October Congressional Ratings Changes
House Ratings Changes Since I last made a post devoted to Congressional Ratings changes late last July, situations have changed enough in 14 Congressional districts to warrant ratings changes. Most of these changes are for local and candidate-specific reasons, so they don’t say much about the national environment. District Old Rating New Rating AL-1 Likely […]
3 Days Until Round 1 in Louisiana
Let’s lay down the ground rules: In Louisiana’s election system for most races except the presidential race, all candidates from all parties participate in the same primary, held, in this year, on October 12th. If one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, they win right then and there. If not, the 2 candidates […]
This is Turning Out to Be a Heck of a Week in Elections
Special Elections in Wisconsin, Georgia Republican Congressman Sean Duffy will resign in September. His wife is expecting their 9th child, but a complication related to the baby’s heart has been detected. He’s resigning to take care of his baby. It wouldn’t surprise me if he returned to politics sometime in the next decade, if all […]
2020 Senate Ratings Changes (and Non-Changes)
First, let’s start with the 3 ratings changes we’re making. Iowa Senate: Lean R -> Likely R Despite a deep bench in the state, the best candidate the Democrats have is Theresa Greenfield, a candidate for IA-3 in 2018. She didn’t make the Democrat primary ballot because her campaign manager forged the signatures she needed. […]
Summer Governor Race Updates: Democrat Fortunes Improve in Red States
I’ve made two rating changes since my last governor update, both favoring Democrats. I’ve moved the Montana governor race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, on account of Greg Gianforte, the journalist body-slamming congressman, running for Governor. While dark-blue on the presidential level, Montana is a much lighter shade of red down the ballot. It has […]
Data Study: If a Challenge to a Congressional Incumbent Emerges Early, Does it Improve the Chance of the Seat Flipping?
An action that’s often tempting for a young politico like me early on in the election cycle is changing race ratings whenever a certain candidate/certain number of candidates declare challenges to an incumbent. I wanted to examine whether this is a valid method or if I’m just desperate for a semblance of political action where […]
What’s Up With Michigan (And Texas)?
Two crucial ratings changes are being made in the Wolverine State today, but they don’t both benefit the same party. In the presidential race, we are moving the state to Leans Democrat. It was in Toss-Up before. Right now, Michigan is the only state that Trump won, or Clinton won, for that matter, that is […]
April Senate Update: Blues For The Blues in Candidate Recruitment
Let’s cut right to the chase. We’re making two Senate ratings changes today. NC (Tillis) Toss-Up->Lean R Initially, I thought based on past results and approval polls that incumbent Tom Tillis was in big trouble, and several Democrats would quickly jump on the train to take him on. The three I had in mind, Attorney […]
Senate Race Ratings 2020
Coming off the 2018 elections, where Democrats lost Senate seats due to having a lot of seats to defend in Trump country, many of them hope for a better result in the 2020 elections, gaining the 3 seats they need to flip the chamber. 2 senators from each party are up for re-election in states […]