At 10:00 AM local time (1:00 PM Eastern Standard Time), the third presidential nomination contest, the Nevada Caucuses, will officially start. But unfortunately, there’s no telling when the results will actually start to come in. The caucuses take time, partly because, like in Iowa, if a candidate doesn’t receive 15% of the vote at a caucus site on the first ballot, they will be deemed “unviable”, and that candidate’s supporters will have to pick a viable candidate to support. These two vote tallies, along with county delegates, make up the three separate results to be released by the Nevada Democratic party. Also, Nevada Democrats have introduced some innovations to the caucus like a system for early voting, and an app used to report results. However, concerns have arised that Nevada may experience an Iowa-style delay in results, because the early voting system is so complicated it could have its own article, and a similar app used in the Iowa Caucuses was the root of its downfall.
I think Bernie Sanders is the favorite to get the most delegates from Nevada, but not prohibitively. Polling shows him leading by 14 points over Biden in 2nd place (more on that in a bit). The state has a large Latino population, lower than average levels of college education attainment, and, despite the luxurious façade of the Las Vegas strip, has several economically-impoverished urban areas. Bernie has so far done well among these voters.
The conventional wisdom is that Sanders has Nevada locked up, but I think an upset remains possible for three reasons. The first reason is his mediocre debate performance. He didn’t do much to distract from reminders about the Culinary Union, known to make or break the state’s elections, sharply criticizing his healthcare plan. This was followed by Bernie’s own online supporters making nasty threats against people in the Union. The second reason is that Nevada is a constant challenge to pollsters. Some of its residents speak only Spanish, and can’t respond to polls. These are the kinds of voters that know firsthand the damage socialism has caused in South American countries like Venezuela. Nevada is an anti-Medicare For All state, and Sanders got exposed on Wednesday’s debate. The Nevada Caucus is a low turnout affair, so not everyone polled will bother to show up. In 2016, polls overestimated Sander’s performance by a margin of 3 points. I’d be very surprised if he gets more than 20 delegates. The final reason is that it’s likely at least two of the moderate lane candidates will get below 15% statewide, rendering them unviable in many caucus sites. Their supporters would likely all go to one or two viable moderate candidates, boosting them and allowing them to close the gap on Sanders. If you do the math, there are 6 candidates polling 10% or more in Nevada. So if even two of them fall below 15% in a given caucus site, a whole 20% of voters will have to select a new candidate, more than enough to swing the result.
So who else will get delegates? Many in the state thought Tom Steyer had a shot at getting his first delegates from Nevada, guaranteeing him a spot on debate stages going forward. But he wasn’t on the debate stage in Nevada, and he’s been drowned out by all the noise. Recent polling has not been kind to him. A hot take is that Joe Biden also won’t get 15% statewide. It’s clear he’s not trying as hard as one in his situation should. He’s being dwarfed in ad buys, campaign stops, money spent, and more. It’s clear his focus is South Carolina, which is weird since his campaign said he needs to get 2nd place in Nevada to take back his status as a legitimate contender. Many high profile endorsements he should’ve gotten, like The Culinary Union and Harry Reid, have stayed neutral. His slump continues, and he may be out of the race before Super Tuesday. (Michael Bloomberg laughs maniacally in the distance)
There aren’t any signs that the “Klobucharge” that propelled Amy Klobuchar to 3rd place in New Hampshire is replicating in Nevada. She was barely a presence at Nevada’s debate, and she hasn’t drawn the crowd sizes, fundraising, or enthusiasm she got directly before and after New Hampshire. I don’t think she’ll be viable. Nevada will likely be the end for Tulsi Gabbard. There’s little to suggest she’ll break low-single digits or won’t come in a distant 7th place.
I think the two people that had the best debates on Wednesday, Pete Buttigieg, and Elizabeth Warren, will receive the jolt they need to clear 15%. Pete took a page from Klobuchar’s playbook and didn’t mince words when attacking Sanders over his anti-capitalist views. That will win him support among moderate and older caucus voters. But Elizabeth Warren had by far the best overall performance, a google search of her name will reveal many articles about how this was her best debate so far. I think she will have a Klobuchar-style last minute surge in Nevada, while pulling even more support from Sanders, keeping her viable in many caucuses. I think these two will receive a high-single digit number of delegates, which means that Bernie Sanders will probably pass Pete Buttigieg in delegates.
Whether the results come in Saturday or Sunday, these things remain the same. In Nevada, it’s less about what to watch on election night and more about what not to watch. Nevada has 17 counties, but most of Nevada is barely inhabitable desert. Unless the election is very close, the only two counties that matter are Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno). But Clark is by far the largest, with about 75% of the state’s population living in it. Clark County will dominate this election, and unless it’s close, it will likely decide the election. Some other counties that could come into play are Carson City and Lyon, which include the state capitol and some of its suburbs respectively, and Elko, which has a Native American reservation. These five counties are the only counties in the state that have over 50,000 people, let alone voters. If an underdog candidate upsets in any county outside of these five, it’s probably not worth paying attention to. They may not have even won 1,000 votes in that county.
Overall, I’d expect Bernie Sanders to win Clark County convincingly. The county has a good share of Latino voters and some low-income urban areas. If Sanders is losing the county or winning by less than 3 percent, he becomes vulnerable. Buttigieg and Klobuchar have been pulling hard in northern Nevada. If one of them (or really anyone except Sanders) can win a (major) Nevada county, they could get a decent delegate haul from Nevada, which will do wonders for the ability of that person’s campaign to stay viable. If a non-Sanders candidate can then win Washoe county by 6% or more, as well as win Carson City, Elko and a few other counties, that candidate may be on their way to an upset victory.
Thank you for reading my article. If you want more Toss-Up Central, visit my home page: https://tossupcentral.com/. New articles will be posted every other Sunday at 6PM.