This Saturday, the last major election of the year will take place, but it’s certainly not least. Over $10 million has been spent and nasty labels thrown around in the Louisiana Governor race, one which almost anyone in elections will tell you is a Toss-Up.
As the results from the first round of voting came in, things looked all dark for incumbent Democrat John Bel Edwards. He only got 46.6% of the vote, considerably short of the 50% he needed to win the election right then and there. His opponent: Eddie Rispone (R), one of the state’s wealthiest people. Most of the remaining vote was split between Rispone and Ralph Abraham, another Republican. Despite Edwards doing everything he could to be moderate and improve the state financially, Louisiana looked too red to elect even him.
Since then, some bright spots in the dark sky have popped up for Edwards, to a point where it might only be a “partly cloudy” day. In the nearby states of Kentucky and Mississippi, Democrat governor candidates performed well among white voters, who in those states and Louisiana, are usually an extremely conservative demographic. This is after Donald Trump visited those states to campaign for their Republican opponents, showing that even The Donald has limitations in red states.
One problem Democrats have been having recently is low black turnout. It cost them the governorship in Mississippi and a North Carolina House seat. In Louisiana’s early vote, the electorate was 31% black. This is a change from the first round, when it was only 27%. He needs the electorate to be about 31% black or more to win if he doesn’t pickup any Republican votes. Speaking of Republican votes, here’s another guideline: Edwards needs to get more than 8% of the vote among people who voted for Ralph Abraham, or who would’ve voted for him this time around, if there isn’t a substantial increase in black turnout. After Rispone and Abraham had a bitter primary battle, this might not be an impossible task due to Edward’s social conservatism. Abraham contends Rispone made some inappropriate attacks on his character and told lies about him in an attack ad. He hasn’t exactly shied away from this behavior in this election, as Edwards launched a counter-attack ad where he says Eddie Rispone attacked Edwards for “being a disgrace to West Point.” While definitely a majority of Abraham’s backers will vote Rispone, Edwards only needs 8% of them, and I think he’ll get that, if not more.
I think John Bel Edwards will win because he will get the support level of the groups that he needs to, and Democrat success elsewhere in the South this year.
Here’s a bellwether parish map based on the October results:
Blue-Parishes John Bel Edwards should win
Yellow-Bellwhether parishes that could vote the same way as the state
To create this map, I took John Bel Edward’s vote % in every parish, added 1.5% to it, or about the vote percentage of the left leaning minor primary candidates, then finally added Ralph Abraham’s % multiplied by 0.08, representing the 8% of the Ralph Abraham vote Edwards needs. If this put Edwards under 47% in a given parish, I shaded it red. If this put Edwards over 53%, I shaded it blue. Every parish in between I shaded yellow, the color of a bellwether parish.
If Edwards or Rispone win by 5% or more, some parishes that “should” vote one way may begin to go the other. If this starts happening, it means the person winning those parishes will win outright.
Here’s a good metric to get a feel for African-American turnout. East Baton Rouge and Orleans Parishes are in the top 3 parishes by population statewide, and are majority-minority, and over 45% black. If Edwards can get 93% or more in Orleans Parish, and 69% or more in East Baton Rouge Parish, he’ll be in a nice spot to win, because that’s evidence of high black turnout.
P.S. Watch Louisiana State Senate District 16’s election. If Republicans win, they’ll get a supermajority in the state legislature, weakening Edwards’ veto power if he’s re-elected.
Be sure to follow @Toss_Up_Central on Twitter for commentary as the results roll in.
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