After an embarrassing 40-seat loss in 2020, Republicans are looking to gain 18 seats and take back the house in 2020, or at the very least, make some significant gains. We’ll explore in this post if and how they can do it. Looking at the ratings board, Democrats have many more seats in Toss-Up than the GOP, 14-4. But even if the GOP swept the Toss-Up Races, which is extremely unlikely, they’d still come up 4 short of a majority. They’ll need to pull seats from the Lean and Likely categories. Looking at them, however, it’s perfectly balanced, as all things should be. Both parties have 22 seats in likely and 15 in Leans. What are the odds? This shows Democrats have a real shot at increasing their majority. A lot obviously depends on how the presidential race goes. Redistricitng court cases and national party messaging also matter a good deal. Unfortunately, I can’t make sections for each individual race in the House, like in the Senate, because there’d be 90 races I’d have to type about! That’d be tedious to type and even more so to read. So I’m going to broad-stroke certain kinds of districts and incumbents and talk about them as a group.
The Non-Events
An election junky may notice some races not on this list that perhaps should be. Co-06 (Crow), MN-03 (Phillips), PA-05 (Scanlon), PA-06 (Houlahan), PA-17 (Lamb), and VA-10 (Wexton) flipped from Republican to Democrat a year ago, suggesting they may be competitive. But huge Democrat margins in these districts speak for themselves. NJ-05 (Gottheimer, D) and FL-25 (Diaz-Balart, R) both represent district Trump only won by less than two points, but themselves won by very comfortable margins last year.
Democrat Held Seats:
Clinton Suburban Flippers: 14 (Likely Democrat: AZ-2, CA-25, CA-49, FL-26, FL-27, IL-6, KS-3, TX-32 Lean Democrat: CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, NJ-7, TX-7, WA-8)
19 Suburban districts that voted for Hillary Clinton flipped to Hillary Clinton last time. These areas are trending even bluer, and it will be a challenge for the GOP to flip them back, as the Democrats have many seemingly strong incumbents in these seats. The GOP should put up moderates who share some of suburbanites views about Trump, preferably with no record to attack. Recruiting candidates of color, especially in Florida and California, is probably a good idea for the GOP. Seats in Likely Democrat saw larger margins for Clinton or the Democrat’s 2018 candidate, while Lean Democrat races were closer on both fronts.
Rural Flippers: 9 (Likely Democrat: CA-21 Lean Democrat: CA-10, NY-19 Toss-Up: IA-1, IA-3, ME-2, NM-2, NY-22, VA-7)
Many of these seats are in white, working-class districts that swung from Obama to Trump and are trending red, or were decided by tiny margins, making these seats particularly competitive. The one Likely Dem seat, TJ Cox (CA-21), voted for Clinton by 15 points. The Lean Democrat seats, Josh Harder (CA-10) and Antonio Delgado (NY-19) have weak partisan leans with incumbents that have proven to be strong fundraisers. Those two appear to be must-wins for Republicans looking to retake the House. One way for the GOP to retake the house is if Democratic donors are laser-focused on the presidential race, overlooking the House races, and the Democrats lose the presidential race again, so they can compete with strong fundraisers like Harder and Delgado.
Swing District Democrat Holds: 3 (Likely Democrat: CT-5 Lean Democrat: NH-1, NV-3)
These districts have freshman Democrats that didn’t flip a Republican seat, but are in competitive districts nonetheless. While these three had larger margins last year, the Republican candidates they faced were lackluster at best. I expect Republicans to really push these incumbents hard in 2020, making their races much more competitive. Jahana Hayes (CT-5), in particular, has the potential to be a sleeper race this cycle, due to the districts elasticity and it only voted for Clinton by 4 points.
Veteran Swing-District Democrats: 9 (Likely Democrat: FL-13, IA-2, IL-17, NH-2, NY-18, WI-3 Lean Democrat: AZ-1, PA-8 Toss-Up: MN-07)
All these districts have Democrats that have served for more than one terms, which means they have survived at least 2016, many of them have survived a red wave election or two. These battle-tested incumbents will be hard to beat. Many of these districts are shifting red because of Trump, and Republicans hope that combined with a stronger challenger than in previous elections, that they might be able to topple some of these incumbents. Based on performance last cycle by both parties, the seats in Lean and Toss-Up are where I expect them to find more success. Collin Peterson (MN-07) is the only non-freshman Democrat in Toss-Up, as his district voted for Trump by 30 points.
Trump Suburban Flippers: 10 (Likely Democrat: MI-11, MN-2, NJ-11 Lean Democrat: MI-8, NJ-2, VA-2 Toss-Up: GA-6, IL-14, NJ-3, UT-4)
These are suburban districts that were won by Trump but flipped to Democrats nonetheless last year. These districts are trending blue to various degrees, with the exception being UT-4, where a 3rd party candidate on the presidential level split the Republican vote in Utah, and that vote will likely be consolidated under Trump in 2020. Typically, candidates with higher margins of victory were in Likely Democrat, as well as those who have adapted to their districts. Candidates who just made it with low margins of victory who appear to liberal for their districts are in Toss-Up.
The 2018 Flukes: 3 (Toss-Up: NY-11, OK-5, SC-1)
These three seats are semi-urban seats where Democrats pulled upset victories last year. all three appear to be ripe pickup opportunities, because the three incumbents in these seats no longer have the advantage of being under the radar, and are likely to be pummeled with attack ads. Trump won all of these seats by double digits.
This Category Includes Both Parties:
Scandalous!: 9 (Likely Democrat: CA-7, NV-4 Lean Republican: CA-50, FL-15, IA-4, NY-27 Likely Republican: AK-AL, AZ-6, CA-22, FL-16, MT-AL
All the incumbents in these seats have either been involved in a scandal, or have made some unsavory remarks. Some have done both. Most of them are in districts that wouldn’t be given a second thought without their scandal. The rating here depends on the severity of one’s scandal, as well as the recency. Chris Collins (R, NY-27) and Don Young (R, AK-AL) both have pretty bad stuff hanging over them, but Young is the Dean of the house and has survived several elections under the clout of scandal, while Collins only survived one, and it was by hundreds of votes, hence the different ratings. Good challengers to these candidates will act as easygoing centrists who show the contrast between themselves and their opponents.
Republican Held Seats:
Suburban Survivors: 20 (Likely Republican: IN-5, NC-2, NC-13, NY-2, OH-12, OH-14, TX-2, TX-22, TX-31, WA-3, WI-1 Lean Republican: MO-2, NY-1, OH-1, PA-1, PA-10, TX-10, TX-21, TX-24 Toss-Up: GA-7, NE-2)
Despite the large amount of suburban seats the Democrats flipped last year, Democrats still have plenty of targets to go after. I think now would be a good time to talk about the “wave receding” effect. Obviously the Democrats had a huge wave in the House in 2018, winning the house popular vote by 8.6%, their highest margin in a decade. However, all waves must recede. In my other post, Assessing the Political Environment for 2018(1), I explain why I expect 2020 to be a neutral year, without one party holding a big advantage. Even if Trump loses, the national environment will still likely be several points more Republican than it was in 2018. Democrats hope this doesn’t bring too much of a drag on the House races, and the suburbs will keep on trending blue so they can keep on flipping them. Republicans hope that the suburbs have reached their peak “blueness” and will slowly begin to turn back to their side after House Democrats unveiled very liberal proposals, like the Green New Deal. If the latter is true, the Republicans may end up losing only a handful of seats they currently hold. While it would be a drag to talk about each race individually, the factors that led to my ratings in this category were performance last cycle, how fast a district is trending blue, and how far the Democrats really pushed these incumbents last year. In the latter factor, less is more for team blue. If the Democrats threw everything they had at a certain incumbent, and he survived it shows he’s hard to beat. If they didn’t really focus on an incumbent last year, but did this year, the Democratic challenger to that incumbent could perform a lot better.
Close Calls: 9 (Likely Republican: KS-2, KY-6, MN-8, PA-16 Lean Republican: IL-13, MI-6, MN-1 Toss-Up: NC-09, TX-23)
Democrats arguably underperformed expectation last year in rural and red areas last year, failing to beat some flawed incumbents and to have appeal to these voters. There were however, some very close calls. All of these district, except MN-8, were won by Republicans by les than 5 points last year, many by much less than that. Usually, the closeness of these races was the product of a strong Democratic candidate, whom may or may not run again. The Lean Republican districts have weaker partisan leans than the Likely ones. In one of the Toss-Up seats, Will Hurd (TX-23), the district voted for Hillary Clinton, while in the other (NC-09), an entirely separate election will be held in 2019 because the supposed victor of the 2018 race, Mark Harris, had some people in his campaign engage in voter fraud. Harris is not running in the new election, but his Democratic rival, Dan McCready, is. He’s already getting ready for the race and has raised some good money, while the Republican nomination is wide open.
Miscellaneous: 2 (Likely Republican: AL-1, NY-24)
These races don’t really fit well into a given category. I explain my rating for AL-1 in further detail in my post about the incumbent’s run for Senate.(2) John Katko (NY-24) is known for high margins of victory in a district won by both Obama and Clinton. But I still feel uneasy about putting Katko in Safe, because his district was won by Democrats on the presidential level, and his wins are getting less impressive every cycle. He should still be fine though.
In conclusion, the House Leans Democratic for 2020, due to the Democrats having 221 seats in Toss-Up, more than the 218 needed for a majority. Nonetheless, I expect Republicans to make single-digit gains, as Democrats hold 14 of the 18 Toss-Up seats, and I would expect the 2018 wave to recede, if only by a little bit. The range of expected outcomes right now ranges from a Democrat gain of 1 seat to a Republican gain of 11. Look for state legislative ratings later this month.
(1)https://tossupcentral.com/assessing-the-political-environment-for-2020/
(2)https://tossupcentral.com/this-is-turning-out-to-be-one-heck-of-a-day-in-elections-2-19-19/