Coming off the 2018 elections, where Democrats lost Senate seats due to having a lot of seats to defend in Trump country, many of them hope for a better result in the 2020 elections, gaining the 3 seats they need to flip the chamber. 2 senators from each party are up for re-election in states won by the other party’s presidential candidate in 2016, as opposed to 2018 where 10 Democrats and 1 Republican were in that situation. However, this better result for them is far from guaranteed.
Something that helps Democrats is that 2020 will almost certainly be more Democratic than 2014, the last time this class of Senators faced re-election. According to my estimate in “Assessing the Political Environment for 2020”(1), this year will be 7.2% more Democratic than 2014.
Anyway, let’s get to the ratings.
Initial 2020 Senate Ratings
31 Republican Senators Aren’t Facing Re-Election
15 Additional Safe R Seats
Dan Sullivan (AK)
Tom Cotton (AR)
Jim Risch (ID)*
Roberts (Open)(KS)>
Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS)>
Steve Daines (MT)>
Ben Sasse (NE)*
Jim Inhofe (OK)*
Bill Cassidy (LA)
Lindsey Graham (SC)*
Mike Rounds (SD)
Alexander (Open)(TN)
John Cornyn (TX)>
Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
Mike Enzi (WY)*
35 Democrat Senators Aren’t Facing Re-Election
8 Additional Safe D Seats:
Chris Coons (DE)
Dick Durbin (IL)>
Ed Markey (MA)*
Cory Booker (NJ)
Tom Udall (NM)*>
Jeff Merkley (OR)*
Tom Reed (RI)*
Mark Warner (VA)>
Potential Open Seats
States with an asterix (*) next to them are places where the seat could become open. Republicans Lamar Alexander (TN) and Pat Roberts (KS) have already announced retirement plans, and Sens. Mike Enzi (R-WY), Jim Risch (R-ID), Jim Inhofe (R-OK), Tom Udall (D-NM), and Jack Reed (D-RI) may retire also, given that they’re all at least 70 years old and have served at least 2 terms. Republicans Ben Sasse (NE) and Lindsey Graham (SC) have been critical of Trump, which may result in a primary challenge. Graham, however, gets respect from Trumpian Republicans for his boldness during the Kavanaugh hearings. Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) kind of fits on both lists, old enough to retire, and some Massachusetts Democrats interested in a challenge. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and/or Cory Booker (D-NJ) may run for president, potentially preventing them from running for re-election. A minor caveat here is that in OR, one can’t run for Senate and president at the same time, but one could in NJ. Obviously, not all of these seats will become open, but some of them will.
Competitive Watch List
States with an > next to them are currently Safe seats that could become more competitive. On the Republican side, Cindy Hyde-Smith won by an unimpressive margin for a Mississippi republican in her special election a year ago, partly due to gaffes where she said she’d “be on the front row” of a public hanging, and may struggle to consolidate support for her first full term. Texas is a rapidly changing state, for the worse for Republicans, and Sen. John Cornyn may be dragged down by it. Steve Daines’ (R-MT) seat becomes competitive if popular Gov. Steve Bullock (D) runs, and Kansas’ open seat becomes competitive if Kris Kobach (R), who blew a gubernatorial race in one of the country’s reddest states, runs. On the Democratic side, Dick Durbin (D-IL) may become a victim of anti-establishment sentiment, as he is the Senate Minority Whip. Tom Udall (D-NM) and Mark Warner (D-VA) represent states trending blue, but only went for Clinton by single-digits nevertheless.
Likely Republican
Mitch McConnel (R-KY)
Good ol’ “Cocaine Mitch” finds himself in a shakier position than one might expect of a Kentucky Republican. Down-ballot Democrats tend to do a lot better in Kentucky than their presidential candidate. McConnell’s low approval ratings both at home and nationalwide, and a tough gubernatorial race for Republicans this year push him into Likely Republican. Media personality Matt Jones would probably make this race a spectacle.
Susan Collins (R-ME)
Many think Collins is more vulnerable than I do. After all, she voted for Kavanaugh and the GOP tax bill in blue-leaning Maine, and donors have already crowdfunded over $1 million to whoever her challenger is. While there’s no doubt she’s losing at least a little of her once-enviable cross-over appeal to Democrats, she still has a relatively moderate record, allowing McCain to kill the GOP healthcare bill. The big reason for me rating her so high is her 2014 re-election margin, a whopping 37 points! Congresswoman Chellie Pingree could push this race into more competitive categories.
Lean Republican
Joni Ernst (R-IA)
Last year, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds won re-election. Her margins were slim, but it was still very good news for Joni Ernst, who is, for all intents and purposes, a clone of Reynolds. So Democrats need to overperform themselves in 2020. They could find a good candidate, like one of their congresspeople from the state, but for now Ernst is a rather strong favorite.
David Perdue (R-GA)
Similar to Iowa, David Perdue is very similar to the governor Georgia just elected, Brain Kemp. So Democrats will need to outdo themselves here too. Lucky for them, Stacey Abrams has strengthened the Democrat’s coalition here, and I expect her to be in the fray again in 2020 supporting other candidates. So it’s possible a moderate Dem, like Stacey Evans, could win by harnessing Abram’s coalition and appeal to suburban moderates and rural ex-Democrats at the same time.
Doug Jones (D-AL)
Usually, I won’t rate an incumbent as an underdog this early on, but I’ll make an exception for Jones. Only winning by 2 points over Roy Moore, who had about 30 women accuse him of sexual assault, and said that America was best in the 1800’s, despite slavery and inferior technology, in 2017, the year before a blue wave. It’s hard to see how Jones can win again in 2020, especially given the GOP’s large lineup in the state to take him on, led by Mobile-area Congressman Bradley Byrne. From this perspective, the only thing going for Jones right now is that he is now an incumbent, and the pitfall of many election forecasters are underestimating incumbency.
Toss-Up
Thom Tillis (R-NC)
Democrats have several potential strong candidates to challenge Tillis, including Attorney General Josh Stein and former Charlotte Mayor and Obama cabinet member Anthony Foxx. Tillis only won by 1.5% in 2014, and has yet to consolidate support in the state, according to a Morning Consult poll. It’s a Toss-Up, despite Tillis being an incumbent in a Romney-Trump state.
Martha McSally (R-AZ)
Democrat Kyrsten Sinema was able to flip Arizona’s other Senate seat last year, which was open at the time. Martha McSally was appointed to this seat to fill the vacancy of late Sen. John McCain, She was never elected, so this seat could be treated as an open seat. Democrats have a long list of credible candidates as well, such as former Attorney General Grant Woods, astronaut Mark Kelly, and Reps. Ruben Gallego and Greg Stanton. These candidates may be able to duplicate Sinema’s success. It’s a Toss-Up.
Cory Gardner (R-CO)
Gardner, a conservative Republican in a state that elected Democrat Jared Polis governor by 10 points, is the most vulnerable Republican Senator, so much so that 5 minor Democrat candidates have already declared. Democrats (you guessed it) have many more credible candidates lined up, including former Gov. John Hickenlooper, Denver-area Rep. Ed Perlmutter, and so many more it’s silly to put them all here. Maybe Gardner can pull a Ron Johnson*, but he is in deep trouble.
Likely Democrat
Tina Smith (D-MN)
Minnesota is slowly drifting into the swing state category, after Clinton won it by only 2 points. Still, Tina Smith just won re-election by 10 points, seems popular, and a limited number of credible Republican candidates remain in Minnesota post 2018. One name to watch is former Republican governor Tim Pawlenty, he may make this race close.
Gary Peters (D-MI)
Gary Peter’s impressive 14-point in 2014, in a state Trump would go on to win 2 years later, is enough for me to say he’s likely to win re-election. However, John James got a little too close to unseating Sen. Debbie Stabenow for some accuracy-minded political forecasters. A race between James and Peters would be very interesting.
Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)
Jeanne Shaheen won re-election over Scott Brown in 2014, the best candidate Republicans probably could’ve hoped for. She should be all set in a presidential year with no major Republican candidate seeking out this race, especially given her 51% approval rating, according to a Morning Consult poll. Perhaps the only person who could beat her is former Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
Some Final Thoughts
In order to flip the Senate, Democrats need to move at least one seat into Toss-Up, and realistically, probably two, or have a Toss-Up/Leans seat move to Leans Democrat, for them to have a realistic shot. Based on these ratings, I’d expect no shift, or a Democrat gain of 1-2 seats. They need 3-4 to take control, so right now, the Senate Leans Republican. If the presidential race goes well for Democrats, or if they recruit good candidates, or the GOP bad, in a lot of the competitive or “watch list” races, the Senate may move to Toss-Up.
(1)https://tossupcentral.com/assessing-the-political-environment-for-2020/
*Pulling a Ron Johnson-the act of a senator winning re-election in an upset during a presidential year, partly due to better-than-expected performance by his or her party’s presidential candidate in the state. The term comes from Ron Johnson’s upset re-election in 2016 in Wisconsin, simultaneously while Trump was also winning the state unexpectedly.