The scene of the presidential race is changing noticeably. Joe Biden has all but locked up the Democratic nomination, just as the coronavirus pandemic is taking a critical toll on America. It’s safe to say that this changes a few things. I am making 5 ratings changes to our electoral college map.
| State/District(Electoral Votes) | Old Rating | New Rating |
| Arizona(11) | Lean Trump | Toss-Up |
| Iowa(6) | Lean Trump | Likely Trump |
| ME-2(1) | Toss-Up | Lean Trump |
| North Carolina(15) | Lean Trump | Toss-Up |
| Pennsylvania(20) | Toss-Up | Lean Biden |
Let’s briefly discuss these changes.
There’s no doubt that Joe Biden was the best Democratic candidate at getting African-Americans to vote for him and at getting real support among older voters. Any look at exit polls and election data from the primaries proves this. His strength among African-Americans and older voters are what push North Carolina and Arizona respectively into Toss-Up.
The wild card for Joe Biden in North Carolina is suburban voters. Last year, Dan McCready generated historically large Democratic margins in suburban Charlotte in a special election, despite losing the election overall. McCready was a young, charismatic, centrist candidate. The question is: Was McCready’s performance an aberration? Or is it a sign of things to come? Either way, if Joe Biden does half as better than HRC than McCready did in the Charlotte suburbs, he’s in a good position to win the state. I bet Joe Biden could learn a thing or two from McCready to improve his chances in suburbs not just in North Carolina, but in Arizona and all around the country.
I’m making two pro-Trump ratings changes in largely rural areas, Iowa and ME-2. Something that’s becoming difficult to ignore is Trump’s bump in approval ratings since coronavirus began to spread rampantly in the U.S. shortly after his acquittal by the Senate. In times of crisis, Americans tend to rally, at least for a short while, around their leaders. Democratic and Republican officials alike are saying now is not the time for partisanship. It makes sense now to make some pro-Trump ratings changes. I talked about in my last article that if coronavirus really gets out of control and the death toll is on the higher end of projections, people will turn on Trump. If that is the scenario that does happen, it will likely be a largely metropolitan event, because cities will get hit the hardest by the pandemic, while rural areas are much more likely to stand by Trump, as the virus will have less deep of an impact there. Iowa and ME-2 voted for Trump by over 9 points last time, and even without a coronavirus pandemic, I don’t believe Joe Biden has enough appeal in small-town America to overcome those margins, especially after he promised to appoint Beto O’Rourke to lead the gun control effort if he’s elected.
Finally, I’m putting Pennsylvania ever so slightly in Biden’s favor. Biden was born in Scranton, and despite representing Delaware in the senate, has made Philadelphia the city of his campaign headquarters. In a way, Pennsylvania is Biden’s “2nd home state”. Biden is familiar with Pennsylvania. He can turn out the black vote in Philadelphia like Obama did, and his liberal, but not progressive, positions on issues like healthcare and gun control may appeal to voters in the relatively affluent Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia suburbs, where a lot of Northeastern-style center-left voters live. Remember that Pennsylvania voted for a Democratic Governor and Senator in 2018 by over 14 points each.
However, I must state that Biden’s edge in Pennsylvania and his edge in Michigan are quite narrow. I have these two states as Lean Biden, because at this time, I believe that Biden has a slightly higher chance of winning those states than Trump, even though Biden may only win those two states, say 60 out of 100 times. These states are teetering on the edge of Toss-Up, and if Trump can show he’s improving in rural areas and not completely getting destroyed in suburbs, Toss-Up is where these two states are headed.
So where does this leave us?
There are six Toss-Ups on the board. Arizona(11), Florida(29), New Hampshire(4), Nebraska’s 2nd District(1), North Carolina(15), and Wisconsin(10). In order for Trump to win, he can only afford to lose one of New Hampshire and NE-2, and must otherwise sweep the Toss-Ups to get to 270 if he doesn’t win a Lean Biden state. It seems like each state is in Toss-Up for a different reason.
Uncertainty regarding how suburban voters will swing help put Arizona, North Carolina, and NE-2 in Toss-Up. Suburbs have been trending left in a hurry in the Trump era, but it may be that the traditionally Republican suburbs of these places still have some leftover negative views of Joe Biden, which he has done little to assuage.
Older and retired voters and Biden’s supposed strength with the group put Arizona and Florida in Toss-Up. In 2018, Latinos swung right a bit in Florida and helped Republicans win all but one statewide office. Latino voters may decide Florida (or Arizona) again this time. Both Biden and Trump have had trouble with this demographic in the past, so I’d anticipate Latins to be a voting bloc whose support is hard fought for.
The degree to which Biden can turn out African-Americas will determine whether he can win North Carolina or not. A lot of that depends on who he picks as his running mate.
Finally, the plight of the white-working class will decide the candidate’s fates in Wisconsin and New Hampshire (which remember, was by far Biden’s worst state in the primaries, but also the only Clinton state in Toss-Up.) Therefore, these are the five key demographics of this election.
I’d be lying if I told you how I truly believed the presidential race would turn out. Many Democrats feel like all they can do is wait the pandemic out. It’s not like anything Trump or Biden can do will pierce the coronavirus-centric airwaves. It’s too much of a wild card, we don’t know how bad the virus will get or where it will be at its worst. I still believe the presidential race is a Toss-Up. You may notice I have a lot of states that “Lean Trump” or “Lean Biden”. This is a product of all of the uncertainty, as I think every “Lean” state could be at Toss-Up by election day. If in November, we look back to April and think “That wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been.”, “The government’s response was as rational and effective as it could’ve been.” or “We were definitely better off than Spain and Italy.”, then a certain bloc of voters may see Trump in a new light, and some states that Clinton barely won like Nevada, Colorado, Maine, and Minnesota could become Toss-Up. If it gets really bad and hundreds of thousands die in the coming weeks, suburban voter’s anger at Trump will reach new levels, and Georgia and maybe even Texas could become Toss-Up.
It’s a long way to go to November, but Toss-Up Central will be with you every step of the way.
Thank you for reading my article. If you want more Toss-Up Central, visit my home page: https://tossupcentral.com/. New articles will be posted at least every other Sunday at 6PM EST.
Really interesting article! Great reporting, as usual.