Things are looking down for Bernie Sanders. It is likely that after Tuesday, his delegate deficit will increase to 250 at the very least. After losing 5 out of 6 states last Tuesday, including all the contests with 20 or more delegates, Bernie should once again expect to be handed defeat in tomorrow’s contests, all of them in medium to large metropolitan states.
For once this year, a news story that isn’t the election is dominating headlines. This is of course the COVID-19 pandemic. People all across the country are working and learning from home, or are finding themselves jobless as restaurants and movie theaters close. Both campaigns have resulted to holding virtual town halls and rallies, and the Ohio governor is considering postponing the state’s primary. As much as it is in bad taste, Bernie Sanders must hope for a swing of support for him among lower-class people whose already shaky economic situations have become dire due to the disease. Some people have no source of income, or must leave their young children at home as they go to work in a dangerous environment. Some Americans feel sick, but don’t have access to testing. Desperation is setting in. Bernie must use this desperation to convince people an economic revolution is necessary. He wants people to think if they elect him, a future disaster won’t force some lower-class Americans to do immoral things, like leaving young children home unattended, or going to work, potentially spreading the virus, in order to pay their bills. He certainly campaigned towards these kind of people in last night’s debate, sharing words of comfort with them, re-assuring them that anything related to coronavirus is already payed for by the government after Trump’s national emergency declaration, while also giving examples of people who are suffering economically from coronavirus as reasons that an economic revolution is necessary. There was nothing particularly notable about Joe Biden’s debate performance, besides a few Freudian slips, which really isn’t a surprise. Given the desperate chapter America is in right now, I expect Sanders to gain some ballot-box support. But I don’t think it will be enough to win any state tomorrow night, as people haven’t really been thinking about whether they should support Joe Biden these last few days, they’ve been thinking about coronavirus. Coronavirus has already infected our minds, regardless of if it has infected our bodies yet.
7PM: Florida (219 Delegates)
It’s been well-documented that Florida will be one of Bernie Sanders’ worst states. Sanders’s praising of Fidel Castro’s literacy program will hurt his standing among Cuban-Americans. Florida is a much older state, as many retire there. Older voters have been supporting Joe Biden about as much as millennials support Bernie Sanders, which is a lot. I expect Biden to win by at least 80 delegates, if not more. Joe Biden is polling in the mid- to high-60s here.
7:30 PM: Ohio (136 Delegates) and Illinois (155 Delegates)
From the three midwestern presidential contests so far, it’s clear that Bernie’s support in the rural, industrial Midwest is crumbling without Hillary Clinton on the ballot, and it’s definitely not improving in cities. If Bernie wants to go the distance with Biden, he must win one of these states, and hope that the kinds of people I talked about earlier who are hurting from coronavirus’ economic impact, especially in big cities, vote for him in droves. Bernie’s better shot is in Ohio. Illinois has a higher African-American population and the Democratic establishment has a stranglehold on state politics. Still, polling in both of these states show Biden leading by more than 20 points. It will be too much to overcome in all likelihood. And, remember, there may not be an Ohio primary tomorrow.
10PM: Arizona (67 Delegates)
It always seems like the smallest states are the ones Bernie does best in. It continues tomorrow night, where I think Arizona will be his best state. The demographic structure of Arizona is similar to that of Nevada, Bernie’s best state so far outside of Vermont. It’s mostly desert where very few people live, with Phoenix, a bustling metropolis with over two million people, at its center, and a smaller city, Tucson, near the state border. It has a large Latino population and a significant low-income population. But polling here still shows Biden leading by double-digits. Why? Arizona is a primary and not a caucus, meaning it will have higher turnout, meaning that Bernie’s activist base won’t be the majority of people voting. Times have changed since Nevada, as Biden has consolidated the center-left lane of the party behind him, making him a much stronger candidate. Arizona, like Florida, has a lot of retirees and older people, who are much more likely to support Biden. I think he will win Arizona, completing his March 17th sweep. If Bernie is going to win this state, watch Maricopa County. It has over 60% of the state’s population, and has a large population of Latinos and low-income voters, the kind Bernie simply must do well with.
In conclusion, if Bernie fails to win a single state tomorrow night, as I project he will, he should seriously consider dropping out. It’s very possible that these are the last nominating contests to be held for a month or two, due to coronavirus. If he can upset in a state or two, then that shows his campaign still has life and force behind it, and he could stay with Biden until the very end.
