Last night, Jeremy Lacombe (D) won an election by 37 points in a state House district Trump carried by 18 points, a 55 point overperformance. Also, independent(!) Roy Adams won by 7 points against a Republican (no Democrat was in the race) in a district that Trump won by a similar margin in a 26 point underperformance by the Republican. What makes these 6,000-vote elections in a backwoods part of Louisiana no one has ever heard of so special? The socially conservative, fiscally liberal victors had a very similar message to that of incumbent Gov. Jon Bel Edwards (D), who is seeking re-election this year in his Trump+20 state. If these results are indicative of his performance this November, he’s in pretty good shape.
There is reason to believe these results are good predictors. Edwards is an incumbent, and an internal poll by Ralph Abraham’s campaign shows him behind by 2 points, which would be a 22-point underperformance of Trump. The actual margin, at least right now, may be wider for Edwards. This is Abraham’s own poll, after all. At the end of the day, it will come down to how well of a campaign Edwards and Abraham will wage.
Other special election results show better signs for Republicans. In Kentucky, Phil Wheeler (R) flipped a seat in a swing seat* against a worthy Democrat challenger, which is obviously a good sign for incumbent Republican governor Matt Bevin. He’s still in Toss-Up, as there aren’t as many similarities between these two races as there were in Louisiana.
Looking ahead to the gubernatorial landscape in 2020, Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) is looking at running for Senate. We’ll talk more about this in our Senate update next month. While New Hampshire is Thanos-purple, Sununu is a very popular governor, and would be a favorite to win re-election if he ran for governor again. If he goes for the Senate instead, not only does the governor’s race move to Toss-Up, the Senate race moves to Toss-Up too (from Likely D). Talk about Toss-Up Central!
Another 2020 race that could move to Toss-Up is Montana. This state should be a gimme for the GOP, an open seat in a state Trump carried by 20 points. However, congressman Greg Gianforte, famous for body slamming a reporter, is mulling a run. His record is more than problematic, and if he was the Republican nominee, this race would probably be Leans Democrat. If he entered the race, a primary battle between him and the other frontrunner, AG Tim Fox, would ensue, and we’d move the race to Toss-Up.
No real ratings changes this time around, but for reasons explained above, we’ll now say that Roy Cooper (D-NC) is more vulnerable than John Bel Edwards (D-LA). They both remain in Lean Democrat.
*Well, not a swing seat in the traditional sense. It voted for Trump 80-18. But many of the area’s local officeholders are Democrats. On the state legislative level, it’s a swing seat.