I know I did one of these like 2 weeks ago, but a lot has happened since then I’d like to talk about.
Kamala Harris is the new Democratic frontrunner. I use that term lightly, this nomination is almost as pure of a Toss-Up as it gets. But chances are you’ve heard of the two women that have spoken out against Joe Biden and the sexually uncomfortable encounters they’ve had with him. This is bad enough, but due to the Democratic electorate’s predisposition to believing women in these kinds of situations, as displayed during the Kavanaugh hearings, these accusations will likely solidify “old, white, male, establishment” as a valid attack against Biden in an electorate wanting diversity in political office. They’re more likely to want someone further down the intersectionality scale. Considering Harris was second to Biden anyway, I decided to put her on top. Not to mention that Joe might re-consider running after all this. But, as I’ve stressed before, I am not very confident in picking Harris as the frontrunner. Biden’s big polling lead will be a challenge to chip away.
Two Surprisingly Promising Candidates Rise
Businessman and political outsider Andrew Yang and South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg have both surprised me very much. I once considered them non-serious candidates, but Buttigieg is polling higher than 6 people on my list after a CNN town hall, which helped him in defining himself, something he needed to do. Yang was among the top 5 Democratic fundraisers this quarter. I’m moving Buttigieg up by 7 places, up above the people he’s polling ahead. I’m also moving Yang up by 4, above Julian Castro, a similar candidate and another relative outsider he’s outpolling and outraising, but behind John Hickenlooper, who has the experience advantage as a governor, even if he’s lagging a little behind. I mentioned Amy Klobuchar as a dark horse in my previous update, but I don’t see it now that Buttigieg is on the field, a Midwesterner who appeals to rust belt voters who will siphon a lot of votes from her. I still stress that these two candidates are still relative longshots compared to people higher up on the list. They still have a lot of work to do to get to be Tier-1 candidates. Kirsten Gillibrand and Jay Inslee continue their fall, each moving down by 2 places (due to Yang and Buttigieg passing them.) They moved down 1 last month, and it wouldn’t be surprising if one or both dropped out before the Iowa caucuses.
Another lesser-known candidate, Rep. Tim Ryan (D, OH-13) has declared candidacy. While he’s not on the best shot tracker (yet) because he’s merely a congressman, his declaration opens up his seat, that voted for Clinton by only 6 points, and gave Ryan a smaller margin in 2018 than in 2016, surprising given 2018 was a Democratic blowout in the house. Despite it’s dark-blue history, Democrats can’t take this seat for granted, now that the popular Ryan is gone. OH-13 moves from Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat.
Democrats who are uneasy about this change may find a bit more comfort in this one. ME-02 moves from Toss-Up to Leans Democrat. This district voted for both Trump and Obama by 10 points. The incumbent, Democrat Jared Golden, is one of the more moderate House freshman, and votes in line with this socially conservative district. No major Republicans have declared yet, and polling shows Jared Golden popular, and Trump unpopular, in Maine and this district.