The first presidential primary this year will take place in New Hampshire tomorrow. If you live there and are a registered Democrat or Independent, be sure to get in line to vote before 8 P.M. when polls close. We should begin to get results shortly after poll closings. The New Hampshire primary is conducted individually by the state’s 234 towns and cities, as opposed to a caucus, where votes are counted at the state level. This means a systemwide delay in results won’t happen like it did in Iowa.
I am predicting Bernie Sanders will get the most delegates, due to a very solid lead across many polls. However, the door is cracked open for a Pete Buttigieg upset, as he’s just within the margin of error in a lot of polls.
Regardless, the only two candidates that will certainly get delegates tomorrow night are Sanders and Buttigieg. Beyond that, it’s a three-way fight between Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar, who are all poling at 11-12%, to try to beat the others out and get to 15%, the threshold for delegates. I think Amy Klobuchar will be the only candidate out of this group to get delegates. After a strong debate performance, she’s getting hot at the right time with record crowd sizes, fundraising, and polling surges. Some of the undecideds will go her way, putting her above 15%. She needs a 3rd-place finish to keep her campaign alive, and I think she’ll get it. I think there’s a good chance Warren’s campaign will end this week, if she indeed gets no delegates. If Joe Biden gets no delegates, he’ll have to expend a lot of resources to rebuild his campaign in Nevada, and follow it up with a win in South Carolina to put himself back in the game.
New Hampshire has 10 counties, that can be split into 3 distinct regions:
The Connecticut River valley counties of Cheshire, Sullivan, Grafton, and Coos. These areas are more progressive, rural, and working-class, and border Vermont. Bernie Sanders should sweep these counties.
The Boston suburbs in Rockingham and Hillsborough County. These are more affluent suburbs that border Massachusetts, and include over half of the state’s population. Given its natural boundary, Elizabeth Warren will probably put up her strongest numbers here. Pete Buttigieg did his best in the Des Moines suburbs in Iowa, so maybe he can repeat that here. If he wins both of these counties, he has a good chance of winning the state.
The interior counties of Carroll, Belknap, Stafford, and Merrimack. Lovely small towns litter the beautiful mountain landscape, if you close your eyes and imagine New Hampshire, you’ll probably think of something similar to what this part of the state is. I’d expect this area to be “in the middle” of the other two regions politically. It has the sparse population of the Connecticut River with the affluency of the suburbs. If Pete Buttigieg wins 2 out of these 4 counties, the race will be close. Whoever can get close to or above 15% in these counties stands a good chance of hitting that mark statewide.
Here are these regions in map form:
Let’s settle in for the first presidential election day (with results) tomorrow.
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