House Ratings Changes
Since I last made a post devoted to Congressional Ratings changes late last July, situations have changed enough in 14 Congressional districts to warrant ratings changes. Most of these changes are for local and candidate-specific reasons, so they don’t say much about the national environment.
| District | Old Rating | New Rating |
| AL-1 | Likely Republican | Safe Republican |
| CA-48 | Lean Democrat | Toss-Up |
| CA-50 | Lean Republican | Likely Republican |
| GA-6 | Toss-Up | Lean Democrat |
| IL-6 | Likely Democrat | Safe Democrat |
| KS-2 | Likely Republican | Lean Republican |
| MI-11 | Likely Democrat | Lean Democrat |
| NC-3 | Likely Republican | Safe Republican |
| NC-9 | Tilt Republican | Lean Republican |
| NY-11 | Toss-Up | Lean Democrat |
| NY-27 | Lean Republican | Likely Republican |
| TX-22 | Likely Republican | Toss-Up |
| TX-23 | Toss-Up | Lean Democrat |
| TX-24 | Lean Republican | Toss-Up |
GOP Special Election Victories
Republicans won both North Carolina special elections in North Carolina last month. In NC-3, Republican Greg Murphy won by a wide than expected margin, and the district moves from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. In NC-9, Republican Dan Bishop won by a smaller 2-point margin in a Trump+12 district. His narrow margins reflect his potential weakness and that the district may not be as red as it seems. I believe he starts as a favorite, and I’ll rate the race Lean Republican, because Bishop’s opponent, Dan McCready, was probably the best candidate Democrats have had in the district, and he still lost. He is unlikely to run again. Still, maybe Dan Bishop was boosted by a visit from Donald Trump, something that won’t be the case in 2020 with the Presidential race getting all the attention.
Old Oopsies
Republicans Chris Collins (R, NY-27) and Duncan Hunter (R, CA-50) represent districts that would be Safe Republican, if it weren’t for their insider trading and misuse of campaign funds scandals respectively. Fortunately for the GOP, Chris Collins has resigned from Congress, forcing a special election without his name on the ballot. Also, polling from Duncan Hunter’s district shows he’s probably an underdog to make the general election. Both districts, NY-27 and CA-50, move from Lean Republican to Likely Republican due to the increased likelihood of a non-damaged GOP nominee.
New Oopsies
The opposite move was made in Kansas’ 2nd district, where incumbent Republican Steve Watkins has dealt with a mini-scandal regarding his alleged sending of inappropriate, pornographic images. He was also never a good fit for the moderate district anyway.
In Michigan’s 11th congressional district in blue-trending suburban Detroit, it was thought that the rather anonymous, inoffensive Democrat Haley Stevens wouldn’t have much trouble winning re-election, as she won last time by 7 points. However, a video was taken of her screaming at constituents at a town hall, where she said “The NRA has got to go”. This her image as an easygoing moderate, a valuable thing in a purple, Trump+5 district. This race moves from Likely Democrat to Leans Democrat.
It looks like the Republican nominee to face Sean Casten in IL-6 will be Jeanne Ives, a far-right state lawmaker who released an ad in her governor bid last year called “Thank You Bruce Rauner”, which has some racist and homophobic undertones. No way she’s winning a Clinton+7 district that’s only getting more blue. If her primary opponent, former Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti, got her campaign going, this would be a Lean Democrat race, but she dropped out. The race moves from Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat.
Texodus
6 Texas House Republicans have announced their retirement at the end of the term, 3 of them from competitive districts. The most impactful was Will Hurd. He’s a likeable, moderate from a mostly rural, Clinton+3 district. He would’ve had a much better chance at winning re-election than a generic Republican. Given the district’s leftward tilt, it moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat. There are two other impactful retirements, those of Pete Olson and Kenny Marchant, from TX-22 and TX-24 respectively. TX-22 is a diverse suburban district near Houston that voted for Trump by 8 points, Olson by 5 in 2018, and for Cruz over O’Rourke by less than 1. The districts demographics are rapidly changing in favor of Democrats, and Democrat Sri Kulkrani, who can speak 6 languages, is a good candidate for this district. The district moves from Likely Republican to Toss-Up. Going about 230 miles north to the 24th district between Dallas and Fort Worth, TX-24 voted for Kenny Marchant by 3 points over a no-name Democrat in 2018 and voted for Beto O’Rourke, showing how blue it is trending. With his retirement, there’s no reason to think this is much of anything but a Toss-Up. Fortunately for the GOP since then, there hasn’t been a retirement in a competitive district.
Speaking of people leaving the House, I thought Bradley Byrne’s departure in Alabama’s 1st district could open up an opportunity for a Democrat if Senator Doug Jones (D-AL) won re-election, because he’d probably win this district if he did win. However, the he two Democrat candidates have raised negligible money, and won’t break through in the Trump+29 district. Doug Jones’ re-election prospects have only gotten grimmer. This race moves from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. More on Doug Jones in a bit.
Mixed GOP Fortunes in the Suburbs
If the GOP wants any chance at taking back the House, they’ll need to win back some of the purple and red-leaning suburban districts they lost in 2018. It looks like they’re not on track to do so in two districts, GA-6 north of Atlanta, and NY-11 on Staten Island, represented by House freshmen Lucy McBath and Max Rose respectively. Both districts move from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat. The story in both districts is similar. Both voted for Trump in 2016, but for a Democrat governor last year, showing their leftward trend. Both of the Congresspeople have proven to be among the most politically talented of their class, while their Republican opponents have either proven lackluster so far, or have gone beneath the belt, resorting to name calling (or both). Those specific Republicans look unlikely to make inroads in these suburban districts. Alternatively, Republicans have a great candidate against Democrat Harley Rouda in CA-48, in Orange County Board of Supervisors member Michelle Steel. Instead of acting partisan, she’s focusing on present, local issues in her district. She has an inspiring background as an Asian immigrant woman who worked her way up government. She has outraised Harley Rouda, rare for a Republican challenger to a Democrat incumbent in an off-year. CA-48 moves from Lean Democrat to Toss-Up, becoming the only district won by Hillary Clinton to be in Toss-Up.
Here is a graph of the new House Ratings:
Senate Ratings Changes
We are making 4 Senate ratings changes, 3 in favor of Democrats, 1 in favor of Republicans
| State | Old Rating | New Rating |
| Alaska | Safe Republican | Likely Republican |
| Georgia | Lean Republican | Likely Republican |
| Iowa | Likely Republican | Lean Republican |
| Maine | Likely Republican | Lean Republican |
Want to know a good way to see which candidates and campaigns are getting traction? How much money they’ve raised. Money was the main reason behind three of these ratings changes. In Alaska, Dr. Al Gross, who’s an Independent but has been endorsed by the state Democrat party and says he will caucus with Dems if elected, has outraised incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. Republicans are secretly getting a bit worried about this race. Alaska is a very independent-minded state, so I’ll change the Senate rating to match my rating for the Presidential race in Alaska, at Likely Republican.
The Democrat field for the Georgia Senate is probably the weakest in a competitive state this year. All candidates are struggling to raise money, and are either still no-names statewide (Teresa Tomlinson and Sarah Riggs Amico), or have a losing record in elections (Jon Ossoff). This race is a missed opportunity for Democrats, and moves from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.
2018 congressional candidate turned 2020 Senate candidate Theresa Greenfield has outraised Republican incumbent Joni Ernst in Iowa, who according to Morning Consult’s quarterly Senator approval polls, has an approval rating problem. Greenfield hopes she can use her upbringing on a farm to appeal to Iowans, many of whom are struggling even more with the tariff wars, on a level previous losing statewide candidates couldn’t. The race rating becomes the same as the Iowa Presidential Rating, at Lean Republican.
Incumbent Republican Susan Collins in Maine has a history of bipartisanship, leading to winning by gargantuan margins in her blue-leaning state. However, she has voted more conservative during Trump’s term, and her approval ratings are falling hard. This is consistent with our country’s increasing partisanship. This race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
Here’s the new Senate Ratings map:
Republicans hope that a “red wall” across the South and Great Plains, coupled with Susan Collins’ popularity, would make capturing the Senate an impossible task for Democrats. Democrats should cheer these ratings changes, as it shows the red wall might be cracking in some spots. Still, Democrats need to back up this with a good win in the presidential race, barring an unexpected upset. I think the Democrat presidential candidate would need to not lose Arizona and North Carolina by more than 2 points to put Democrat Senate candidates there over the top. Assuming they lose Alabama, they’d need to gain one more. The presidential candidate would need to win Maine by 5 points or more to give Susan Collins a real chance at losing, or would need to win Georgia, or come within 2 points in Iowa to make those races Toss-Up. Doing one of those three things would require a strong performance by Biden, Warren, or whoever wins the Democrat nomination.
All told, if the Democrats chance of winning the presidency had stayed the same, their chances of capturing the Senate would’ve gone up. However, with the rise of Elizabeth Warren, the killing of Bahgdadi this morning, and the murky waters of impeachment, I’d say the Democrat’s chance of winning the presidency has gone down these last few months, and thus so have their Senate chances.
Senators to Watch During Impeachment
There are two Senators to watch if the House votes to impeach, Doug Jones (D-AL) and Susan Collins (R-ME). If Jones is going to win re-election in deep red Alabama, it will be because he has sponsored a lot of bills that the President has signed, showing his ability to work with him. Voting to convict Donald Trump would totally undermine his re-election strategy, and would probably be a death sentence in Alabama, a state where Trump remains very popular. The race would move to Likely Republican. Alternatively, it’s bad for Susan Collins if she doesn’t vote to convict Trump, IF a majority of Americans still support impeachment on election day. Under that circumstance, it would make her look like a partisan Senator, and she would barely outperform Trump, which isn’t a place Republicans want to be in Maine. If she votes not to convict, and polls show a majority of Americans want Trump removed, Maine becomes a Toss-Up race. If she does vote to convict, her re-election chances improve, as her bipartisan legacy would famously continue as people gradually forget her vote on Kavanaugh.
Elections November 5th
Finally, I’m moving the Virginia State Senate from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. Most political observers in the state agree the GOP has little hope of holding the chamber. The Lean Democrat rating for the Virginia State House remains, and so does the Toss-Up rating for Kentucky governor and the Lean Republican rating for Mississippi governor. I will make a final prediction for the pretty much 50/50 Kentucky governor election sometime next weekend.
The results November 5th will give us a good idea of the political climate. If Republicans hold on to the Virginia State House, the message is that Democratic figures up and down the ballot, from Warren and Sanders to Virginia governor Ralph Northam and Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, who’ve been accused of wearing blackface and rape respectively, to State Delegates Ibraheem Samirah and Joe Morrisey, the former interrupted President Trump’s speech regarding the 400 year anniversary of Virginia, in a way even many Democrats considered childish and inappropriate , the latter was jailed or arrested five times, are all discouraging people to vote for Democrats who might have otherwise warmed up to them because of Trump. If Democrats flip the House of Delegates, it shows resentment of Trump in the suburbs is alive and well. If Democrats can defeat unpopular Republican governor Matt Bevin in deep-red Kentucky, it shows they have a chance at beating another unpopular Republican Kentucky politician: Mitch McConnell.
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