Today, a special election is being held for the 11th district of the Minnesota Senate, based in suburban and rural areas southwest of Duluth, that became vacant after Democrat Tony Lourey joined the cabinet of the governor. While this isn’t a congressional election, many are treating it as one. Republicans only hold a one-seat advantage in the Minnesota Senate, and they shouldn’t be optimistic about holding it in 2020, seeing as there are many suburban seats they will have to defend that turned hard-left in 2018, a year this chamber didn’t hold regular elections. Or at least, they shouldn’t have been until this seat became open. Now, the Republicans can be on offense. If they win tonight, they can lose 1 seat in 2020 and still hold the chamber, so their chances of holding it really improve.
If the Democrats can flip the chamber in 2020, the Democrats would control the whole legislature and the governorship, ushering in more liberal policy, especially on working class and union issues.
So who’s the favorite? That’s a hard question to answer. The Democrat is Stu Lourey, son of the former incumbent, running on healthcare and the working class, and state Rep. Jason Rarick, running on conservative social issues, and a union member. What’s the district like? You have red farmland in the south, compared to the more blue industrial areas and the Fond du Lac Native American reservation in the north. Trump won this district by 14 points, Obama won it in 2012 by 11 points, and 2018 Democrat gubernatorial candidate Tim Walz won it by 2 points. A similar congressional race, MN-01, last year voted Republican by only 0.5%. So, obviously, a lot of conflicting facts here, so I’ll declare this race a Pure Toss-Up.