Despite some negative revelations about Biden before he announced, things have gone almost exactly right for him since he announced late last month. He has gotten a lot of press, allowing him to talk about what he stands for and right some of his past wrongs, such as supporting bus segregation in the 70’s and his handling of the Anita Hill testimony in the 90’s. He has gotten a clear post-announcement boost in polling. Biden was only polling 6 points above Sanders, who was in 2nd place, at 29% before his announcement. Now, he’s polling at 41%, 27 points above Sanders. This could be due to his higher than expected support among minorities and/or Trump berating him since his announcement. If Trump singles a Democrat out, it shows he is particularly fearful of him/her to Democrat primary voters, who are increasingly saying electability is their #1 concern in the primary. Biden reclaims his #1 spot on the Best Shot Tracker.
Perhaps Biden’s jump came at the expense of other Democrats. Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke, who haven’t particularly had the greatest starts, failed to take advantage of Biden’s late announcement and his Lucy Flores #MeToo mini-scandal before he came in. They each fall by 2 on the Best Shot Tracker. Pete Buttigieg seems to be eclipsing Beto as the dark horse, insurgent candidate. He overtakes him on this list. Beto has only been polling 3% in some polls.
Cory Booker, once thought to be a contender, has been polling horrendously. Elizabeth Warren has been polling a shade better than expected, and has been described as the winner of the “ideas primary”, meaning she is usually the source of the next big progressive idea, and other candidates leech off her. The two trade places on the Tracker.
Finally, I added all the candidates who qualified for next month’s debate to the Best Shot Tracker, even the minor, no-shot ones, as well as Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, who announced this month. Honestly, no one really cares about these candidates enough for me to explain why I put them where on the list. However, ex-Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper gets moved down by 1 because his home state vote is split between him and Bennet.
At this point, Biden looks like the clear frontrunner, with Sanders a clear 2nd place. If the nomination can be taken away from one of them, it will probably fall to either Pete Buttigieg or Kamala Harris, with a small chance of Beto O’Rourke or Elizabeth Warren having a moment at the right time to get nomination. This, of course, could all change during the debates. The first debate is scheduled for June 26-27. They actually have two debates because of the sheer number of candidates running. Barring something major happening, my next update will be shortly after the debates.
Great reporting, as usual. Your blog is my one-stop shop for all things politics.
I have mixed feelings about him being the front runner. On one hand, I am thrilled that he has taken the position from Sanders. On the other, don’t want him to even run.