And Then There Were 19.
Governor Jay Inslee of Washington has dropped his no-chance bid for president. He announced it during an interview with Rachel Maddow. He said quite plainly “It’s becoming clear that I’m not going to be carrying the ball. I’m not going to be the president, so I’m withdrawing tonight from the race.” He ran a campaign […]
With 49 Days To Go, a Favorite Emerges in NC-9
District Old Rating New Rating NC-9 Vacant Toss-Up Lean Republican The congressional re-do election between Dan McCready (D) and Dan Bishop (R), AKA “The Battle of the Dans” is one of the few marquee elections this year. It’s the only competitive congressional race this year, and thus money is flowing in. The candidates have raised […]
Summer Governor Race Updates: Democrat Fortunes Improve in Red States
I’ve made two rating changes since my last governor update, both favoring Democrats. I’ve moved the Montana governor race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, on account of Greg Gianforte, the journalist body-slamming congressman, running for Governor. While dark-blue on the presidential level, Montana is a much lighter shade of red down the ballot. It has […]
State Legislative Election Ratings: Part 3
This is the conclusion to my series on state legislatures. New York Senate (40-22 D) and House (106-43 D): Safe D The coalition of Republicans and moderate Democrats that allowed the Republican caucus to hold the New York Senate for many years is a distant memory after Democrats made smashing gains last year, as well […]
State Legislative Election Ratings: Part 2
Let’s start off right where we left off. Let’s look at 15 more states holding legislative elections next year. Illinois Senate (40-19 D) and House (74-44 D): Safe D The bigger question here is will Democrats be able to expand on their victories in 2018 by winning even more suburban Chicago seats? Or can Republicans […]
Kentucky Governor Primary, Congressional Special Election Today
Two important elections are taking place today. Polls are closing at 6:00 local time across the state of Kentucky, which is having a Democrat primary. The 3 candidates are state Attorney General Andy Beshear, who is the son of a popular former governor, Steve, State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins, and former state Auditor Adam […]
State Legislative Election Ratings: Part 1
The 2018 state legislative election results were mixed. Democrats gained 309 seats overall and flipped 6 chambers, the New Hampshire Senate and House, the Maine Senate, the Colorado Senate, the Minnesota House, and the Connecticut Senate. However, Republicans still hold a majority of state legislature seats, and the party made gains in some key chambers, […]
March Gubernatorial Update: Louisiana Special Elections Bode Well For John Bel Edwards
Last night, Jeremy Lacombe (D) won an election by 37 points in a state House district Trump carried by 18 points, a 55 point overperformance. Also, independent(!) Roy Adams won by 7 points against a Republican (no Democrat was in the race) in a district that Trump won by a similar margin in a 26 […]
Major Elections Tomorrow: Chicago Mayor, NYC Public Advocate, CT State Legislature
Chicago Mayor Chicago’s mayor likely won’t be decided tomorrow. In the wake of incumbent mayor Rahm Emmanuel not seeking re-election, 14 candidates have declared, and unless one of them gets 50%, there will be a runoff election between the top two vote getters on April 2. With such a crowded field, candidates may only need […]
This is Turning Out to Be One Heck of a Day in Elections: 2/19/19
Let’s start off with the big news. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is coming back for more. He declared a 2nd presidential bid this morning. This announcement came as a surprise to me, mainly due to age. He would be 79 during his first inauguration, smashing the old record of 73, set by Ronald Reagan. By […]