My Ohio Re-District
A group of federal judges have declared the Ohio congressional map unconstitutional. So just like Michigan, I’ve drawn a custom congressional map for the state. Unlike Michigan, where it is unclear what party would benefit from a redistrict, it’s clear the Democrats would gain in Ohio. The current map is a 12-4 Republican gerrymander. In […]
April Senate Update: Blues For The Blues in Candidate Recruitment
Let’s cut right to the chase. We’re making two Senate ratings changes today. NC (Tillis) Toss-Up->Lean R Initially, I thought based on past results and approval polls that incumbent Tom Tillis was in big trouble, and several Democrats would quickly jump on the train to take him on. The three I had in mind, Attorney […]
New Redistricting Ordered in Michigan. Below is My Attempt at Redistricting the State.
A panel of federal judges have just declared Michigan’s gerrymandered congressional district maps unconstitutional and rigged to “historical proportions”. The court targeted districts 1, 4, 5, and 7-12 as particularly illegal. This is the first of up to four states that may have to redraw some or all of their congressional districts before 2020, the […]
State Legislative Election Ratings: Part 1
The 2018 state legislative election results were mixed. Democrats gained 309 seats overall and flipped 6 chambers, the New Hampshire Senate and House, the Maine Senate, the Colorado Senate, the Minnesota House, and the Connecticut Senate. However, Republicans still hold a majority of state legislature seats, and the party made gains in some key chambers, […]
Democrat Primary/2020 House: April 2019 Update
I know I did one of these like 2 weeks ago, but a lot has happened since then I’d like to talk about. Kamala Harris is the new Democratic frontrunner. I use that term lightly, this nomination is almost as pure of a Toss-Up as it gets. But chances are you’ve heard of the two […]
March Gubernatorial Update: Louisiana Special Elections Bode Well For John Bel Edwards
Last night, Jeremy Lacombe (D) won an election by 37 points in a state House district Trump carried by 18 points, a 55 point overperformance. Also, independent(!) Roy Adams won by 7 points against a Republican (no Democrat was in the race) in a district that Trump won by a similar margin in a 26 […]
Democrat Primary: March 2019 Update
Writer’s Note: I hope to do one of these every month until a nominee is selected. So, as you may (or may not) have seen already, we are making some changes to our Best-Shot Tracker. Former Vice President and Senator Joe Biden, businessman Andrew Yang and South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg have been added. Joe […]
Beto-mania 2.0
Former El Paso congressman and famous 2018 Texas Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke has declared candidacy for President as of yesterday. He is the 10th major candidate to do so. Beto is a young, charismatic candidate who came within 3 points of unseating Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, despite Texas’ republican lean. His opinions on any […]
2020 House Ratings
Republicans need to have a net gain of 17 seats to regain control of the House. Projected Range: D+4 to R+6 If you want to see the logic behind these ratings, click here: https://tossupcentral.com/category/house-2020/ For an interactive map, click here: https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/9MwkzEM
Initial 2020 House Ratings
After an embarrassing 40-seat loss in 2020, Republicans are looking to gain 18 seats and take back the house in 2020, or at the very least, make some significant gains. We’ll explore in this post if and how they can do it. Looking at the ratings board, Democrats have many more seats in Toss-Up than […]