Prologue
So everything imaginable that could’ve gone wrong with the Iowa caucus went wrong, in addition to a few unimaginable things. I stayed up until almost midnight awaiting a result we didn’t get until late Thursday night. While Pete Buttigieg appears to have won the caucus by 2 state delegate equivalents, Bernie Sanders has won the popular vote by a little under 2%. But even with 100% of the vote counted, many major news networks aren’t projecting a winner. In the midst of the chaos and disorder in Iowa, there were several inconsistencies reported between the popular vote totals in a precinct and the state delegate equivalents candidates should’ve gotten from them. There were also reported disconnects between the vote totals recorded for a precinct at the DNC and the actual vote totals at the caucus site. Due to this, DNC chair Tom Perez requested a partial recanvas in Iowa. If one of the campaigns requests this recanvas by noon Monday (1:00 EST), the day-long process of going to each precinct and a making sure the DNC’s vote totals are the same as the actual vote totals begins. If 1:00 PM comes and goes without a request, the Iowa caucus will remain a draw between Buttigieg and Sanders. But if a recanvas happens, I’d tend to think Sanders could win outright. Most of the errors reported were pro-Buttigieg or anti-Sanders. It’s unlikely they would’ve found them all by now, given the crap show it’s been so far, and Sanders is only 2 state delegate equivalents behind (out of several hundreds).
But what we do know is that Joe Biden is sinking. He was barely viable statewide in Iowa, getting about 16% of the vote. This proved speculations that his support was “mile-wide and inch-deep”, and plenty of voters got away from him in Iowa. Joe Biden also openly admitted at a Democratic debate in Manchester that he’ll probably receive another hit in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, where polling shows him below the 15% threshold needed to get delegates. It’s clear he’s not a frontrunner anymore, he’s doing damage control fighting to survive. The gates have finally opened for Bernie Sanders.
I’m also moving Michael Bloomberg up to 3rd place on the Best-Shot Tracker. He seems to have an endless supply of money he’s using to essentially buy the nomination through ad buys, and it’s working so far. His national polling average is near 11%, above Pete Buttigieg, the partial victor in Iowa. He’s at 3rd place in some states that the other campaigns haven’t made much of a play for yet, like Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. He’s picking up swing-district congressional endorsements at a rapid pace. Don’t forget he now has a good chance of making the Nevada debate due to a DNC rule change.
What Happens Next?
Bernie Sanders has built up a lead in New Hampshire. After being a partial winner in Iowa, I think of the two people that can win the state, he’s the favorite to do so. New Hampshire moves from Toss-Up to Lean Sanders. The other person who could win is Pete Buttigieg. Despite the delayed result, he’s driving the momentum from his partial win in Iowa into New Hampshire, as state polling consistently shows him in a not-so-distant second place. In fact, a poll came out Saturday morning showing him in first place. If Pete can win New Hampshire, he could consolidate the “white center-left” wing of the party and have a real pillar of support going forward.
Still, even for the candidates that may not win on Tuesday, their performance still matters. If Elizabeth Warren fails to get 15% of the vote needed to get delegates and Sanders does well for example, it would show Bernie Sanders has control of the progressive wing of the party, and it’s likely Warren’s campaign would peter out. With a united progressive wing, Bernie Sanders could win the nomination against a center to center-left wing that could be fractured between 3 or 4 candidates. If Joe Biden fails to get 15%, it would show his grip on the white center-left wing of the party has slipped. He would have to rely on his support among African-Americans to remain viable. Up to this point, his support among the demographic has been as sturdy as bedrock. The South Carolina primary would become Joe Biden’s last stand. Right now, Warren and Biden are both polling at around 12.5% in New Hampshire, so the risk for both of them is high.
There unfortunately has been no new polling in Nevada, but past polling shows it is a Sanders and Biden-friendly state, and a Buttigieg and Warren-unfriendly one. No matter the result in New Hampshire, a Sanders win in Nevada seems the most likely outcome. The prospect of Sanders winning the most votes from the three earliest contests without a “southern firewall” left for Biden makes it even more important for Buttigieg to win New Hampshire if Sanders is to be stopped. If he does, it would be up to him to prove he can grow his support in urban and diverse areas to win Nevada. Polling nationally has not been kind to Buttigieg, so if he can’t win or come close in both New Hampshire and Nevada, his campaign will slowly die out. Or maybe Biden can begin to rebuild here by coming in 2nd. But Nevada moves from Toss-Up to Lean Sanders.
In South Carolina, polling shows Tom Steyer above 15%. As an older billionaire, his support is probably coming from moderates. Progressives don’t want another billionaire in the White House. He could take votes from Biden. South Carolina moves from Likely Biden to Lean Biden.
It looks increasingly like Michael Bloomberg will get hundreds of delegates on Super Tuesday. He’s essentially skipping the four early states, and may be immune to the momentum swings those contests could cause. His methods could lead to a big fracture in the party’s moderate wing. Things would become very difficult for the other moderates like Biden and Buttigieg, and it could lead to a contested convention or the nomination being thrown to Sanders. After is all is said and done, 7 different candidates could get delegates.
The Debate
One of the best ways a candidate can go about increasing his support in New Hampshire is by performing well in the debate in New Hampshire usually held a few days before the primary. New Hampshirites take their role as the first primary voters in the nation rather seriously. This year, this debate was held on Friday night.
It’s pretty much universally agreed that Amy Klobuchar had a good debate. She never got too angry or negative, incorporated humor alongside substance-filled policy goals, and wasn’t afraid to say what many centrist Democrats are thinking, that they’re scared of a Democratic Socialist (like Bernie Sanders) being at the top of their ticket. In the 12 hours after the debate, she raised $1 million. She needed this to happen. If she doesn’t get 15% in New Hampshire, her campaign will quickly run out of gas. It had looked like getting 15% was a longshot for her, but now it seems the odds of it are better, if not higher than 50%. The next few hours will be very important for her.
People went after Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders now that they’re frontrunners. Bernie came out of the debate with his usual bruising from candidates attacking his supposedly over-progressive ideas, which is unlikely to make a big dent in his progressive base. Mayor Pete came out less bruised. The only attack that really landed was Elizabeth Warren pointing out an increase of the arrests of African-Americans for marijuana possession in South Bend compared to white offenders. Warren used this as a way of saying Mayor Pete would be poor at criminal justice reform and ensuring racial equality. The problem is that this isn’t an issue the rural, majority white state of New Hampshire really cares about. But the attack may make it even harder for Pete to attract black support later on when it matters.
Joe Biden was much more aggressive in this debate, trying to break the stigma that he’s bland. He needed to after getting humiliated in Iowa. But he couldn’t deliver any real one-liners or knockout punches. There wasn’t really anything out of the ordinary in Warren, Steyer, or Yang’s debate. All of these candidates needed a good debate, one they didn’t get.
On Monday 6 PM EST, I will post my New Hampshire primary watch guide and my final predictions for who will get delegates, who will tank further, and who will win the primary.
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