The New Jersey and Virginia governor elections are now less than two years away. I rated this year’s general elections in January and February of 2019. Those two dates were also a little less than two years apart. Given the interesting developments that have occurred in both states, I feel it appropriate to give my initial ratings for the two states.
Likely Democrat
Phil Murphy (D-NJ)
While New Jersey is decidedly a blue state, it’s not as blue as some of the states surrounding it. It voted for Hillary Clinton by 14 points, and elected Democrat governor Phil Murphy by basically the same margin in 2017. However, one would’ve expected then-candidate Murphy to do a little better given the blue tide that year and the fact New Jersey is a heavily suburban state.
Murphy’s tenure in office has been defined by intra-party battles with State Senate leader Steve Sweeney over how to handle issues like the state’s high debt and cost of living. Murphy wants to increase the state’s wealth tax, while Sweeney wants to cut government employee benefits and pensions. While they feud in Trenton, few major things have been done to actually solve these problems, resulting in low approval ratings for the Governor. Because of this, there may be an opening for a Republican in the state. But remember, New Jersey re-elected scandal-plagued Senator Bob Menendez by 12 points in 2018. It’s no stranger to shady politicians, so Murphy’s antics won’t cost him as much here as it may have in another state that isn’t Illinois.
The only Republican to declare so far is 2017 governor candidate Jack Ciattarelli, but Republicans have a semi-deep bench of candidates, including well-known State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean and 2017 governor candidate Kim Guadagano.
Toss-Up
VA (Open)(Northam)
Virginia has transformed from a purple state in 2014 to a lean blue state in 2016 to a haven for liberal Democrats and a place the GOP can’t seem to catch an electoral break no matter what now. It’s easy to forget that the state only voted for Clinton by 5 points, even with her running mate, Tim Kaine, being popular there. Incumbent Governor Ralph Northam is term-limited.
Ralph Northam is a governor well-known for the wrong reasons. He became famous for a decades-old yearbook photo in which he appears to be wearing blackface next to someone else dressed up as a member of the KKK. Even worse, two other Democratic statewide officials, Attorney General Mark Herring and Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax have scandals of their won. Herring also wore blackface, while Fairfax has been accused of raping two women. These scandals has diminished positive feelings about the Democratic establishment in Virginia. Do you want to know the two Democrats that have declared candidacy for the Governorship? Mark Herring and Justin Fairfax. If one of them is the nominee, people wouldn’t exactly be excited to vote for them, and the results could be disastrous for the Democrats. It’s likely the Democrat candidate for Governor of Virginia will underperform the 2020 Democrat presidential candidate in the state margin-wise, especially if the presidential candidate wins Virginia by 4 points or more.
Another X factor is what party will hold the White House, less than 2 miles from Virginia’s borders. Virginia is also a heavily suburban state, and many suburbs all across the nation and in Virginia have been trending left due to a dislike of Donald Trump. While it’s not impossible Republicans win the Virginia governorship if Trump is re-elected, he will definitely weigh the party down in this state, requiring the GOP to perhaps push harder than they are willing to push. If there’s a Democrat in the White House, then disdain for Trump decreases as he becomes less relevant, and it may swing towards the Democrat in the White House, only adding to Virginia Democrat’s problems, and further widening the opening for Republicans.
Ever since Democrats took control of the State House, Ralph Northam has governed more like the Governor of Maryland than the Governor of Virginia, a state that still has a good deal of conservative Southerners, with traditional Democrat goals on his agenda, like gun control. It’s clear he outrages rural, southern Virginia, as several thousands of people protested a package of gun control bills he supports outside the Virginia State House on Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
Given the downside for Democrats in the state, and the unknown variables like the occupant of the White House and both party’s nominees, a Toss-Up rating is the most reasonable conclusion. Potential Republican candidates include Congressman Denver Riggleman and former Congressowman Barbara Comstock.
A Shifting Scene in Vermont
Despite hailing from the deep-blue, progressive state of Vermont, Republican governor Phil Scott is one of the nation’s most popular governors, with a 65% approval rating. He probably owes this to his fiscally conservative and socially liberal style of governing. I initially had this race as Likely Republican. However, Phil Scott’s own Lieutenant Governor, David Zuckerman, has challenged him. He isn’t even officially a Democrat, he’s a member of the Vermont Progressive Party, but he’s running in the Democratic primary. He’s someone who could captivate progressive-leaning voters, who are probably a majority of the voters in Vermont. This race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. I don’t think it’s Toss-Up yet, Phil Scott’s popularity is not to be underestimated, he won re-election last year by 15 points, and Zuckerman may also prove too liberal, even for Vermont, to win a general election.
The Gubernatorial Landscape
With two Democrat-held governorships in Toss-Up, it’s more likely Republicans gain a seat in the next two years instead of Democrats. If Democrats want to counter this possibilty, they’ll need to upset a popular Republican governor in either Vermont or New Hampshire. Even that doesn’t guarantee them a majority of state governorships, which I said at the beginning of 2019 should be their goal for 2020. In order to get that, they’d also need to hold Montana and pull another upset in either West Virginia or Missouri. Fortunately for them, in both states, Democrats have recruited dynamic candidates that have won elections in very red places, State Senator Ron Stollings of West Virginia and State Auditor Nicole Galloway of Missuori. They’d also need to hold Virginia in 2021 if they want to sustain that majority until the next midterm elections. It’s an uphill, but winnable battle for Democrats.
Thank you for reading my article. If you want more, visit my home page: https://tossupcentral.com/. Usually, I’ll post new articles every other Sunday at 6PM. But with the Iowa caucus so close, I’ll post another one next Sunday at 3PM, so as to not interfere with Super Bowl 54.
A portion of this article was posted on Elections Daily on Friday. Elections Daily is a website where some of the most skilled, well-written Twitter election watchers have gathered to write articles. Check it out here: https://elections-daily.com/