October Congressional Ratings Changes
House Ratings Changes Since I last made a post devoted to Congressional Ratings changes late last July, situations have changed enough in 14 Congressional districts to warrant ratings changes. Most of these changes are for local and candidate-specific reasons, so they don’t say much about the national environment. District Old Rating New Rating AL-1 Likely […]
North Carolina Special Election Night Watch Guide
7:30 PM EST Tuesday, results will begin coming in for two special elections to the House of Representatives from North Carolina. Two vacancies will be filled. We will start with NC-3, the least competitive of the two. I am moving this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. This district voted for Trump by 23 […]
This is Turning Out to Be a Heck of a Week in Elections
Special Elections in Wisconsin, Georgia Republican Congressman Sean Duffy will resign in September. His wife is expecting their 9th child, but a complication related to the baby’s heart has been detected. He’s resigning to take care of his baby. It wouldn’t surprise me if he returned to politics sometime in the next decade, if all […]
How Competitive Is The House in 2020? A Roadmap For Republicans
At this point in the election cycle, any result between a Republican sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress, and the Democrats doing the same thing are all well within the realm of possibility. I’ve discussed a lot about the Presidency and Senate, but not so much the House. The first step for […]
With 49 Days To Go, a Favorite Emerges in NC-9
District Old Rating New Rating NC-9 Vacant Toss-Up Lean Republican The congressional re-do election between Dan McCready (D) and Dan Bishop (R), AKA “The Battle of the Dans” is one of the few marquee elections this year. It’s the only competitive congressional race this year, and thus money is flowing in. The candidates have raised […]
Data Study: If a Challenge to a Congressional Incumbent Emerges Early, Does it Improve the Chance of the Seat Flipping?
An action that’s often tempting for a young politico like me early on in the election cycle is changing race ratings whenever a certain candidate/certain number of candidates declare challenges to an incumbent. I wanted to examine whether this is a valid method or if I’m just desperate for a semblance of political action where […]
Kentucky Governor Primary, Congressional Special Election Today
Two important elections are taking place today. Polls are closing at 6:00 local time across the state of Kentucky, which is having a Democrat primary. The 3 candidates are state Attorney General Andy Beshear, who is the son of a popular former governor, Steve, State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins, and former state Auditor Adam […]
My Ohio Re-District
A group of federal judges have declared the Ohio congressional map unconstitutional. So just like Michigan, I’ve drawn a custom congressional map for the state. Unlike Michigan, where it is unclear what party would benefit from a redistrict, it’s clear the Democrats would gain in Ohio. The current map is a 12-4 Republican gerrymander. In […]
New Redistricting Ordered in Michigan. Below is My Attempt at Redistricting the State.
A panel of federal judges have just declared Michigan’s gerrymandered congressional district maps unconstitutional and rigged to “historical proportions”. The court targeted districts 1, 4, 5, and 7-12 as particularly illegal. This is the first of up to four states that may have to redraw some or all of their congressional districts before 2020, the […]
Democrat Primary/2020 House: April 2019 Update
I know I did one of these like 2 weeks ago, but a lot has happened since then I’d like to talk about. Kamala Harris is the new Democratic frontrunner. I use that term lightly, this nomination is almost as pure of a Toss-Up as it gets. But chances are you’ve heard of the two […]