Chicago Mayor
Chicago’s mayor likely won’t be decided tomorrow. In the wake of incumbent mayor Rahm Emmanuel not seeking re-election, 14 candidates have declared, and unless one of them gets 50%, there will be a runoff election between the top two vote getters on April 2. With such a crowded field, candidates may only need to get in the teens, percentage of the vote wise, to advance to that election. Polling shows these 5 candidates out in front. Establishment liberal Bill Daley, who, if elected, would continue the Daley political dynasty in Chicago area politics. Lori Lightfoot, an activist who wants to fight corruption and racial police discrimination, two things that have rocked the city as of late. Susan Mendoza, who hits some populist strides. Tori Preckwinkle, a progressive, anti-Emmanuel candidate, who has either led in or tied for first in all the 2019 polls of this race. Finally, Willie Wilson, the most moderate candidate, who’s endorsed by the Cook County Republican party. (He is a Democrat, nonetheless, so his win wouldn’t be a flip) but faces criticism for his rhetoric on black nationalism a few years ago. I think Daley and Preckwinkle will advance to the runoff, they have raised the most money, and represent the two largest wings among Chicago voters. Daley representing the establishment and moderates, with Lightfoot representing minorities and progressives. Who wins the runoff? We’ll cross that bridge when we get there, but I’ll give Lightfoot the edge, based on what voting blocs are larger in the city.
NYC Public Advocate
One of the GOP’s two flip opportunities tomorrow night is the NYC Public Advocate special election. The position is essentially vice-mayor. You wouldn’t expect the monolithically Democratic New York City to be a prime Republican pickup opportunity, but it is. The race features one serious Republican, Queens councilman Eric Ulrich, who’s district is D+10 and very diverse, against 10 serious Democrats. Unlike in Chicago, one doesn’t need 50% to win, so the Democrats could split up their vote, allowing Ulrich to win with the full support of his party and some swing voters. He’s proven his crossover appeal in the city council district he represents. The stars are aligning almost perfectly for a Republican to win in one of the nation’s most liberal cities, and I think he starts the night a slight favorite. Keep in mind that the Public Advocate position doesn’t wield much power, so a GOP win here would be mostly cosmetic, but it would be good news for the party in an area they badly need it: big cities. If not Ulrich, the victor would probably be either NY Times endorsed Jumaane Williams, an economical and criminal justice progressive but social conservative, scandal-ridden Democrat who has been arrested at protests, or Melissa Mark-Viverito, a Bill DeBlasio-backed establishment-friendly liberal.
Connecticut State Legislature
Five special elections will be held in the CT legislature, four heavily Democratic seats that will stay Democratic, and legislative district 99, a D-held R+6 seat which Republicans are slightly favored to flip.