A group of federal judges have declared the Ohio congressional map unconstitutional. So just like Michigan, I’ve drawn a custom congressional map for the state.
Unlike Michigan, where it is unclear what party would benefit from a redistrict, it’s clear the Democrats would gain in Ohio. The current map is a 12-4 Republican gerrymander. In my 2020 House ratings, only 1 GOP-held seat is in play in Ohio. This is despite Ohio’s status as a swing state. Under these new, fairer maps, 5 districts are lean or safe Democrat, 7 are lean or safe Republican, with 4 Toss-Ups. These are based on 2016 presidential results, when Trump won Ohio by 8 points. If the state gets close again, these numbers may prove to generous for Republicans. All the districts are majority white. It’s kind of hard to draw a majority-minority district in a state that not only is 80% white, but also doesn’t have any huge minority communities.
Just a quick rundown of the districts. District 1 contains Toledo and some Obama-Trump counties along Lake Erie. It voted solidly for Obama twice, but Clinton only narrowly won it. This is the first of many incumbent vs. incumbent races that would happen under this new map. These happen when two incumbents are drawn, accidentally or otherwise, into the same district. A competitive race would ensue between Republican Bob Latta and Democrat Marcy Kaptur. I think Kaptur would survive, given she already represents a lot of this distrct. District 2 is a “corn belt” district. A primary would occur between two very conservative lawmakers, House Freedom Chair Jim Jordan and Freedom Caucus member Warren Davidson. The winner would also win the general. District 3, represented by Republican Mike Turner, is centered around Dayton, and Leans Republican. District 4 is an open seat in the solid Republican Cincinnati suburbs. District 5 in Cincinnati, despite leaning Democrat, has 2 Republican incumbents, Steve Chabot and Brad Wenstrup. One may or may not drop out. District 6 and 7 are rural, reliably red districts in the Ohio River valley, with 7 being more Appalachian. 6 is an open seat, while 7 has 2 GOP incumbents, Troy Balderson and Bill Johnson. District 8, Tim Ryan-D, a formerly deep blue district based in the rust belt suburbs of Cleveland was very close in the 2016 presidential race, bit Ryan has proved to be a very strong incumbent. District 9, based in some more affluent Cleveland suburbs, is solid Democrat. Marcia Fudge would beat out David Joyce. District 10 contains Cleveland and is the state’s most Democratic district. Ironically, the way the maps are right now, this district ends up being represented by Republican Anthony Gonzalez. He will be easy pickings for Democrats, barring a catastrophic failure. District 11 is an open Lean Democrat district containing Akron and surrounding areas. District 12, Bob Gibbs-R in Cleveland’s western suburbs, is Toss-Up and trending blue. Districts 13 and 14 are both solid Republican seats open for taking. District 15 is an open, blue-trending but still Toss-Up district in the Columbus suburbs. Finally, district 16 is a reliably Democrat district in Columbus. Joyce Beatty will beat Steve Stivers, who was also chair of the NRCC, a party-run organization to help it’s fellow members get (re-)elected to Congress, during the last election cycle.
So, it is likely that 4 Republican incumbents will be replaced by Democrats, and 2 will go down in primaries. This is partially compensated for by 4 solid Republican open seats. Let’s just say that if a map like this is put into place, it’s bad news for the Republican establishment in Ohio. Emphasis on “if”, the court order leading to the redistricting the state has appealed to SCOTUS. The highest court in the land typically doesn’t intervene in redistricting, especially now that it has a conservative majority. The old maps may continue to stay in place. But please SCOTUS, look at this map:
If you want to look at my map in more detail, click this link: http://dra.indirect.cc/join/9afd7c42-41c4-4316-846b-471fd1d9a92d