A panel of federal judges have just declared Michigan’s gerrymandered congressional district maps unconstitutional and rigged to “historical proportions”. The court targeted districts 1, 4, 5, and 7-12 as particularly illegal. This is the first of up to four states that may have to redraw some or all of their congressional districts before 2020, the others being North Carolina, Maryland, and Ohio. The court also ordered several state legislature seats to be redrawn.
When the new congressional districts came into effect in 2012, the GOP has enjoyed a 9-5 lead in the state’s congressional delegation. This ended in 2018, when two Republican-leaning districts in suburban Detroit flipped blue as a result of strong Democrat candidates an a dislike of Trump. The state is now evenly split 7-7. One could argue the districts aren’t really gerrymandered because of this, but, if they really were fair and square, Democrats probably would have even more congresspeople from the state. I largely agree with the court’s decision.
Something I’ve wanted to try for a while but haven’t gotten the chance to until now is share a congressional district map I made with Dave’s Redistricting App. This is my first public attempt, so it probably won’t be perfect, but here it is:
And here is the current map:
Here’s the link if you want to take a closer look: http://dra.indirect.cc/join/c2d1c017-6dcf-4285-bb4a-852b651aef43
You may notice some of the districts are almost exactly the same. I decided not to touch the districts the court ruled as fair. I think in that case it’s better to not split up the communities that make up the districts. Besides, we’re getting new districts in 3 years anyway. I also didn’t really change district 1 in the U.P. and parts of the northern L.P. and 4 in rural, central Michigan. Sure, I swapped around a few counties here and there, as I wanted district 1 to be more “coastal” while 4 would be more inland. District 10, or the “thumb” of the L.P. was also largely unaltered. It’s districts 5 , 7-9, 11 and 12 where I made some big changes.
District 5 as it is was drawn was a Democratic vote sink, or a district drawn to be heavily Democratic to keep enough Democrats out of other districts. I redrew it to be much more competitive. It includes both Saginaw and Flint, two midsize cities with large minority populations. It also includes nearby Shiawassee county which, along with the rest of Genesee county outside Flint, is a red county, and some swingy areas in the Detroit exurbs. There are two incumbents in this district, Democrats Dan Kildee and Elissa Slotkin. But chances are Slotkin would carpetbag on over to the nearby 8th district, where she got a lot of her votes last time. Kildee would probably win both the primary and the general, given he has won by high margins and his father served in the district for a long time, strengthening the Kildee brand. The 8th district I was talking about is also quite competitive, it includes the liberal state capitol Lansing and some of the lean-red areas around it. Slotkin would probably win re-election if she ran here, given she won her first election in a redder district. If she didn’t run here, this race would be close, but given the trends of the area, I think Democrats would still hold it. Both of these district were within 1 point in the 2016 presidential race.
Backtracking a little, we arrive at our final ultra-competitive district, the 7th. This is one of the few parts of the country where a suburban area voted for Trump more than it did Romney. (Trump+6) Suburbs usually trend towards Democrat these days, making this district very unpredictable. Additionally, no House incumbent lives within this district, so it would be wide open.
My 9th district is a more compact version of the old 7th district, that also includes some of blue Wayne county. It’s less Republican leaning (Trump+12), but not quite Toss-Up.
The Detroit area got kind of messy, and some of the district numbers aren’t in the right place. The 11th district is the gray one to the left of the 7th district. The reason this area is so messy is because the court decided not to label districts 13 and 14 as unconstitutional, despite the fact they kind of snake all over the place. I still wanted to draw some suburban districts, but since the 13th and 14th are messy, it made all the other ones around it messy too. Nevertheless, the 11th district is a lean-blue district (Clinton+11) that is only trending bluer. An intense primary battle between two freshmen, Democrats Haley Stevens and Andy Levin, the latter of whom could be considered old-guard as his family has been political for a long time, would ensue here. Finally, the 12th district is more of a “leftovers” district, taking in some of the inner Detroit suburbs the other districts missed, like Ann Arbor, Livonia, and Dearborn. It is a heavily blue district.
In conclusion, if the Democrats play their cards right and don’t take anything for granted, they could win up to 8 or maybe even 9 seats by picking up districts 7 and/or 6. If they screw up royally, Republicans could re-gain their 9-5 advantage by picking up districts 5 and 8. Seems pretty fair to me. I will note that in 2008, Obama carried all but 2 of these districts, so this may become a Democrat gerrymander if they can return to Obama level strength with the white working class.