July House Update: Democrats Push The Battlefield Into Red Territory

In February, when it was looking like Bernie Sanders would be the Democratic nominee, before COVID-19 and George Floyd’s death, but after the killing of ISIS leader Baghdadi, the USMCA trade deal that de-escalated the Chinese trade war, and Trump’s acquittal by the Senate, thing were looking up for the Grand Old Party. The question back then was whether or not Republicans would rebound from the 2018 wave and pick up the 18 seats necessary to flip the U.S. House of Representatives.

What a difference five months can make. After the federal government’s botched response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the nomination of a less radical, inoffensive Democrat in Joe Biden, and a massive civil rights movement that has made Americans more aware of the racism, systemic or otherwise, that still exists around them, and thus less likely to support Trump, the question seems to be whether Republicans will enjoy a net gain in the House at all. Since last month, I have made 20 House ratings changes, 18 of which are in favor of Democrats. House seats Republicans were expected to easily hold have are now shaping up to be bitter battles, and the number of Democratic-held seats they can expect to flip has dwindled quickly. Therefore, I am moving my rating for the House overall to Safe Democratic. There is no longer a realistic possibility that Republicans have the net gain of 17 seats needed to flip the House. The Democratic party has established a clear fundraising advantage in down-ballot races. Poor Republican candidates have made it a lot harder for them to flip a lot of key Democratic seats, and a lot of GOP incumbents find themselves vulnerable, so the party will devote most of its resources to incumbent protection as opposed to dislodging Democratic incumbents.

District (Incumbent, Party)	Old Rating	New Rating
AK-AL (Young, R)	Likely R	Lean R
AZ-6 (Schweikert, R)	Lean R	Toss-Up
CA-4 (McClintock, R)	Safe R	Likely R
CA-25 (Garcia, R)	Lean R	Toss-Up
CA-45 (Porter, D)	Lean D	Likely D
CO-3 (OPEN, R)	Safe R	Lean R
CT-5 (Hayes, D)	Likely D	Safe D
IN-1 (OPEN, D)	Likely D	Safe D
IN-5 (OPEN, R)	Likely R	Lean R
KY-6 (Barr, R)	Safe R	Lean R
MT-AL (OPEN, R)	Likely R	Lean R
NC-9 (Bishop, R)	Likely R	Safe R
NH-1 (Pappas, D)	Lean D	Likely D
NJ-3 (Kim, D)	Toss-Up	Lean D
NY-22 (Brindisi, D)	Lean R	Toss-Up
OH-1 (Chabot, R)	Lean R	Toss-Up
OH-12 (Balderson, R)	Likely R	Safe R
PA-8 (Cartwright, D)	Lean D	Likely D
TX-3 (Taylor, R)	Safe R	Likely R
TX-6 (Wright, R)	Safe R	Likely R
WA-8 (Schrier, D)	Likely D	Safe D

Money, Money, Money

The dilemna House Republican candidates seem to be falling into is a question of money vs. ideology. A spike in Democratic activism following the election of Trump has resulted in Democrats having a much more robust fundraising infastructure than Republicans, leaving Republican candidates with less “help” than their Democratic counterparts. Trump has many dedicated supporters across the nation that are more likely to donate to a candidate that calls him or herself a “conservative” or a “Trump supporter” that will make sure the “socialist Democrats” don’t take control of the country. Invoking Trump’s name a lot and campaigning as his minion is a good way to get the attention and thus money to get your campaign going. However, Trump is becoming toxic for many swing voters. So the question for these start-up candidates is do they potentially offend the swing voters in their districts to get some easy money, or do they campaign as smart, compassionate, reasonable moderates distant from Trump, with the cost of having to work harder for money and the potential of losing your party primary or never getting traction because you haven’t caught the attention of your donor base. Republicans are on very thin ice with many swing voters, so candidates can’t have it both ways. Indeed, there is a market for GOP moderates or Trump-distant candidates, but those candidates have to be particularly skilled to cut through all the national political noise and get attention. Some, like David Valadao (CA-21) or Nancy Mace (SC-1) have succeeded in tapping into that market. Most others have failed.

A lot of my ratings changes simply boil down to the opposing party not raising enough money to seriously contest a seat. CT-5, IN-1, and WA-8, three seats that already lean blue, move from Likely to Safe Democratic. Democrats need not worry about these three seats. CA-45, PA-8, and NH-1, three swing seats, move from Lean to Likely Democratic. NH-1 and PA-8 voted for Trump. CA-45 is the kind of affluent suburban district that only voted for Clinton because Trump is unpopular there. It’s a moderate district, and not one that would be inclined to support an Elizabeth Warren-endorsing incumbent like Katie Porter. Republicans had a decent shot in all three of these districts. However, the incumbent Democrats have proven formidable, or at least better at selling people on their campaign than their Republican counterparts. Republican donor groups have decided their money and time is best spent elsewhere. I’ll leave the door slightly open for an upset in all three districts if Trump is able to bounce back nationally, but it’s not looking good. Poor Democratic fundraising is the cause of the only two pro-Republican rating changes I’m making. The Trump-voting districts of NC-9 and OH-12 move from Likely to Safe Republican. Republicans shouldn’t have to worry about these seats, but they should note that what’s happened in these districts are the exceptions, they don’t represent a larger trend of Democratic failure in Republican-held districts.

Polls

4 months away from the general election, we’re beginning to see more polling for House races. There’s almost no good news for Republicans here. Three consecutive polls show a nearly tied race between Democrat Kathleen Williams and Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale in Montana. A Democratic internal poll shows Democrat Cristina Hale leading in IN-5. A poll of Alaska shows independent Alyse Galvin leading Republican Don Young, the scandal-laden dean of the House. These districts all voted for Trump by double digits. There is reason to believe that these polls are probably a little too high on Democrats, and should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, these Democratic candidates are pretty decent campaigners that offer a local perspective, the type that should make their races competitive, so I’m moving AK-AL, IN-5, and MT-AL from Likely to Lean Republican. Another poll came out showing Democrat Josh Hicks leading Republican Andy Barr in KY-6 by two points, a district I had as Safe Republican. This district was very close in 2018, when a favorite of national Democrats, Amy McGrath, tried her hand here. Whereas McGrath was a great fundraiser, but probably a little too liberal for this district, Josh Hicks, who grew up poor in rural Kentucky and knows how people think here, is a political moderate who the average Kentuckian would find more relatable. One poll doesn’t change my bottom line, which is that Republican Andy Barr is a favorite for re-election, but Democrats clearly have a shot. KY-6 moves from Safe to Lean Republican.

A Changing Environment

Joe Biden, is leading Trump by 8.6 points in the national popular vote according to the RCP polling average. Democrats led Republicans in the 2018 national congressional ballot by, wait for it, 8.6 points. This is symbolic of how the national environment this cycle is shaping up to be just like 2018, when the Nancy Pelosi-led Democrats gained 40 seats.

NY-22, the most Trumpian of the 43 districts Democrats flipped in 2018, I initially pegged as an easy flip for Republicans after Brindisi voted to impeach the president. But the Republican nominee, Claudia Tenney, who has a history of unapologetically conservative remarks that today’s swing voter wouldn’t approve of, was the same woman who lost this district in 2018 to Anthony Brindisi, one of the Democrat’s best candidates that cycle. NY-22 moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.

Democrats washed away a lot of swing districts in 2018, but there were some spots they missed. OH-1, a Trump+6 district, and AZ-6, a Trump+10 district, are both likely to trend left in the post-George Floyd, COVID-era. In 2018, Democrats nominated a lackluster candidate in AZ-6, and a scandalous one in OH-1. But they’ll get another chance this year. Democrats have nominated high-fundraising, intelligent, compelling candidates in Dr. Hiral Tipireni (AZ-6) and Kate Schroeder (OH-1). Since 2018, incumbent Republican David Schweikert (AZ-6) has been probed by the Ethics Committee, while Republicans are concerned the 12-term Steve Chabot (OH-1) is past his prime, as he hasn’t faced a good Democratic candidate in a long time. AZ-6 and OH-1 move from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.

I have also decided to move CA-25, a Clinton+7 district where a Republican won by 10 points in a special election in May, back to Toss-Up. That election was the first major general election held during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was an entirely by-mail election, so the voting process and situation was much different than it will be in November, resulting in skewed turnout. Christy Smith, the Democrat, also received some badly timed negative press about a possibly anti-veteran gaffe right before the election. While the COVID-19 pandemic was still raging back in May, most Americans still thought the economic shutdowns, mask wearing, and social distancing would just be temporary, that they would be able to have a normal summer, and send their kids back to school in the fall. Now we know that the COVID-19 pandemic will alter the way we live forever because of the poor federal response to it. George Floyd was also still alive at the beginning of May. A lot has changed, so given the unpredictable nature of this district, CA-25 moves back to Toss-Up from Lean Republican. Mike Garcia was a uniquely good candidate for this district, but there’s little evidence that what happened in this district is widespread in other districts. This weird special election isn’t representative of what will happen in November.

Two districts on opposite sides of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, TX-3, and TX-6, get moved from Safe to Likely Republican. TX-3 is the most heavily college educated district still held by a Republican in the nation. TX-3 voted for Ted Cruz in 2018 by 3 points, but elected incumbent Republican Van Taylor to his first term by 10 points. TX-6 is an exurban district that’s very similar to OK-5, the site of one of the biggest Democratic upset wins on Election Day 2018. It also voted for Cruz by 3 points, and elected incumbent Republican Ron Wright, who has some far-right tendencies, to his first term by 9 points. The Dallas suburbs are trending left quickly in the Trump era, and they’re no longer sure bets for Republicans. Still, these districts are on the outer fringe of Texas suburbia, and Democrats need to pick up their game to make them truly competitive, so Likely Republican is the right rating for now.

An important ratings change comes out of NJ-3, where I now believe Andy Kim is the favorite to win re-election. NJ-3, which lies about halfway between New York City and Philadelphia, is a Trump+6 district that is slowly but surely trending left. Simply put, Kim is just raising more money and campaigning better than Republican David Ritcher, who is running a very Trumpian campaign. Ritcher isn’t a bad candidate necessarily, but given the national environment, I don’t think this race is Toss-Up anymore. NJ-3 moves to Lean Democrat.

Trouble In Rural Areas

The GOP’s problems aren’t restricted to metropolitan areas. There are an increasing number of rural seats they have to worry about.

In the Trump+14 California’s 4th district, a district based around the Sierra-Nevada mountains, incumbent conservative ideologue Tom McClintock is facing an increasingly strong opponent in businesswoman Brynne Kennedy. She’s gaining traction in the district and is preaching a message of unity to contrast with McClintock. Her deep roots in the district will help her relate to voters and their concerns here. Still, CA-4 is a bastion of conservatism in liberal California, people here aren’t inclined to trust Democrats, so Kennedy will need to run a near perfect campaign to win. CA-4 moves from Safe to Likely Republican.

The final ratings change comes out of CO-3 on the Western Slope of the Rockies. Incumbent Republican Scott Tipton, a more mainstream conservative, was upset in the primary by Lauren Boebert, a restaurant owner. Boebert will have far less resources at her disposal than an incumbent like Tipton. Boebert has also expressed a degree of support for the far-right QAnon conspiracy theory. (For those unaware, the QAnon conspiracy theory has become very elaborate and detailed, but, to oversimplify it, it baselessly accuses Democratic politicians and Hollywood actors of being Satanic pedophiles that seek to rule the world). Boebert is definitely a downgrade for Republicans heading into the general election. Her opponent is rural state legislator Diane Mitsch Bush. She has raised several times more money than Boebert. This race has changed a lot since Tipton lost his primary, but this rural Colorado district still leans conservative-libertarian overall, so CO-3 moves from Safe to Lean Republican.

A Net Gain for Democrats?

After the 2018 elections, Dem0crats held 235 seats and the GOP held 199. But throughout the 2019-20 election cycle so far, Republicans have netted 2 House seats, while Democrats have lost 2. They won special elections in NC-9 and CA-25, the latter of which was held by a Democrat prior to her resignation, and former Democrat Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey switched parties. This was partially balanced out by former Republican Justin Amash of Michigan becoming a Libertarian. Democrats hold a 233-201 advantage.

Right now, there are 18 House races that I rate as Toss-Up. If you split the Toss-Ups, Republicans and Democrats each winning nine of them, then the partisan make-up of the House would be 235 Democrats and 200 Republicans, an election night net gain of 2 for Democrats, a net loss of 1 for Republicans. This would erase Democrat’s losses this cycle, but not Republican’s net gains. If Democrats win just one additional seat on top of the 9 Toss-Ups, then Democrats would have one more seat than they did at the end of the 2018 cycle, while the GOP would break even. This would be the third straight cycle Democrats gained House seats. But the worst case scenario for the GOP is if the Democrats win two or more seats on top of the 9 Toss-Ups. Not only would it be the third straight cycle Democrats gain seats, but also the third straight cycle the GOP loses seats. The way thing are going nationally, this scenario is far from out of the question.

Do Things Get Better For The GOP?

I will just come out and say that as of writing this article, I would be very surprised if Trump won re-election. Based on his performance in the first term, looking at the issues more Americans care about, the number of Americans who didn’t vote Clinton in 2016 that would not consider Trump in 2020 significantly outnumber non-Trump 2016 voters that might consider switching over to Trump this time. Something quite major would have to happen for enough Americans to vote to give Trump four more years. Of course, several “major” things have already happened this year, so don’t bet your life’s fortune on Biden’s election.

As the calendar gets closer to November, people talk more about politics, campaign ads show up on TVs and phones, and of course candidates begin campaigning and debating. Right now Biden leads Trump by 8.6 points. I’m not sure Biden, who is far from the savviest campaigner, is capable of sustaining that kind of lead until November. Trump has a loyal base and a lot of money to campaign with. I’d tend to think that Biden’s lead will shrink a little bit before November, but not enough to give Trump a real shot at re-election. Conservative leaning voters who are disheartened by the current news cycle may tell pollsters they’re undecided or voting for Biden, but may come home to Trump in the final weeks once the campaigning gets going and they’re “reminded” of why they chose Trump in 2016. Trump will be ruthless on the debate stage, and I’m not sure Biden will be able to fully respond to that in a way that impresses Americans. Biden’s VP pick will also have a big impact.

Then again, maybe I’m underestimating Biden, or underestimating how much COVID has changed things. If he can give intelligent answers to complicated questions, and offer comprehensive policy ideas, he can make Trump look foolish. Maybe Trump’s gaffes/crazy statements Americans will find more offensive than Biden’s. The economic or COVID situation may cease to improve by November. If this is the case, Biden may win the popular vote by double-digits.

In general, the better Biden does, the more people will be willing to vote for Democrats in downballot races. From here, if things get better for Republicans, they could retain control of the Senate (or have a shot of getting it back in 2022), have a net gain in the House, and retain control of more state’s redistricting in 2022, to ensure that they still have sway in Biden’s America. If things get worse for Republicans, the Senate is lost, they’ll lose even more in the House, and they’ll lose control of redistricting in several crucial states. Republicans may not become relevant again until at least 2024, and nothing will stop most items of the Democratic agenda. That’s a pretty wide range of outcomes.

My current ratings reflect my expectations for if things get just a little better for Republicans between now and November. If this happens, than this election cycle would still be a little less blue than 2018 outside of affluent, diversifying suburbs. Some of the rematches from 2018, like IA-3 or NM-2, which Democrats won, remain in Toss-Up. Republicans beware, because if things continue to go south for Republicans, many, many more pro-Democratic ratings changes are in our future.

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