Remember at the beginning of the year when the “Big 4” for the Democrat nomination were Biden, Bernie, Beto, and Harris, when Warren was considered among the second-tier candidates at best? Those days are no more. As Beto and Harris’s polling numbers slid down, Elizabeth Warren was seen as an inspiring, rising star with a plan, and emerged as a progressive alternative to Bernie. Here’s the graph that says it all: It shows polling averages for the candidates over the last six months, with today’s average in the top-right.
As you can see, at the end of the graph, Elizabeth Warren’s poll numbers have increased dramatically. Barring something going wrong at October 15th’s debate, I’d say she surpasses Biden in this metric by the end of the month. Speaking of the debate, it’s going to be an absolute s***-show. If you thought 10 candidates on the stage at once wasn’t enough, well there will be twelve this time, including all the top-tier candidates, with everyone inevitably trying to land that attack that finally sinks the other’s campaign. It’s going to be awesome. Anyway, back to Warren. She’s polling very well in Iowa, at 23%, or 3% above Biden and 11% above Bernie. Part of her rise probably has to do with the media’s love affair with her. Among Democratic circles, it’s the consensus opinion that she’s the most intelligent and inspiring candidate. With that kind of reputation, it’s much easier for her poll numbers to grow. I also think Bernie’s recent heart attack may help Warren. Whether it’s fair or not is an open question, but it’s likely Bernie’s flaws will be put on the spotlight, mainly, not knowing if he is even alive by the end of his term, and his weakness in electability. Some major corporations, such as Facebook, have not-so-privately shown their dismay and fear of Warren, which probably helps her to get the anti-corporate progressives more than hurts her in the primary. Due to the reasons outlined in this section, she claims the #1 position on the Best-Shot Tracker from Joe Biden.
Other Changes on the Best-Shot Tracker
Pete Buttigieg has surpassed Kamala Harris for spot #4. Once thought to be a major contender after the June debates, her support has slid below what it had been before June. She came off as rehearsed, not well-spoken, and non-inspiring to some. Her biggest problem was trying to out-progressive Warren and Bernie. The statements in her debates made it clear she was angling for the “woke” liberal voters. Warren and Bernie already have those voters locked up, and Harris wasn’t the right candidate to try to contest those voters, given her not-progressive-enough record in law enforcement. Harris’s actual chance at the nomination has diminished significantly since June, but if she is going to save her failing campaign, she needs to transition away from this strategy and try to go after uneasy Biden and Warren supporters by highlighting her history in law enforcement, which was still fairly liberal, instead of suppressing it. Meanwhile, Buttigieg has impressed in Iowa, and is almost polling above Bernie Sanders there, at 11%.
Once you get under Pete Buttigieg, it’s basically just a bunch of candidates polling 0-2%. However, there is one candidate in this group who may be beginning to rise above it: Andrew Yang. He’s polling at above 3% and has raised 257% more money in the third quarter than in the second, at about $10 million, enough to go toe-to-toe with Kamala Harris. He has energetic support online and street cred among GenZers and young Millennials. He moves to spot #6. Alternatively, Julian Castro, who has publicly fretted about his campaign running out of money, and may drop out soon, drops to #11.
New Debate Thresholds
The DNC has released polling and donor thresholds for making the debates. Each candidate has to get 3% or more in 4 national and early-state polls, or 5% or more in 2 early-state polls, and have 165,000 unique donors. The top 5 on the best-shot tracker are all locks to make it. It looks like Andrew Yang, Cory Booker, Tom Steyer, Beto O’Rourke, and Amy Klobuchar each have a better than 50% chance of making it, in that order. But there’s also probably a better than 50% chance that one of those four don’t make it, and a real chance that two or three don’t. Things don’t look good for Julian Castro and Tulsi Gabbard’s chances of making this round. Anyone who isn’t on stage on October 15th will almost certainly not make the November debate. I’d expect several candidates to drop out soon after they officially don’t make this debate. There’s really no reason for candidates like Tim Ryan, John Delaney and Michael Bennet to still be in the race.
Early State Ratings
Much like I rate the general elections, I will also rate the presidential primaries, starting with the 4 early states, the foundation for what comes next. Too many different scenarios could play out and there are too many utterly unknown variables to make it worth rating the other states. Here they are.
Iowa, the #1 destination for primary candidates, will be bitterly contested for in a close nomination, with a lot of both moderate and progressive WWC voters. Bernie’s polling numbers have really dropped off in this state, so it really seems like a Biden vs. Warren show.
While polling has been equally close in New Hampshire, the state borders Warren home-state of Massachusetts and contains a lot of center-left to progressive white voters she’ll need to win the nomination. NH is also sparsely populated, which probably is bad for Biden, who does better in big cities. If Warren really is the frontrunner, she will win the state.
Nevada’s also been very close. While we have limited polling data from here, the polls that have come out show Nevada might be Bernie’s best chance to win an early state. This tracks, as he is the most likely candidate to tap into the state’s union-dominated GOTV infrastructure. He also seems to do better in the Mountain West. It’s a three-way Toss-Up for now.
South Carolina is the least exciting of the early states. Biden leads by an average of 20 points in the polls there, due to his heavy African-American support, which seems unlikely to be contested all that much by Bernie or Warren. Harris, the only candidate who could, has more pressing problems right now. Unless someone besides Biden takes a huge lead in national-level polls, Biden can probably rely on South Carolina.
This has been Toss-Up Central’s October Democrat Primary Update. See you in a few days for updates on this year’s three governor races.