I think it’s time to re-visit the fundamentals of the presidential race, and break out Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House once again. For those unaware, Lichtman, an American University professor, created a system that has predicted the popular vote winner in every election since 1980. He also predicted Trump would be impeached way back in 2016, before calling for it was “cool”. The system revolves around 13 true/false statements. If 5 or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party will win the popular vote. If 6 or more are false, the challenging party will win the popular vote. This system focuses much more on the performance of the incumbent party than the “horse race” of the presidential campaign many people think decides the presidency. We haven’t looked at this system since this website was launched this January, and a lot has changed since then. Here are the true-false statements, and whether or not they are true or false at this point.
- After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Hard False, as Republicans have lost 47 seats in the House since the 2014 midterms.
- There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. Soft True. This key goes hand in hand with the next one. It’s unlikely Trump could face a serious fight for the nomination of his own party, but if he’s removed from office, it will be a power-scramble.
- The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. Soft True. Trump fully intends to run for re-election. In theorem, what could stop him if he is impeached and removed from office. This seems unlikely now, given 20 Republican Senators need to vote to remove Trump from office, and all Democrats. Impeachment proceedings have historically been very volatile, however.
- There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. Soft True. With Howard Schultz out of the race, it doesn’t seem like there will be a third-party effort on the level of what there is in 2016. Still, with things as volatile as there are, you never know who could pop up.
- The economy is not in recession during the campaign. Soft True. No one can predict how the economy will look this time next year, but things are looking good right now.
- Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms. Hard True. Mean GDP per capita growth during Obama’s two terms was 1.5875%. During Trump’s first two years, it was 2.65%. It is unlikely that a recession happens this year, and even if it does, it probably won’t be bad enough to reduce this figure below 1.5875%. Whatever happens after 2019 won’t affect this figure, as it only counts years before the year of the election.
- The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Hard True. Under Lichtman’s definition in book, The Keys to the White House, Trump and Republican’s tax reform counts as a “major change in national policy”, as it widely affected commerce. Trump’s also made major policy changes on the immigration front. If you want to check out his book, look at the link below.
- There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Hard False, obviously.
- The incumbent administration is untainted by a major scandal. Hard False. More on this in a bit.
- The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Soft True. Trump’s foreign policy has been far from perfect, but nothing that would constitute a “major failure”. Of course, who knows what could happen between now and next fall.
- The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Hard True. At this moment, the ISIS flag is not flying over any town in the Middle East, or anywhere. Once feared by Americans, the terrorist organization has lost relevance for now. Whether or not this was caused by Obama, Trump, or America at all, this fits the criteria.
- The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Hard False. Lichtman himself has described Trump as uncharismatic, and I see no reason to believe that has changed.
- The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Soft True. More on this in a bit.
As of right now, 4 keys are hard falses, 6 are soft truths, and 3 are hard truths. The incumbent party candidate, in this case, Trump, needs 8 keys to be true in order to be sure of his re-election, according to this system. 5 of the 6 “soft true” keys have to become “hard truths” to re-elect Trump. Half the battle for Trump is staying in office. If, as expected, Republicans don’t vote to remove him from office, keys 2 and 3, incumbency and intra-party primary contest, become hard truths. He also needs to avoid an overseas debacle, which key 10 regards. From there, things get dicey, as there are several variables out of his control. He doesn’t have control over who the Democrats nominate, and thus key 13 relating to challenger charisma. Joe Biden certainly wouldn’t fill that criteria, and Elizabeth Warren probably wouldn’t either. Some people in Democratic circles have touted her persuasive ability, so she’d have a higher chance than Biden to clinch this key. Beyond that, he also has to pray away a recession and a third-party insurgent campaign that gets 5% or more of the vote, on account of keys 5 and 4, respectively. If it comes down to the “uncontrollable” keys of 4, 5, and 13, 2 false keys will result in a Trump loss, and 2 true keys re-elect Trump. So, looking at it like this, the election is a pure Toss-Up.
It’s easy to see how things go south if Trump is removed from office. The thing about Trump scandals is that they usually involve those closest to him, so chances are the cloud of scandal will still hang over the White House, and the 8th key dealing with scandals wouldn’t change, nor would any of the other hard false keys. Keys 2 and 3, regarding the incumbency advantage and a serious intra-party nomination contest, would also turn false, and, bingo, that’s 6 false keys, throwing the election to the Democrats.
If the keys are to be believed, the race is probably closer to a Toss-Up than anything. Of course, there is very good reason to not believe the keys this time around. One reason is the intense partisanship our country is going through. People look at national events through the lens of their ideology as opposed to the lens of what’s better for the country. Since the Obama era, presidential approval hasn’t been consistent with how people feel about the economy. This trend continues into the Trump era. According to the RCP polling averages, Americans approve Trump’s handling of the economy by a margin of one point, while they disapprove of Donald Trump overall by 9 points. You also didn’t see a lot of media coverage about the defeat of ISIS when it occurred, where instead it would have been the good news of the month, suggesting people don’t care as much about foreign affairs as much as they perhaps should be. Another reason is Donald Trump’s precedent-breaking style. Trump’s campaign is clearly more oriented to his existing base of voters as opposed to “swing voters”. This has resulted in the media covering the latest crazy thing he said, instead of the improving conditions on the economic and foreign fronts. He isn’t making it a priority to present these accomplishments to swing voters either. Lichtman’s 13 Keys will be put to the test in 2020.
You also have to remember that the popular vote winner isn’t always the winner of the election. This system is meant to predict the popular vote winner. However, this is probably to Trump’s advantage, as his goal going into 2020 is to just do what he did last time, and win the same kinds of voters and states. Last time, he didn’t win the popular vote.
What About Impeachment?
The main question on people’s minds right now is will impeachment help or hurt Trump and Republicans. Partisans will try to spin things their way, but, it’s really too early to be drawing any conclusions about the 2020 race. As I said before, in the unlikely event Trump caves in on himself and he is removed from office, it likely favors Democrats. What’s more likely is that he is impeached by the House, or at least an impeachment inquiry is launched into him, and acquitted by the Senate. In recent history, the two presidents who’ve come close to impeachment, Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton, experienced different results. It made Clinton more popular, but Nixon was forced to resign. If an impeachment inquiry is launched into Trump and nothing is found, it would clear Trump’s name in the eyes of some swing voters, and his approval will increase, if only marginally. It’d be even better if the Democratic House impeaches even if nothing is found in the eyes of swing voters, then Trump’s telling of a witch hunt would be confirmed. Alternatively, if grounds for impeachment are found, his chances of re-election obviously go way down. You hear a lot “in the eyes of swing voters”. What really matters is the voter’s perception of what actually went down, and whether or not a majority of voters think there are grounds for impeachment.
Once this all blows over, if we’re still on President 45, watch the polls. Before the whistleblower campaign, about 37% of Americans supported impeachment. If above 45% want impeachment in a few months, Trump should be nervous. If 50% or more want impeachment, then Trump’s in big trouble, as it is probably reflective of swing voters in swing states abandoning him in droves. As someone whose read the transcript between Trump and Zelensky in its entirety, I’ll say that the impeachable offense the Democrats are going after is seen vaguely at best in the transcript itself. If something is going to move the needle significantly, it will come from the impeachment inquiry.