Welcome to my ratings for the 2020 presidential election. November 3, 2020 will be a moment in history our children or grandchildren will read about in the textbooks. That day is the pinacle between Americans, for the second time, electing Donald Trump and allowing him to continue to exalt his agenda and rhetoric, or likely breaking some kind of barrier by voting in a Democrat, ushering in an era of liberal policy. Are you ready? Let’s do this!
My electoral college rankings show a very close election. The Republican party starts out with only one(!) more electoral vote leaning their way than Democrats. However, many more states softly favor Republicans than do Democrats, so the electoral vote ceiling is much higher for the Democrats, at about 380, while Trump could only realistically get about 340. These are very extreme outcomes, and it’s unlikely that the final outcome will even be near these totals. As I lay out in my other post: Assessing The Political Environment for 2020(1), I estimate the political environment to be near even. The 2020 presidential race clearly starts out as a Toss-Up.
Without further ado, let’s get cracking with these ratings. In the Likely, Leans, and Toss-Up categories, the races are arranged from most likely to go Republican to most likely to go Democrat. If I have an intuition about the Toss-Up states, I’ll state those as well.
Safe Republican: 122 Electoral Votes
South Carolina (9 Electoral Votes), West Virginia (5), Kentucky (8), Indiana (11), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Louisiana (8), Arkansas (6), Missouri (10), Oklahoma (7), Kansas (6), Nebraska (4), South Dakota (3), North Dakota (3), Wyoming (3), Montana (3), Idaho (4), Utah (6)
Safe Democrat: 188 Electoral Votes
Maine’s 1st CD (1), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New York (29), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), District of Columbia (3), Illinois (20), New Mexico (5), California (55), Oregon (7), Washington (12), Hawaii (4)
Likely Republican: 59 Electoral Votes
Alaska (3)
2016 Result: Trump +15%
Probably the safest of the Likely Republican states, what makes me uneasy about putting this in Safe GOP is the major effect climate change is having on this state, literally changing people’s entire ways of life. President Trump pulling out of the Paris accords is likely unpopular here. Still, this state backed it’s two statewide Republican candidates last year even under extraordinary circumstances advantaging Democrats last year, so this state is very likely still conservative enough to vote Trump.
Texas (38)
2016 Result: Trump +9%
People won’t soon forget Beto O’Rourke’s strong performance in this state last year, coming within 2 points of victory. This margin would suggest this state is more competitive, but Beto was a once in a generation candidate, and no ordinary Democrat could replicate his performance. Still, the state’s changing demographics and high suburban population make it not as much a GOP stronghold as it once was. Beto could also run for president.
Ohio (18)
2016 Result: Trump +8%
Once one of the most hotly-contested swing states in the country, largely white and blue-collar Ohio is now clearly trending red. It voted Mike DeWine for governor last year by 5 points in a race though to be Toss-Up, and voted for Republicans rather comfortably in it’s 2 most competitive House races last year. (Keep in mind that the governor and house races happened in a blue wave) It looks like Ohio is a lean red state this cycle and beyond.
Leans Republican: 48 Electoral Votes
Iowa (6)
Trump +10%
Like Ohio, this state went from being competitive to voting Trump easily. Unlike Ohio, it voted Democrats in 3 of its 4 congressional districts, or 75%. The other district was no easy win for the GOP either. This state may be already trending back towards the Democrats. Trump’s tarrifs might have something to do with that. Still, it will be an uphill climb for them to erase Trump’s margin here, especially because Kim Reynolds-R just won the governorship by 3 points.
Georgia (16)
Trump +5%
One of the more skilled recruits for governor the state has seen, Stacey Abrams fell short by 2 points last year. While Georgia is becoming very competitive, if Stacey couldn’t do it in 2018, who can in 2020? Trump’s strong performance in the South also helps him here.
North Carolina (15)
Trump +4%
With the exception of the blue wave year of 2008, North Carolina hasn’t voted Democrat for president since Jimmy Carter in 1976. The state has had some close calls, and is considered by a good number of people a swing state. However, Democrats missed out on three good opportunities in the House to flip seats.
Arizona (11)
Trump +3%
This state is the opposite of Ohio. A lean Republican state that shows signs of trending blue, such as electing a Democrat senator Kyrsten Sinema in a Toss-Up race last year. While that was impressive, other Democrats here faltered, showing that it was Sinema’s strength as a candidate, not the state’s partisan lean, that gave her the victory. This state is getting more competitive, but it Leans Republican for now.
Toss-Up: 81 Electoral Votes
Florida (29)
Trump +1%
Democrats got a one-two punch of devastating upsets from this state in 2018, with Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott being elected Governor and Senator, respectively, in a blue wave year no less. Due to this, I was toying with the idea of putting this in Lean Republican, but the wins of those two were mostly the result of a pro-GOP surge among Hispanic voters in Southern Florida, a voting group the two specifically reached out to. Based on Trump’s tactics, he is unlikely to do outreach to these voters, and the pendulum may swing back, giving Dems a victory. This state, as it always has been, is Toss-Up.
Maine’s 2nd District (1)
Trump +10%
Despite being a Trumpian district, Democrat Jared Golden narrowly beat out incumbent Bruce Poliquin, in a district that hasn’t voted out an incumbent in over a century until then. Obama also won this district by a similar margin to Trump’s in 2012. For those who may be confused about why we’re rating this district, Maine and Nebraska award electoral votes by congressional district, not solely by popular vote.
Nebraska’s 2nd District (1)
Trump +2%
Like Iowa, Trump’s tariffs may be taking a toll in Nebraska, as incumbent congressman Don Bacon won by just two points against a mediocre candidate last year, and the two statewide Democrats probably won the district. It’s also a urban district, the kind of district that swung hard against the GOP. I’ll put this traditionally light-red locale into Toss-Up. If I had to bet money, however, I’d probably still go with Trump with extreme reluctance.
Wisconsin (10)
Trump +1%
Usually, I have an intuition about how the races I rate as “Toss-Up” are going to break. I can’t say I have one for this state, nor do I have one for New Hampshire. These start as the purest of our Toss-Ups. Wisconsin had mixed results last year, with every GOP-held house seat going GOP by double digits, yet conservative champion Scott Walker faltered in his fourth gubernatorial race.
New Hampshire (4)
Clinton <1%
Like Wisconsin, New Hampshire had mixed results last midterm. It re-elected it’s Republican governor Chris Sununu by 6 points, yet voted for Democrats in it’s two perenially-competitive House districts by over 9 points each.
Michigan (16)
Trump <1%
Democrats flipped two Trump-voting House seats last year, and won it’s two major statewide races by over 5 points. This and the large African-American voting bases in Detroit and Flint aren’t doing Trump any favors, but the state voted for him, so I don’t feel comfortable putting it in Leans Democrat quite yet.
Pennsylvania (20)
Trump +1%
The story here is similar to Michigan, but worse for Trump. Democrats netted 3 seats here in 2018, and won the statewide races by over a dozen points. The reason it’s a Toss Up is because the Democrat’s gain here was mostly due to redistricting, and the statewide Democrats here had their own brands with appeal to white, blue-collar workers, while the statewide Republicans were weak and at least one of them was gaffe-plagued. Still, these results are ominous for Trump’s prospects of winning this state again.
Leans Democrat: 27 Electoral Votes
Minnesota (10)
Clinton +2%
Unlike the other rust belt states in Toss-Up, Clinton’s win here and this state’s historic Democrat lean (it hasn’t voted Republican since 1972) start Democrats on higher ground here.
Maine (2)
Clinton +3%
This state has been considered blue for a long time, but it’s prohibitively white and the most sparsely populated state east of the Mississippi, i.e. a place that sounds like Trump country. The state’s Democrat lean has become less and less intense each cycle, and this may be the year it flips.
Nevada (6)
Clinton +2%
Lean Democrat seems like the right rating for a minority heavy, largely suburban swing state in the Trump era, The midterm results here bode well for the Democrats as well.
Colorado (9)
Clinton +5%
Colorado is becoming blue, with governor Jared Polis and representative Jason Crow winning by much higher than anticipated double-digit margins. Peculiarly, the state’s blue-collar, majority-white counties in the Western Slope didn’t swing to Trump in 2016, unlike almost everywhere else in the nation, which could be an avenue for a Trump upset here.
Likely Democrat: 13 Electoral Votes
Virginia (13)
Clinton +5%
And finally, Virginia. The Ohio of the Democrat party, this largely suburban, diverse is clearly trending blue. 3 of the state’s house seats flipped last year, one by over 10 points. Former VP candidate Tim Kaine won re-election to the Senate by 16 points. Virginia is no longer a swing state.
And here is the map:
229-228 Republican: 264-260 Democrat when “Toss-Up Intuition” is factored in
Tune in next Sunday for Senate rankings.
(1)https://tossupcentral.com/assessing-the-political-environment-for-2020/