June House Update: A Few Winning Battles For Team Red, But Secured Victory Near For Team Blue

It’s been about two months since our last House update. Since then, the situaton in 15 congressional districts has changed enough to warrant ratings changes.

District (Incumbent, Party)	Old Rating	New Rating
AZ-2 (Kirkpatrick, D)	Likely D	Safe D
CA-10 (Harder, D)	Likely D	Safe D
CO-6 (Crow, D)	Safe D	Likely D
FL-26 (Powell, D)	Likely D	Lean D
IA-2 (OPEN, D)	Toss-Up	Lean D
IA-4 (OPEN, R)	Lean R	Safe R
IL-6 (Casten, D)	Safe D	Likely D
IL-13 (Davis, R)	Lean R	Toss-Up
MI-11 (Stevens, D)	Lean D	Likely D
NY-24 (Katko, R)	Lean R	Likely R
NY-27 (Jacobs, R)	Likely R	Safe R
NE-2 (Bacon, R)	Lean R	Likely R
OR-4 (DeFazio, D)	Safe D	Likely D
TX-10 (McCaul, R)	Lean R	Likely R
TX-31 (Carter, R)	Likely R	Safe R
VA-5 (OPEN, R)	Safe R	Lean R

The Changes

AZ-2, a left-trending district which borders Mexico and contains Cochise County and parts of Tucson, voted for Hillary Clinton by 4 points. The most well-funded Republican challenger to moderate, well-known incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick suddenly dropped out of the race, leaving Republicans without a quality candidate. Kirkpatrick was likely to survive anyway, and this development just seals the deal. AZ-2 moves to Safe Democratic.

In the Modesto area CA-10, it was discovered that Republican candidate Ted Howze tweeted unsavory, racially-charged comments directed at Maxine Waters, a Parkland shooting survivor, and Muhammad, the Islamic prophet. The California GOP is trying to distance from this type of behavior, because appearing compassionate and within the mainstream is the only way the party can hope to win elections in the state. They promptly pulled the plug on their support of his campaign. This has all but secured the re-election of high-fundraising incumbent Josh Harder in the Clinton+3 district. CA-10 also moves to Safe Democratic.

Many have figured that CO-6 has become too blue for a Republican to win. This is likely still true, but the Republican that’s trying to prove that untrue, Steven House, is taking a unique approach. A worker in the healthcare industry and a former state GOP chair, he’s running a future-oriented campaign based more on stimulating innovation in the healthcare and technology industry than the nation’s more partisan issues. But he’s not afraid to sensibly discuss those issues either. He opposes stripping health coverage for people with pre-existing conditions. He’s a good fit for the suburban district, and his fundraising haul has been pretty decent for a moderate. The 11-point victor in 2018, Jason Crow, became one of the impeachment prosecutors against Donald Trump, damaging his claims of independence from the national party, just after the district’s largest city, Aurora, elected a Republican mayor in 2019. There’s no doubt that this district is quite blue, and that Crow will be a formidable opponent, but House is not the kind of average Republican I’d count out in a race like this, and I can no longer say with absolute certainty that Crow will win re-election. CO-6 moves to Likely Democratic.

After Mike Garcia’s larger than expected special election victory in May in a Hillary Clinton-voting district, some Republicans asked the question: Who’s the next Mike Garcia? A potential answer to this question is Miami-Dade mayor Carlos Gimenez, running against incumbent Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in FL-26, which contains the Florida Keys, the southwestern Miami suburbs, and part of the Everglades. While the district is Clinton+16, it’s large Cuban population is open to supporting certain appealing Republicans down ballot. Gimenez has been in office since 2011, despite being a Republican in big, blue Miami-Dade county. His story of escaping Cuba when he was a child is inspiring to people in the district, and people view him as a rising star. For her part, Mucarsel-Powell, who unseated an entrenched Republican in 2018, also has community ties and an immigration story that struck a chord with people here, so she remains a favorite. FL-26 moves to Lean Democratic.

When incumbent Democrat Dave Loesback announced his intent to not run for re-election in IA-2, a working-class, agricultural, Trump+3 district in southeastern Iowa, people knew this would be a close race. But, Republicans chose Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a state legislator who attempted running for this district three times before, each time resulting in a humiliating loss. The Democratic candidate, another state legislator, Rita Hart, is raking in the dough. She’s a country girl who’s spent her life on the farm, and is prioritizing rural development and scaling back tariffs on her campaign platform. Her unifying message in this district gives her the edge. IA-2 moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic. Of the three Democrat-held districts in Iowa, IA-2 is the one they are most likely to hold, mostly due to the weakness of the Republican candidate.

Meanwhile, GOP fortunes improved in IA-4 in the opposite corner of the state. Incumbent Republican Steve King, who has a reputation of racism, barely won re-election in 2018 by 3 points, a pitiful showing in this rural, 88% white, Trump+27 district. A few more racist comments caused the House GOP to strip him of his committee assignments, and thus a lot of his congressional power. The district was at serious risk of flipping Democratic if King was re-nominated. Fortunately, state Senator Randy Feenstra, a more mainstream conservative, swooped in to save the day for the GOP, winning the nomination over the incumbent. One less district the GOP has to worry about. IA-4 moves to Safe Republican.

A poll of IL-6, which includes Naperville and more of Chicago’s inner-ring suburbs, suggest that incumbent Democrat Sean Casten is in danger. I had last year moved this race to Safe Democratic following the presumptive nomination of state legislator Jeanne Ives, whose right-wing positions across the board were at complete odds with this increasingly liberal, Clinton+7 district. I still think Casten should be fine, but you can’t say a Democrat is a safe bet for re-election when the only poll of the race shows him down by 9 points, especially when the Republican is raising respectable amounts of money. This poll was done on behalf of a Republican leaning group, so this poll is almost certainly wrong. Still, IL-6 moves to Likely Democratic.

From the Lean Republican column, I’d like to introduce IL-13 to the Toss-Up column. This isn’t really due to anything that has happened in the congressional race, incumbent Republican Rodney Davis and Democratic challenger Betsy Dirksen Londrigan are both well-funded, relatively moderate, but by no means perfect candidates. This change has more to do what’s going on at the top of the ticket. I’ve talked before about how Biden has built a definite advantage in the presidential race over the last few months, and that he’s likely to improve on Clinton’s margins. This expansive Central Illinois district, which includes Springfield (the state capital, not the Simpson’s residence), a few colleges, and a lot of prairie, is Trump+6, but Rodney Davis won re-election in the 2018 wave by just 1 point, also against Londrigan. This district is Toss-Up material this cycle.

Republicans in MI-11 have failed to capitalize on incumbent Haley Stevens’ gaffe where she angrily yelled at constituents in a town hall “The NRA has got to go”! Their candidates haven’t raised that much money, and the favorite to win the nomination, Carmelito Greco, isn’t a very compelling candidate. As we’ve seen with Joe Biden’s nomination and Donald Trump’s election, American voters are willing to vote for politicians that say some pretty wacky stuff. MI-11 moves back to Likely Democratic.

Democrats in the Syracuse area NY-24 will once again nominate Dana Balter to face incumbent Republican John Katko. In 2018, a wave year that sunk many New York Republicans, Katko beat back Balter by over five points in this Clinton+4 district. This is as much a testament to Katko’s residual appeal in the district as it is to Balter’s imperfections as a candidate. She isn’t as determined or resourced as successful swing district Democrats, and she supports Medicare-For-All, a position that has become radioactive in swing districts. NY-24 moves to Likely Republican.

After Chris Jacobs’ resounding special election victory Tuesday in NY-27, the reddest district in New York, there’s no reason for this Trump+24 district to be considered competitive in November. NY-27 moves to Safe Republican.

If you’re a Democrat, you know things are looking bad when several prominent figures in your own state party are endorsing your Republican opponent. This is exactly what’s happening to Kara Eastman, the Democratic challenger to locally respected incumbent Republican Don Bacon in the Omaha-based NE-2. Eastman is like the Martha McSally of the Democratic party, many swing voters have just seemed to make up their mind that they don’t like her. I’m not saying it’s impossible for her to win in this Trump+3 district, she came pretty close in 2018, but without the unilateral backing of her own party, it’ll be very hard for her to sell herself and her ideas to the district’s many swing voters. NE-2 moves to Likely Republican.

A sneakily competitive House race this cycle could be OR-4. Incumbent Democrat Peter DeFazio is someone who takes whatever position on the political spectrum necessary to serve his constituents in this unique district based in the southern two thirds of the state west of the Cascadias. That’s why he’s won in landslide after landslide in this district that was basically tied between Trump and Clinton. But Republicans have an ace up their sleeve: challenger Alek Skarlatos. Skarlatos, a veteran, famously overpowered an AK-47 armed terrorist in 2015 on a train from Amsterdam to Paris, saving many lives. He then played himself in the docunentary movie 15:17 to Paris. He’s running a campaign focused on revitalizing the districts large but struggling timber industry, preventing forest fires, and on using free market strategies to help people make ends meet. He has an inspiring story, and could be another Mike Garcia-like candidate. DeFazio, meanwhile, has drifted leftward in recent years, joining the progressive caucus and co-sponsoring the Green New Deal, which Skarlatos contends would destroy the district’s timber industry. DeFazio is an entrenched incumbent, and it would take a valiant effort by Skarlatos to get people to sour on DeFazio, but someone like him could do it. He’s raising a pretty decent amount of money as well. OR-4 moves to Likely Democratic.

A pair of Texas Republicans, Micheal McCaul (TX-10) and John Carter (TX-31), have become more secure as progressive, low-fundraising Democrats have won nominations in their districts. The once conservative Texas suburbs have become less sympathetic towards the Republican party, and are open to voting for Democratic moderates that focus on the kitchen-table issues as opposed to national culture war issues. I seriously doubt they’d be willing to vote for unabashedly liberal, Bernie Sanders and AOC supported, Medicare-For-All supporting Democrats. TX-10 moves to Likely Republican, while TX-31 moves to Safe Republican.

Finally, just as Republicans avoided nominating a bad candidate in IA-4, they have a self-inflicted wound on their hands in VA-5. Virginia is arguably ground zero for America’s culture war. The suburbs of Washington DC, the hub of the western world, are thus much more open to change and modern ways of living. The culture there is day-and-night with a lot of rural and non-affluent Virginia, which maintains a very Southern, traditional way of life where newer concepts and ideas such as the acceptance of homosexuality are still resented and whites are still very much segregated from people of color. The Virginia GOP had a choice. Do they shed their hardline conservatism to appeal to voters in the state’s affluent metros that have moved on from believing biblical conservatism has a place in government? Or do they keep their party-line voters happy by remaining steadfastly conservative on big issues? They chose the second option.

Incumbent Denver Riggleman officiated a friend’s gay wedding, which in of itself caused an uproar among state Republicans, despite Riggleman being a reliable pro-Trump vote in the House. When pastor and Liberty University professor Bob Good announced a primary challenge, state Republicans systematically knocked Riggleman out by scheduling their convention (one voting location for every Republican in VA-5) in Lynchburg, Good’s home turf. Bob Good is a problematic candidate, because he’s essentially a right-wing extremist, believing in tiny government and that biblical principles should be law. (For the record, I’m not saying people that believe in the Bible are extremists, I’m one of them, but I’m saying that seeking to essentially codify the Bible into the law books is extreme.) This district is Trump+11, and it includes the liberal college town of Charlottesville, some DC suburbs, is 20% black, and has a lot of the cultural conservatives I mentioned earlier. Bob Good’s fundraising has been lackluster. Democrats have nominated Dr. Cameron Webb, an African-American physician and healthcare policy advisor to Obama and Trump. He has made expanding healthcare coverage the defining issue of his campaign. He could boost black turnout, and could be the next Lauren Underwood or Antonio Delgado, using his scientific expertise and policy experience to impress people and win the election. Anyway, there’s no doubt that this district is on the playing field, but due to it’s historical conservatism, I’ll give Good the edge. VA-5 moves to Lean Republican.

The Bigger Picture

So these are a bunch of individual ratings changes, more of them in favor of Republicans than in favor of Democrats. But I don’t think that represents the big picture of the battle for the House. As Joe Biden’s lead has been growing these last two months, so to will his coattails, or the improvement of the electoral performance of Democrats in down-ballot races, like the ones for House. My ratings changes in CA-10, IA-2, IL-13, MI-11, and VA-5 were all influenced to some degree by Biden becoming the frontrunner and/or American’s increasing resentment of political extremism. Due to Democratic challenger Eugene DePasquale’s poor primary performance in PA-10, I was going to move PA-10 out of Toss-Up to Lean Republican. I ultimately kept it in Toss-Up for now, because I expect Biden to do well in Pennsylvania, and incumbent Republican Scott Perry is probably too conservative for his district right now. More pro-Democratic ratings changes will come in the future, especially where Democratic challengers gain fundraising traction or Republicans are found struggling. Indeed, if Republicans in certain Likely Democratic districts can’t get their act together by the end of the second quarter, a lot of districts will move to the Safe Democratic column by the end of July.

This compounds an issue for Republicans. 11 out of the 17 Lean Democratic House districts, the ones that will decide control of the House this cycle, were won by Donald Trump, as well as 13 out of the 15 Toss-Up districts. The path back to House control looks easy for Republicans on paper. While there have certainly been individual Republican success stories, a lot of the Republican candidates in swing House districts this cycle are low-fundraising, too conservative, boring, or all three. They simply don’t have the widespread star power that the Democrats had in 2018 as they gained 40 seats and still enjoy today. The Republican hope was that Trump wouldn’t lose much ground compared to 2016, or maybe even gain ground. People would be less apt to voting for Democrats in a “normal” election year as opposed to a “blue wave” year, and after it was revealed to voters that these new Democrats are just as liberal and big-government minded as before, they’d vote straight ticket, handing Republicans the House. But how will that strategy work if Biden is winning a lot of Trump districts, and there’s the possibility of another blue wave this year? How will that work if the Republican congressional candidates are being outraised by Democratic incumbents in most places, reducing their ability to go on the attack against them? It won’t work. If Biden’s numbers don’t worsen by Election Day, Democrats will hold the House. Even if Biden’s lead decreases or disappears, just the right set of competent, locally-minded, kitchen table issue focused Republican candidates would have to gain traction late in the game to deliver the party the House. I’m not saying it’s impossible for Republicans to flip the House, but if they did, it would be an upset tenfold as impressive as Trump’s four years ago. And they cannot, under any circumstances, let Democrats pick off more than a few of the seats they currently hold.

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