7:30 PM EST Tuesday, results will begin coming in for two special elections to the House of Representatives from North Carolina. Two vacancies will be filled.
We will start with NC-3, the least competitive of the two. I am moving this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. This district voted for Trump by 23 points, so it was initially thought to be uncompetitive. This didn’t stop Democrats from trying their best. Mother nature may have given them an assist: Hurricane Dorian has reduced early voting days and has impacted more the Republican leaning counties in and around the Outer Banks. Some Republican insiders aren’t feeling too great about this race either. One said “It won’t be a shoe-in”, another even saying they only expect Republican Greg Murphy to win by 5-8 points, and she wasn’t even sure about that, given the logistics of the election leading to lower turnout. The only poll of this race showed Murphy with an unimpressive lead of 11 points, 51-40, over Democrat Allen Thomas, which becomes even less favorable for him when you account for demographics and the polls’ possible error polling African-Americans. While a Democrat win here is unlikely, scenarios exist where Thomas Allen pulls it off, so we move the race to Likely Republican.
While watching this race on Election night, look at this map. This map shows what a less than 1 point victory for Thomas Allen would look like by county. We’ll call his hypothetical result in each county his “benchmark”.
For the exact benchmarks by county, visit: https://twitter.com/bad_senator/status/1168889989096235008
As you can see, Thomas needs to win the landlocked counties, the Albermale-Pamlico Peninsula, and a few counties to the north. I think Craven and Pitt counties especially will be bellwethers in this race, given their high population. Bellwether counties are most likely to vote for the winner of the election. In a scenario where Thomas Allen wins, he wins these counties with 51% and 52% of the vote respectively. Look for lower turnout along the coast, as it would be a bad sign for Greg Murphy.
The main event of the night will be NC-9. This race has turned out to be closer than I could have imagined. I’ve done extensive research on this race, and it boils down to 2 things: Can Republicans overcome their deficit in the early vote, and can Democrat Dan McCready convince enough independent and Trump-skeptic voters, many of whom voted for him in the regular election in 2018, to cast their vote for him. This race is the very definition of Toss-Up, but here at Toss-Up Central, I don’t like to leave my viewers hanging and not pick a favorite in the close races. So I have to pick somebody, and that somebody is Republican Dan Bishop. The main reason I picked him was because Trump and Pence are holding two separate rallies in the district on election eve. I think this is a smart move because when something big happens on election eve, your opponent doesn’t really have time to respond. National TV will show Trump blasting McCready for associating himself with Nancy Pelosi, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and socialism. Not only will this drive up Republican turnout, it will make many traditionally Republican but on-the-fence voters, of which there are quite a few, more wary of McCready. I think Trump’s visit will put Dan Bishop over the top. I’m moving this race from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican. I only use the Tilt rating when deciding a favorite for Toss-Up races near Election Day.
Here are Dan McCready’s benchmarks:
Full Benchmarks:
Anson: 57.9%
Bladen: 41.3%
Cumberland: 51.7%
Mecklenburg: 54.2%
Richmond: 50.5%
Robeson: 56.7%
Scotland: 56.2%
Union: 39.4%
Richmond County is the district’s best bellwether county. Watch if McCready can win more than 40% of the vote in Union county, the district’s largest whole county. Part of the state’s largest county, Mecklenburg, is in the district. If McCready gets 55% or more of the vote from it, he’ll win.
See you on the other side.