Writer’s Note: I hope to do one of these every month until a nominee is selected.
So, as you may (or may not) have seen already, we are making some changes to our Best-Shot Tracker. Former Vice President and Senator Joe Biden, businessman Andrew Yang and South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg have been added. Joe Biden appears all but certain to run, as he actually has told some of his key supporters for donations once his campaign starts.(1) For what it’s worth, he also made a freudian slip at an event in Delaware, saying, and I quote “I have the most progressive record of anybody running for the – anybody who would run”. He’s running alright, and he takes the number one spot on our best-shot tracker. He’s led consistently in state and federal polling, and is the only candidate in the field to hold the vice-presidency, the stepping stone to the Oval Office. The other two, Buttigieg and Yang, have been candidates for a while now. They weren’t on the list because I didn’t consider them to be credible. However, Yang has almost gotten the number of donors required to make a debate, and Buttigieg polled 3% in today’s Emerson poll. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but he actually tied with Cory Booker in that poll, who is in the top half of my list. He also polled ahead of Amy Klobuchar, John Hickenlooper, Julian Castro, Jay Inslee, and Kirsten Gillibrand, who are also on the list. They take the bottom two slots, because I still have residual doubts as to how well these minor candidates can actually wage a national campaign. I’ll put Andrew Yang higher than Buttigieg, it seems like he has better fundraising skills and grassroots support (often employing the use of memes.) He has a main campaign talking point: universal basic income, while Buttigieg is less defined. If elected, Buttigieg would be the first openly LGBTQ+ president.
Now lets talk about polling. The RCP polling average, and average of all major pollsters, shows Biden on top with 29%. Sanders is 6 points behind, at 23%. Harris and O’Rourke have 10 and 8 percent, respectively. Warren has 6 percent, Booker has 4, Klobuchar 2, and the rest less than 2%. I think the top 4 have the best chances, with the next 3 being “second-tier” candidates. Klobuchar in particular could be a dark horse this cycle. She’s very popular in her home state of Minnesota, especially among the white working-class voters Democrats need to bring back to their side. If she can get an efficient campaign going, she could build a large coalition and make a big splash. The other two candidates, Booker and Warren, have name recognition, but also have their own problems, between Booker’s corporate past in an increasingly anti-corporate party and him being the mayor of Newark (’nuff said.) and Warren’s elite leftism. Among the first-tier candidates, I think Sanders will drop over time. His moment came and went in 2016 when he defied Hillary Clinton, and his age is definitely a concern. Biden’s support seems to be dwindling marginally in the polls as well, as Harris rises and O’Rourke climbs faster after his official declaration and his visits to Iowa. Needless to say, it will be a very competitive primary, to the point where declaring one candidate the favorite is almost foolish, and a brokered convention in Milwaukee is very possible. We have a minor change among the 3rd-tier candidates. Julian Castro, a rising star from Texas, would have been a second-tier candidate, but has been overshadowed by Beto O’Rourke. Still, he’s getting some support and traction, putting him above Kirsten Gillibrand and Jay Inslee, who, despite either coming from a large, blue state (Gillibrand) or had an early start (Inslee) just can’t seem to get a good poll. See you next month folks. If you want to see my posts about the top-tier candidates, you can see them below.
(Bernie Sanders)https://tossupcentral.com/this-is-turning-out-to-be-one-heck-of-a-day-in-elections-2-19-19/
(Kamala Harris)https://tossupcentral.com/kamala-harris-makes-it-official/
(Beto O’Rourke) https://tossupcentral.com/beto-mania-2-0/
(Joe Biden) I talk about him at the top of this post.