Let’s cut right to the chase. We’re making two Senate ratings changes today.
NC (Tillis) Toss-Up->Lean R
Initially, I thought based on past results and approval polls that incumbent Tom Tillis was in big trouble, and several Democrats would quickly jump on the train to take him on. The three I had in mind, Attorney General Josh Stein, Obama Cabinet member Anthony Foxx, and Charlotte mayor Vi Lyles, all look like they aren’t running. Instead, a pair of state senators, Erica Smith and Jeff Jackson, look like Democrat’s best prospects here. Both are relative unknowns statewide, and nothing I’ve seen from these two yet show they’re anything special. Tillis has raised over a million dollars so far this cycle in anticipation of his re-election campaign. Could Smith or Jackson prove me wrong about their skill as candidates in this large state? Yes. Could this race become Toss-Up again? Yes. But I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the incumbent.
TX (Cornyn) Safe R->Likely R
This move is in response to MJ Hegar, an Air Force veteran and author famous for her 2018 campaign add “Doors” declaring candidacy for Senate. She ran for the U.S. House in 2018, overperforming Clinton’s margin in the district by 10 points, even as she narrowly lost. Texas voted for Trump by 9 points. She definitely has what it takes, but running a campaign within a small congressional district and running one in a geographically huge, diverse state with over 28 million people are two totally different animals. Also of note is that even Beto O’Rourke couldn’t win in Texas. I still think Cornyn a big favorite, but he better not take this race for granted. I’d keep an eye on this one, as Hegar could become a political star. What could make this race even more interesting is if congressman Joaquin Castro runs for this seat.
One change I’m not making is in New Mexico. Some think Republicans might have a shot now that it’s an open seat, due to incumbent Tom Udall announcing his retirement. But Republicans got destroyed there in the midterms, losing all 3 congressional districts, and several Democrat heavyweights, like congressman Ben Ray Lujan, who heads the DSCC, the House Democrat’s main campaign arm, are running for the seat.
It seems as if a common theme is Democrats struggling to find good recruits to put more seats in play. Stacey Abrams isn’t running in Georgia, Gov. Steve Bullock stepped aside in Montana, and Former Gov. Tom Vislack stayed in his retirement in Iowa. All 3 of these candidates would’ve made their states much more winnable for Democrats. If Democrats don’t find decent candidates soon in Georgia or Iowa, both could join the Likely, or maybe even Safe Republican columns. Where Democrats have struck gold is Arizona and Colorado, where former astronaut Mark Kelly and state senator Mike Johnston have pulled in 4.1 million and 1.8 million, very impressive totals for an off-year election. Still, these candidates aren’t congressmen, statewide officials, former federal officials, nor celebrities, political or otherwise. These seats, however, were the only ones already in Toss-Up. So far, Democrats have failed to make more seats competitive. In order for Democrats to have a chance at taking the upper chamber, they need to get both Colorado and Arizona to be Lean Democrat, and move one more seat into Toss-Up, a big challenge. The B-list candidates in these states will need to work hard to get into the A-list. Republicans, on the other hand, seem to be enjoying relative success in recruitment, getting a top-tier candidate in congressman Bradley Byrne, solidifying their good position to pick up Alabama’s Senate seat. If they lose Alabama, Democrats would need to win the presidency and pickup 4 other seats to flip the Senate, a daunting task.
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