Of the little political action that has taken place recently, a lot of it has applied to down ballot races. One example is Mike Garcia, a Republican, winning by 10 points in a congressional district that Hillary Clinton carried by 7 points and was thought to be getting bluer. This is a big win for the GOP, as it shows that it’s possible for Republicans with inspiring backgrounds to win in blue districts if they can cast their Democratic challenger in a bad light. Useful information for Republicans going forward.
A lot of the Senate race ratings changes I’ve made have been in favor of Democrats. However, Republicans have caught a few breaks since my last Senate update.
I am making 5 Senate race ratings changes, 3 in favor of Republicans, and 2 in favor of Democrats. I am also changing two Governor race ratings, 1 in favor of each party.
| State (Incumbent, Party) | Old Rating | New Rating |
| Georgia (Loeffler, R) | Toss-Up | Lean Republican |
| Iowa (Ernst, R) | Lean Republican | Likely Republican |
| Maine (Collins, R) | Lean Republican | Toss-Up |
| Minnesota (Smith, D) | Safe Democrat | Likely Democrat |
| Montana (Daines, R) | Likely Republican | Lean Republican |
| State (Incumbent, Party) | Old Rating | New Rating |
| New Hampshire (Sununu, R) | Lean Republican | Likely Republican |
| North Carolina (Cooper, D) | Lean Democrat | Likely Democrat |
COVID-19 and Stocks
Several incumbent Senators were caught red handed in an apparent abuse of power when they sold various amounts of money in stocks after private hearings about COVID-19 back in February. These Senators knew the stock market would crash before most of the public did, and used it to their unfair advantage. This could be considered insider trading. Richard Burr (R-NC), who’s not up for re-election this year, was one of those Senators, and he had to step down as Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman.
We’ve known for a while about one Senator up for election this year that did this, Kelly Loeffler (R-GA). The scandal broke in late March, and many thought Democrats would jump on this scandal and turn it into an opportunity to flip a Senate seat. However, the preferred candidate of national Democrats, Raphael Warnock, is off to his own bumpy start. He’s caught up in a domestic dispute with his now-estranged wife, who claims Raphael ran over her foot with a car during a heated argument shorty before declaring candidacy. He hasn’t enjoyed a surge in fundraising I predicted he’d have after the Loeffler scandal broke. He’s barely polling better in the jungle primary than his main Democratic rival, Matt Lieberman. Matt Lieberman, son of former Connecticut Senator Joe, who was also Al Gore’s running mate, is nonetheless considered by many to be a poor, unfocused candidate (He’s raised even less money than Warnock). Lieberman could beat Loeffler if he gets his act together, but local political experts agree that this race is looking like a missed opportunity for Democrats. Georgia’s special election moves from Toss-Up to Lean Republican. As CA-25 shows, Democrats can’t expect to put up half-decent congressional candidates in special elections and expect to win.
Another Senator we recently discovered that engaged in this stock selling is Tina Smith, a Democrat from Minnesota, who is also up for re-election this November. This mini-scandal damages her populist reputation, and she’s had a little bit of trouble fundraising recently. The Republican candidate is Jason Lewis, a former congressman and former right-wing radio talk show host. Smith, for his part, isn’t pulling any punches, suing Governor Tim Walz over extending his state’s stay-at-home order. His right-wing antics will probably draw donations from a certain sector of the GOP, while alienating a lot of the state’s swing voters. Nonetheless, people surrounding Tina Smith acknowledge this race won’t be a shoe-in for her. Minnesota’s Senate race moves from Safe to Likely Democrat.
Other Senate Ratings Changes
In Iowa, it was looking like Democrat Theresa Greenfield was on a roll, outraising incumbent Republican Joni Ernst. Her fundraising has since slowed down. The Des Moines Register, the state’s most influential newspaper, endorsed another Democrat, Mike Franken, over her, because many don’t see her as politically savvy enough. Joni Ernst, on the other hand, has proven to be a very competent and charismatic Senator. Democrats had hoped that Trump’s tariffs on China would sink Republicans in Iowa. However, China’s favorability rating among Americans is sinking fast after China’s poor handling of COVID-19, so those tariffs Trump introduced on China are about to become more popular.
Speaking of popularity, someone who is not becoming more popular is Senator Susan Collins (R-ME). I initially pegged her as a likely bet for re-election because she routinely wins by high margins due to her once fiercely independent voting record. But she’s moved to the right a good deal in the Trump era. Throughout the last few months, poll after poll is showing that Mainers are souring on Collins. Her disapproval ratings tower over her approval ratings, and her main Democratic opponent, Sara Gideon, is raising dizzying amounts of money. Collins’ downfall started when she voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. She made a speech to the Senate not only saying the sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh didn’t have enough substance, but also that he wouldn’t overturn Roe vs. Wade. For many people in blue-leaning Maine, this is the moment Susan Collins became a closet partisan, who, when it comes down to it, will always make excuses to vote the party line.
Maine’s relationship with Susan Collins remains a complicated one. People here still remember Collins’ glory days, when she was an indepedent voice in an independently-minded state. Do enough Mainers still like her more than Trump, despite her ideological transition rightward? Will Mainers vote for her because she’s willing to call out Trump? Or are they frustrated she doesn’t actually vote opposite of Trump on most important votes? These are the things we don’t know right now, and they are what make this race a Toss-Up. There’s a good chance Maine is the tipping point race in the Senate.
There are two Senate races in particular that some might wonder why I haven’t put them in more competitive categories yet. In Michigan, Republican John James outraised incumbent Democrat Gary Peters for the third straight quarter. He’s catching on. Public opinion polling shows Gary Peters’ support in Michigan is pretty lukewarm. Why isn’t this race a Toss-Up? Michigan is rated as “Lean Biden” on the presidential level. John James is campaigning as an acolyte of Trump who will support his agenda. Gary Peters, for his part, is very similar to Joe Biden, an old, white, unassuming, center-left Democrat. John James will live or die by Trump, and because Michigan Leans Biden, it doesn’t make sense to move the state’s Senate race into Toss-Up. But this race will be one to watch if Trump’s fortunes improve in the Wolverine State. In the regular, non-special election in Georgia, a Republican internal poll shows incumbent David Perdue with only a two point lead over Jon Ossoff, (43% to 41%) who has pulled ahead of other Democrats in fundraising. Jon Ossoff is well-known in Georgia for nearly flipping a congressional district in a 2017 special election. The key word in that sentence: “nearly”. The reality is that Jon Ossoff is very robotic and monotone on the campaign trail. He’s hardly a moderate, and he couldn’t inspire Trump-skeptic suburban Republicans to vote for him, despite spending the most money a Democrat has ever spent on a House race. Now, he has less money that Republican David Perdue. I’d be very surprised if Georgia’s large black community will find Ossoff inspiring. Just like in 2014, Perdue will win most of the vote among people who are undecided at this point, and he’ll win again. Georgia’s regular Senate election remains Likely Republican. As with Michigan, don’t take your eye off this race. Maybe Jon Ossoff will come out of quarantine a better candidate, or maybe Biden will do well enough in Georgia so that Ossoff’s dryness won’t matter.
Governors and COVID-19
It’s clear Americans approve more of how their governors are handling coronavirus than they approve of Trump’s response. Trump’s approval rating in polls has fallen back to mid-2019 levels, due to anger over Trump gutting the United States’ pandemic response procedure, not listening to the early warning signs, and not taking action swiftly enough early on to curtail the virus’ deadly spread. I do believe that Trump, who was riding a surge in his approval ratings after his acquittal, will come out of this pandemic having a lower chance of re-election than before it.
As the federal government appears to have failed to act on the early warning signs, the states were left to fend for themselves. Polling shows up to 49 governors are getting higher marks for their coronavirus response than Trump’s. Most governors are doing an pretty OK job, but some are doing better than others. One who’s doing great is Steve Bullock (D-MT), whom you may remember was in the presidential race briefly. In Montana, he’s taken charge protecting all 147,164 square miles of his state from coronavirus. He’s done an impeccable job, as Montana has recorded a mere 16 virus deaths, less than a lot of counties. As in most states, people in Montana are looking up to their governor, and he has mostly positive news to share.
It also just so happens he’s running for Senate. All the positive media he’s getting in Montana will undoubtedly give him a boost in that race. Montana is a ruby red state, and incumbent Steve Daines will not be easy to sink, but this race inches closer to Toss-Up. The Montana Senate Race moves from Likely to Lean Republican. If Democrats come up short in Maine or North Carolina, Montana is looking like a pretty sexy back-up option to flip that fourth seat to give Democrats control of the chamber.
Two swing state governors will reap electoral benefits for handling the virus well, Republican Chris Sununu of New Hampshire and Democrat Roy Cooper of North Carolina. A poll out of New Hampshire shows a whopping 89% of residents in the state approve of Sununu’s response to the virus. Several polls out of North Carolina show Democrat Roy Cooper with double digit leads over his Republican challenger, conservative Lieutenant Governor Dan Forrest. While we have to be careful with reading too much into polls this early on, in this case, the polls are so heavy-handed with good news for these two governors that you can’t ignore it. Polls these days are never wrong by 18 points (The RCP polling average shows Roy Cooper with an 18-point lead). We’re living in a time when people are looking up to their Governors more than ever, so the good polling numbers make sense. Besides, both Governors fit their states pretty well anyway. The New Hampshire Governor Race moves from Lean to Likely Republican, and the North Carolina Governor Race moves from Lean to Likely Democrat. Still, both of these states are Toss-Up at the presidential level, and there’s still time for the underdog candidates in both states to consolidate a base of support among people that vote for their party, making these races closer.
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