After the resignation of Representative Tom Marino (R, PA-12) to take a job in the private sector, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf just announced by twitter that the special election to decide his successor will be held May 21.

The governor’s tweet about the special election.

This district encompasses a large chunk of Northeastern and North-Central Pennsylvania, including State College. Here’s a map.

As an election junkie who gets pretty excited about stuff like this, I admit that there probably won’t be that much action in this one. Trump won this district by 36 points. Since PA doesn’t hold primaries for special elections, any action will probably happen in the Republican party convention where the nominee will be chosen. Many Republicans are expected to run for this open, deep-red seat. In the general election, it will not be a question of if the GOP holds on, but by what margin. I think the over-under on margins for the GOP in the general election is 25 points, and I’d take the over, based on recent results in similarly red areas.

One Response

Comments are closed.