In 6 days, a congressional special election will finish in California’s 25th district, north of Los Angeles. It will largely be a vote-by-mail election, as in-person voting options are limited due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Republicans hope to stave off the blue tide in California by flipping the seat, while Democrats seek to confirm their supremacy. Both parties hope for positive headlines amid this present crisis. This article will be rather short and to the point, so you aren’t up to date about this election, I’d recommend clicking on this link: https://tossupcentral.com/as-coronavirus-takes-hold-republican-chances-of-flipping-the-house-diminish/. This will take you to the last Toss-Up Central article that talked about this election. I discuss it in the section of the article dubbed as “The Golden State: Toss-Up Central”.

I’m moving the CA-25 special election from Toss-Up to Leans Republican. Up until about a week ago, it looked as if this race would go down to the wire. However, three developments in particular have put Republican Mike Garcia, on top. Garcia was a fighter pilot in the U.S. Navy, a credential he wears as a badge of honor. He probably tells people about it more than Bob Vance tells people about his refrigeration company. Most of his TV ads have an army plane in the background. This led to assemblywoman Christy Smith, the Democrat in the race, mocking his credentials in a Zoom video to supporters, essentially saying the planes were just props and that he really has “no experience in international affairs”. That’s a big no-no in this district, which is home to an air force base. Secondly, in the final days of this election Republicans nationally seem all-in on Mike Garcia, while Democrats seem more reluctant to spend much on Christy Smith, as they’ve done in the past for other candidates in other special elections. Democratic insiders don’t seem all that optimistic about Smith. Finally, registered Republicans are outpacing registered Democrats so far in the number of ballots returned, 41,000 to 33,000. In a vote-by-mail election, every registered voter in the district is given a ballot a few weeks before election day. It is then up to that person to fill out their ballot and mail it off to the polling place. The COVID-19 pandemic complicates things further. As people lose their jobs and scramble to make ends meet and keep them and their loved ones safe and healthy, they’re not exactly thinking the most about who to vote for in a special election, let alone venturing out to their mailbox and risking infection to cast their vote. The people who do vote are more likely to vote the party line, as some won’t have time to really consider the other option. Most agree Mike Garcia is the beneficiary of this current voting situation.

Polls close in this district 8 P.M. local time, or 11 P.M. on the East Coast. The unfortunate thing about a vote-by-mail election is that the results will gradually trickle in over several weeks, and if the election is close margin-wise, it could theoretically take that long to confirm a winner.

This district spans parts of two counties, Los Angeles, where 80% of the voters live, and Ventura, where 20% of the voters live. If Garcia gets 49% of the Los Angeles vote and 55% of the Ventura vote, he will most likely win. If Smith gets 52% of the Los Angeles vote and 46% of the Ventura vote, she will most likely win. These are good benchmarks to refer to as the results roll in.

This election will be a good indicator of people’s real political attitudes during this crisis. Most polls show support for Trump fading as Americans view his virus response as scattered and not strong enough. But then you’ll get the occasional poll showing Trump tied with Biden or breaking even in approval ratings, which could suggest a “rally around the flagpole effect” around Trump similar to what George W. Bush enjoyed after 9/11 or Barack Obama after Superstorm Sandy. If Christy Smith pulls of the upset, the message is that suburban Americans have such a dislike of Trump that they’d elect a problematic Democrat over a charismatic Republican. If Garcia flips this Clinton-voting district, it would be more evidence that Americans of all stripes are turning to their leaders during this national emergency. Hopefully, we’ll know more about which scenario will play out by this time next week.

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2 Responses

  1. I’m hardly an election expert, but I’ve watched enough of them in California to know that Democrats usually wait till the last minute to mail in their ballots. That why the state still collects ballots a few days after Election Day, so long as they have been post marked by Election Day. I would take the number of ballots returned with a grain of salt. That’s my two cents.

    1. You’re right about that, but Garcia has had a very good final week, so I think if Smith gets a bump, it won’t be enough to get her to 50%+1.

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