Kamala Out
Some very, very big news in the Democrat primary. Kamala Harris, on Tuesday December 3rd, exactly 2 months before the Iowa caucus, dropped out of the presidential race. Once considered to be a frontrunner, her campaign didn’t even see 2020. Before, it was hard to imagine a Harris-less Democrat primary. Now, it is reality, and much sooner than thought. Harris’s dropping out comes a day after Montana governor Steve Bullock dropped out. We’re down to 15 candidates. Who knew 15 candidates would last longer than Kamala Harris? Who knew there would even be more than 15 candidates? The primary race so far has had no lack of surprises, and I’d expect more between now and the July 13-16 Democrat convention in Milwaukee.
Limited polling since her departure has suggested that no candidate will gain too much from her exit. She only polled about 3-4% in most polls, and she drew from a lot of different bases: Those looking for an alternative to the current frontrunners, California voters, African-American voters, people who wanted a non-Warren female as president, those who thought she was the most electable, etc. Her base was hardly a unit, so I don’t think they’ll monolithically move to another candidate.
The Rise and Fall of Elizabeth Warren
In other big news, Joe Biden has retaken his #1 spot on the Best Shot Tracker, meaning he is the frontrunner for the nomination. After Elizabeth Warren briefly polled above Joe Biden in early October, she has fallen about 14 points behind Biden, and even a point behind Bernie Sanders in national polling. Pete Buttigieg is even creeping up on her in national polling, only trailing her by 3 points. State-level polling isn’t much better for her: Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders are polling ahead of her in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
Her “rise and fall” seems to stem from one issue: healthcare. Elizabeth Warren endorses “medicare-for-all”, a system which would phase out private insurance companies and replace it with government-managed insurance for everyone. It struck a chord with some people early on, but as she appeared a frontrunner, people began asking this question: How would she pay for it? This question has been her Achilles heel. She says she could do it by raising taxes on only billionaires. But as media scrutiny of her plans increases, she has had trouble articulating and explaining how she will complete that endeavor, making conflicting statements about her plan, and even a few gaffes. People like Warren because she’s seen as the most intelligent candidate with a plan for everything. The last month or two haven’t been good for that reputation, and her support has gone down accordingly. If she does indeed not get the nomination, it’ll be because she peaked too early, and shriveled under the bright light of attention. Bernie Sanders, the other candidate who supports medicare-for-all, has made it clear that raising taxes on the middle class would be necessary. He combines that with saying that healthcare premiums for a majority of Americans will go down more than their taxes will go up. He’s more clear and concise about his healthcare plan, and he may be pulling some economically progressive voters away from Warren. I think Joe Biden retaking frontrunner status has more to do with Warren’s missteps than Biden’s successes, and he’s benefitting just because he’s seen as the other main candidate. I still wouldn’t rule Warren out entirely, local sources say she has the best ground game in Iowa, and she may find a way to recover.
So what about the other candidates? Joe Biden expanding his lead in national polling, probably due to Warren’s downturn. Notably, Joe Biden is in 4th place in Iowa and New Hampshire. In both of those states, the top 3 are in this order: Buttigieg-Sanders-Warren. It’s possible in the early states where candidates are more actively campaigning, Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders are capitalizing more off of Warren’s downturn. Perhaps Bernie Sanders is doing better at putting out his message and convincing people than many thought, and may have a chance. As campaigning revs up across the nation next year, perhaps we can expect these two to rise in national polling.
As Pete builds leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, he has contracted “frontrunner’s syndrome”. When someone is perceived to be a frontrunner, the campaigns ramp up attacks on that person to try to bring him back down. Buttigieg has a very short political record, he wasn’t even alive when Joe Biden started his second Senate term, so there’s not too much to attack. His baggage mainly comes from his record on race and law enforcement as South Bend mayor. He asked for the resignation of the city’s first black chief of police, Darryl Boykins, after it was discovered Boykins wiretapped the calls of some police officers, even though other chiefs of police did this too. Also, a white police officer shot and killed a black man who was robbing cars in South Bend while he was on the campaign trail. Buttigieg referred to the first incident as “his first serious mistake as mayor”, and the police officer in the second resigned as Buttigieg suspended campaigning to return to his home town to handle the crisis, comfort the people, and condemn police violence. He seems to have handled both pretty well, given that I had to research dirt on him instead of knowing about it before I wrote this article. Another attackable thing is also just his general lack of experience in big-time politics. Are these things enough to get people to reconsider their support for him? I would tend to think no, as the other frontrunners seem to have bigger problems, like Joe Biden and Bernie Sander’s age and the previously mentioned issues with Warren.
Can Mike Bloomberg’s Support Bloom?
Former mayor of New York City Micheal Bloomberg has already spent close to 100 million dollars on his presidential campaign 3 weeks into its existence, following a major national TV advertisement campaign. Right now, he’s polling nationally at 6%, which does represent an increase from the beginning of his campaign. As he firmly puts his name on the Democratic primary table with these ads, I’d expect, given his platform, for his support to increase further. However, there seems to be two consensuses developing about him. The question is will he be seen as a legitimate contender due to him being the well-known, politically active mayor of the country’s largest city, or the soda-taxing, pro-stop-and-frisk, greedy old fringe candidate who was too late to join the race and was a Republican for about half of his time as mayor? I see both taking hold at the same time. His support will grow, he might even get past Pete Buttigieg, but it becomes much harder for him to compete against the others later on, especially given he can’t qualify for the debates because he’s self-funding his entire campaign.
We are in the final weeks of 2019, and when the ball drops in Times Square, the campaigns will ramp up more than ever, and the Democrat primary will be in full swing. Until then, there’s so much uncertainty in the race that I’ll put the Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada primaries/caucuses into a 4-way Toss-Up. I think we should have a much better idea of how the Iowa caucus will go down in mid-January.
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