Senator Doug Jones (D-AL) made the risky decision to vote to convict President Trump even though Trump is very popular in his home state.

While the ongoing Democratic primary is taking up all of the attention, there are some subtle yet important developments in elections for the Senate. If a Democrat becomes president, his or her ability to actually carry out an agenda will depend on how many Democrats are in the Senate. Chances are not many Republicans lawmakers will support a Democratic president’s agenda. Let’s look at the changes.

Alabama: Lean R -> Likely R

The day incumbent Democrat Doug Jones chances of re-election blew away was February 4th, when he announced he would vote to convict president Trump. Alabama has consistently been polled to be one of the most Trump-friendly states in the Union. If Doug Jones was winning re-election, he would need to emphasize his ability to work with the President. Alabamans won’t take kindly his vote to join national Democrats in convicting the President, perhaps the most outright anti-Trump action a Senator could take. That, combined with Roy Moore (the alleged sexual predator who lost to Jones last time) polling 5% in Republican primary polls, pushes this race into Likely Republican territory, making it by far the most likely Senate seat to flip parties in either direction.

Kentucky: Likely R -> Safe R

Democrats needed to put their best foot forward to beat Mitch McConnell in this ruby-red state. Their likely nominee is air force pilot Amy McGrath, who despite being a fundraising machine, is an inconsistent and floppy campaigner. An example of this is during her congressional campaign in 2018. She appeared to be a moderate, but a video where she claimed to be the furthest left of anyone in Kentucky surfaced, causing her to blow an initial polling lead in a blue wave year. She send mixed messages, and it’s still unclear if Amy McGrath is running as a moderate or a liberal. What is clear is that she doesn’t have the wit or grit to beat McConnell in this state. The pipe dream stays in the pipe.

North Carolina: Lean R -> Toss-Up

I’ve always had a suspicion incumbent Republican Thom Tillis was in trouble. He has low approval ratings, he’s still unknown to a lot of North Carolinians, and he comes off as a bland, establishment type. Not to mention North Carolina has a history of Senate seats not staying with a party for too long. But what puts this Lean Trump state into Toss-Up for the Senate race is the immense 4th quarter fundraising of Cal Cunningham, the likely Democrat nominee. He raised $1.6 million, outraising Tillis. While Cal may not be the most charismatic candidate, he gets the job done as a sensible, local-minded, easygoing moderate, which as we saw in North Carolina’s special election in 2019, will take you places in suburbs. Democrats have evened the playing field in this crucial state.

Updated Senate Ratings

Have Democrat’s Chances of Taking the Senate Really Improved?

On a micro, state-by-sate level, outside of Alabama, they certainly have. Democrats have put up good candidates as Republican Senators have been forced to make some unpopular decisions regarding impeachment. Vulnerable GOP Senators Cory Gardner (Colorado), Martha McSally (Arizona), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), and Kelly Loeffler (Georgia), not only acquitted president Trump, they didn’t even call for witnesses and documents in the trial, an unpopular move that solidifies their image as shady establishment conservatives. Meanwhile, Democrats have put up worthy candidates in each of those states. John Hickenlooper has proven to be electable in Colorado, and remains popular from his time as Governor. Teresa Greenfield (Iowa) and Mark Kelly (Arizona) are fundraising machines. Kelly Loeffler has to deal with a primary challenge from her right in Congressman Doug Collins. Susan Collins (R-ME) is dealing with the highest disapproval ratings of her career.

It’s looking more and more likely that Kris Kobach will be the Republican nominee in Kansas. He could be described as Donald Trump on PED’s, and offensive to the state’s large moderate population. He only got 43% in the state’s governor race in 2018. Let’s not forget about registered independent Dr. Al Gross’s insurgent campaign in Alaska raising a ton of money (by Alaska standards) as well. Democrats have realistic chances in all of these races. Assuming they lose Alabama, they’d need to flip 4 of the 8 states mentioned above. So looking at it like that, they have a pretty good chance.

But they need to capitalize on these chances. As the Democratic candidates have exposed each other’s various bountiful flaws and pitfalls, it looks unlikely the top of the ticket will be providing meaningful coattails. Remember, only two Republicans Senators are running for re-election in states that Hillary Clinton won, they’ll need two more. The presidential race will be close, and I doubt Democrats will improve substantially on Hillary Clinton’s 2-point popular vote victory. Democrat Senate candidates will need to stand out from the national party, and hope people split their tickets national-wide to support down-ballot Democrats. There’s no doubt these Democrats will have to work hard to do this, remember that no state in 2016 voted for different parties for President and Senate. Despite fundraising, I don’t know if candidates like Mark Kelly, Cal Cunningham, and Sara Gideon are actually vibrant enough to stand out and create their own personal brands. So looking at the Senate races from a birds-eye national view, Democrat’s chances have decreased.

In conclusion, I believe that Democrat’s chances of taking the Senate have decreased to about 1 in 4. This is because chances are becoming better that they will have to flip 5 Senate seats (if they lose Alabama and the presidency). However, they now have an array of credible candidates in each competitive race barring Georgia, and are readier than ever to perform the task of flipping five states, even in the face of a mediocre performance at the top of the ticket.

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