, which is what Kamala’s campaign may become if she fails to get 15% in Iowa. Also watch if another candidate, probably Buttigieg, surges ahead and manages to get 15%, which would put him back in the conversation as a serious contender.
New Hampshire: February 11, 2020
Polling Averages: Biden 21, Sanders 19.3, Warren 14.7, Harris 9, Buttigieg 7, Gabbard 3.3, O’Rourke 2, Steyer 2, Yang 2, Klobuchar 2 (12.7% Undecided/5% For Candidates with 1% or Less)
New Hampshire borders Massachusetts and Vermont, where Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders come from respectively. This will be the state where the progressive to take on Biden (and/or Harris) will be chosen. Either that, or the progressive vote is split and Biden will gain a huge leg up. Bernie has the advantage right now, but politically aware progressives tend to support Warren, and more people will pay attention as the primary day nears. Can Warren surge? Can Sanders keep his base here from 2016? Also, the chance that Sanders gets less than 15% in Iowa, allowing Warren to become the main progressive candidate, is real. The real question is: Can the progressive that performed the best in Iowa win the state? That person would need to work very hard to win over voters that were going to vote for the other. If Biden wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will win the nomination.
Nevada: February 22, 2020
Biden 29, Sanders 23, Warren 12, Harris 11, Buttigieg 6, O’Rourke 3, Yang 3, Booker 3, Castro 1.5 (3.5%/5%) (Note: Only one reputable poll of Nevada has come out in the last month, making these figures less reliable)
The Nevada caucus is very unpredictable. It will be a chance for Biden and either Warren or Sanders to assert their dominance. It’s also a chance for Kamala Harris to save her campaign if things go sideways in Iowa. Whoever can tap into the state’s “Get Out The Vote” infrastructure will do very well here, and Biden, as Obama’s VP, is probably the best-positioned to do that. I’d expect Sanders to drop out if he can’t get 15% in any state at this point.
South Carolina: February 29, 2020
Biden 38, Sanders 14.3, Warren 12.7, Harris 12, Buttigieg 5, Booker 3, O’Rourke 1.3, Steyer 1.3 (7.4%/5%)
You’d think Kamala Harris would be at her best in South Carolina, given it’s large minority population, and it’s well-off, center-left whites. Nope. Instead, it’s Biden who has these kinds of voters in his column. Kamala Harris needs to improve her stance with African-Americans if she wants to win SC or the nomination. She needs to sound more relatable and release policy goals with African-Americans in mind, and also get delegates in Iowa and Nevada. This is a larger problem for her. Right now she’s only polling well in California, and as Marco Rubio in 2016 showed us, relying on your home-state alone to put you in a better spot is not a winning strategy. She needs to win an early state, probably South Carolina, to have much of a chance at the nomination. The progressive base isn’t as strong here, so if one of Sanders/Warren can crack 15%, it’s a good sign for that person. If Joe Biden is having a rough go in the first 3 states, his campaign hopes southern, minority-heavy states like South Carolina can bail him out, as more will vote on Super Tuesday.
Great analysis as always!