And Then There Were 20
We’re getting to that time in the primary season where more people are leaving the race than joining it. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D, CA-15) dropped out this week. The field has been reduced from 21 to 20*. The Top 5 Polling changes after the first debate have resulted in me making many changes to the […]
2020 Senate Ratings Changes (and Non-Changes)
First, let’s start with the 3 ratings changes we’re making. Iowa Senate: Lean R -> Likely R Despite a deep bench in the state, the best candidate the Democrats have is Theresa Greenfield, a candidate for IA-3 in 2018. She didn’t make the Democrat primary ballot because her campaign manager forged the signatures she needed. […]
Will The Democrat Debate Change Anything? If So, How?
The two candidates that struck me and the nation as having done the best job are Julian Castro on the first night and Kamala Harris on the second night. 1st Night Castro was very charismatic and his attacks on Beto regarding immigration landed. People seem to be taking him a lot more seriously now, when […]
Summer Governor Race Updates: Democrat Fortunes Improve in Red States
I’ve made two rating changes since my last governor update, both favoring Democrats. I’ve moved the Montana governor race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, on account of Greg Gianforte, the journalist body-slamming congressman, running for Governor. While dark-blue on the presidential level, Montana is a much lighter shade of red down the ballot. It has […]
State Legislative Election Ratings: Part 3
This is the conclusion to my series on state legislatures. New York Senate (40-22 D) and House (106-43 D): Safe D The coalition of Republicans and moderate Democrats that allowed the Republican caucus to hold the New York Senate for many years is a distant memory after Democrats made smashing gains last year, as well […]
Data Study: If a Challenge to a Congressional Incumbent Emerges Early, Does it Improve the Chance of the Seat Flipping?
An action that’s often tempting for a young politico like me early on in the election cycle is changing race ratings whenever a certain candidate/certain number of candidates declare challenges to an incumbent. I wanted to examine whether this is a valid method or if I’m just desperate for a semblance of political action where […]
What’s Up With Michigan (And Texas)?
Two crucial ratings changes are being made in the Wolverine State today, but they don’t both benefit the same party. In the presidential race, we are moving the state to Leans Democrat. It was in Toss-Up before. Right now, Michigan is the only state that Trump won, or Clinton won, for that matter, that is […]
State Legislative Election Ratings: Part 2
Let’s start off right where we left off. Let’s look at 15 more states holding legislative elections next year. Illinois Senate (40-19 D) and House (74-44 D): Safe D The bigger question here is will Democrats be able to expand on their victories in 2018 by winning even more suburban Chicago seats? Or can Republicans […]
Kentucky Governor Primary, Congressional Special Election Today
Two important elections are taking place today. Polls are closing at 6:00 local time across the state of Kentucky, which is having a Democrat primary. The 3 candidates are state Attorney General Andy Beshear, who is the son of a popular former governor, Steve, State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins, and former state Auditor Adam […]
May Democrat Primary Update: Biden Becomes The Frontrunner
Despite some negative revelations about Biden before he announced, things have gone almost exactly right for him since he announced late last month. He has gotten a lot of press, allowing him to talk about what he stands for and right some of his past wrongs, such as supporting bus segregation in the 70’s and […]