Tomorrow, important governor elections will take place in Kentucky and Mississippi, as well as state legislative elections in Virginia that could determine the state’s political future. There are also many local elections taking place all around the country, such as the election for mayor of Philadelphia and New Jersey State House. Check to see if any are happening in your town, and be sure to vote if there are.
6pm: Will the Bluegrass State Flip Blue?
I am predicting Andy Beshear (D) will unseat Matt Bevin (R) tomorrow. This may be surprising, given the state supported Trump by 30 points, but incumbent Republican governor Matt Bevin is one of the, if not the most unpopular governor in the country. In this day in age, states or districts that voted for Trump or Clinton by 15 points or more mostly vote for the same party down ballot. Many of the exceptions are in cases when that party’s candidate is unpopular. Think of when Republican Roy Moore, who was accused by several women of assault, blew a Senate race in Alabama, which voted for Trump by 28 points, or when ultra-conservative Kris Kobach lost by 5 points in Kansas, a Trump+20 state. Local sources say that Andy Beshear’s groundgame is the best they’ve seen. Trump is visiting Kentucky tonight to campaign for Bevin, but I don’t think that’ll move the needle as much. He won’t talk about how Matt Bevin is a great governor of Kentucky, he’ll talk about how great of a president he is. When he mentioned Matt Bevin’s name at a Kentucky rally in 2018, his own supporters booed. I think tomorrow night we will get a rare reprieve from the predictable, hyper-partisan voting that has become commonplace in most of the country. Still, this is the closest race of the night. One problem Beshear has is he’s pretty much your given establishment liberal. It’s my belief that if Rocky Adkins, a pro-life state representative, had won the primary, this would be a Lean Democrat race.
Here are 16 bellwether counties that could be predictors of the statewide popular vote:
The counties surrounding Lexington, Louisville, and Cincinnati, OH will be key to the election. These are the kinds of non-affluent, working class suburbs that aren’t necessarily trending left in presidential elections. The good news for Beshear is that he doesn’t have to win many of the rural, backwoodsy counties, though cutting Republican margins there will be a necessity.
7pm: A Referendum on Trump or Liberal Democrats?
If Democrats flip both Houses of the Virginia State Legislature, it would bring an end to Virginia’s history of conservative politics and usher in a more liberal style of governing. They look on track to flip the Virginia State Senate by flipping districts 7 and 10, not to mention the fact they have a solid chance in flipping 5 other districts. The larger challenge will be the House of Delegates, where both parties have their share of targets. Given the direction Virginia is going, and the redistricting that occurred this year that was more favorable to Democrats, I’m leaning towards it to flipping blue. Some Democrats in the state are feeling a bit more uneasy about their chances, but the same people who thought that thought Ralph Northam’s election would be close, even though he won by 9 points. If Republicans really have a chance to hold the chamber, they’ll flip 2 out of these 5 districts: 10, 50, 72, 73, 85. If they flip 3, they’ve held on to the House of Delegates.
These elections will be the best indicator tommorow night of how things look for 2020. I may be ready to call Trump a re-election favorite if the GOP holds the House of Delegates. If Democrats get big majorities in both chambers, it shows Trump has his work cut out for him.
8pm: Will a Court Decide the Governor?
It’s definitely possible in Mississippi, where a rule states that if a candidate doesn’t win a majority of the popular vote and a majority of State House districts, the Republican-dominated state legislature decides the governor. They’d pick Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves (R). It’s probable that Democrat Jim Hood (D), needs to get around 54% of the vote to win a majority of state House districts, because they’re gerrymandered. Since this law is a relic of the Jim Crow area, if there is a split in who wins the popular vote and who wins the majority of state House districts, lawsuits will fly like the birds migrating. There is a pretty good case for this law being unconstitutional, so a court would decide who becomes governor. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I believe there is a better than 50% chance Tate Reeves wins both the popular vote and the state House districts. The only reason Jim Hood (D) has a chance in Mississippi is because he is the state’s attorney general who won statewide by impressive margins 4 times. He’s also pro-life and pro-2nd amendment, like a lot of Mississippi voters. Still, I don’t believe he’s running the strong campaign he needs to break through in this Trump+18 state, and Tate Reeves is pretty solid. Maybe Hood’s record as Attorney General will be enough on its own, but I think he’s the underdog to get 50 percent, much less 54 percent. I’d say there’s a 5% chance Hood wins both the popular vote and the state House districts, and about a 30% chance the election is decided by a court.
Like in Kentucky, here are the bellwether counties in Mississippi. Jim Hood’s performance in these counties will be close to his share of the vote statewide.
As you can see, all the counties are in the middle part of the state, which reflects the east-west divide in the state. The majority African-American counties in the west vote Democrat, but as you go east, it gets whiter and redder. This puts the deciding counties in the middle.
See you on the other side!