This is the conclusion to my series on state legislatures.
New York Senate (40-22 D) and House (106-43 D): Safe D
The coalition of Republicans and moderate Democrats that allowed the Republican caucus to hold the New York Senate for many years is a distant memory after Democrats made smashing gains last year, as well as primarying many of those moderates. The bigger battle here will be if a progressive majority can be established. 9 Democrats joined forces with Republicans to kill a bill legalizing marijuana for recreational use. Those 9 may become primary targets.
North Carolina Senate (29-21 R) and House (55-45 R): Lean R and Likely R
Democrats would need to run the table of competitive races to take control, including several in lean-red districts, as they already flipped a lot of seats last year. Despite being a swing state, NC doesn’t have a lot of swing voters, nor do a lot of Southern states with African-Americans voting Democrat and protestant whites voting Republican. This challenge is lesser the Senate, given there are less races numerically. If the Supreme Court defers to the lower court, than new district lines would be drawn, eliminating the Republican gerrymander. If this happens, both chambers may become Toss-Ups, as NC is also pretty competitive on the presidential level, especially if the suburbs continue to trend blue and African-American turnout is high. Alternatively, if things go south for Democrats, Republicans could gain a seat in the Senate and 5 in the House, giving them a veto-proof majority against the Democrat governor Roy Cooper.
North Dakota Senate (37-10 R) and House (79-15 R): Safe R
(Surprised Pikachu face)
Ohio Senate (24-9 R) and House (61-38 R): Safe R
Ohio has been trending right, and Republicans have managed to erect huge legislative majorities in what was considered a bellwether state just 2 years ago. Even the blue wave last year did minimal damage.
Oklahoma Senate (39-9 R) and House (77-24 R): Safe R
As towering as the Republican’s majorities already are, they may yet grow even more, as there are still some Democrats, especially in the House, that hold extremely Trumpian seats.
Oregon Senate (18-11 D) and House (38-21 D): Safe D
It hasn’t been a good year for Oregon Republicans. First, legendary state senator Jackie Winters passed away last month. She was her own brand, which allowed her to consistently win big re-elections in a swingy Salem-based district. She was a great loss. Then, Senate Republicans made headlines a few days ago by not showing up to vote on the controversial “cap-and-invest” climate change bill, cancelling the vote. As I write this, their whereabouts are unknown, and the governor, Democrat Kate Brown, has taken a rather militaristic approach by authorizing police to arrest lawmakers who refuse to return. It’s a very chaotic and unpredictable situation. Either way, they weren’t going to flip either chamber anyway. It may look like they’re within reach in the Senate, but only half of the seats are up.
Pennsylvania Senate (28-22 R) and House (110-93 R): Lean R
In this state, both parties hold a good amount of seats the other party wins in presidential elections. It will come down to which party’s voters are more keen on split-ticket voting. On the presidential level, Democrats are optimistic they can pull of a substantial win in Pennsylvania. If this happens, it will become much easier for the party to pick up these two chambers. Giving Gov. Tom Wolf a trifecta in one of the nation’s largest and most influential states should be a priority for Democrats.
Rhode Island Senate (33-5 D) and House (66-9 D): Safe D
Amid tensions between the conservatives and moderates of the GOP caucus stemming from a third-party bid in the governor race last year, one of the most moderate Democrat-run governments in the country is expected to hold its towering majorities.
South Carolina Senate (27-19 R) and House (78-44 R): Safe R
Things are unlikely to change in South Carolina. No party had a net gain or loss last year in the House, and South Carolina, as I mentioned earlier, is politically rigid like many southern states.
South Dakota Senate (30-5 R) and House (59-11 R): Safe R
Much like the other South state, there isn’t much room for either party to grow here, and that’s good for Republicans.
Tennessee Senate (28-5 R) and House (73-26 R): Safe R
No offense to anyone reading from the Volunteer State, but Tennessee is such a snooze-fest politically. It has very few competitive legislative districts, no competitive congressional districts, and statewide, is solid Republican every time.
Texas Senate (19-12 R) and House (83-66 R): Safe R and Lean R
Beto O’Rourke won a majority of Texas state House districts. There is a very plausible path for the party if they have a great night in the suburbs, especially if Republicans continue to show no signs of moderacy and Democrats run competent campaigns. The Senate is a different story. Only half of the seats are up, most in either Safe Democrat or Safe Republican seats that are unlikely to flip.
Utah Senate (23-6 R) and House (59-16 R): Safe R
Utah is a heavily Mormon state, a demographic that votes Republican but isn’t to keen on Trump. Thus, Utah is one of the few remaining places where Republican anti-Trumpism is present. We’ll see if this has any impact on the Republican primaries.
Vermont Senate (22-6 D) and House (94-43 D): Safe D
Democrat’s main goal is to gain the 1 seat in the House they need to establish a veto-proof majority against Republican governor Phil Scott.
Washington Senate (28-20 D) and House (57-41 D): Safe D
There are plenty of moderate, suburban Republicans in blue-trending seats the Democrats could pick up to grow their majority. Democrats actually have pretty small majorities in Washington compared to how blue the state actually is.
West Virginia Senate (20-14 R) and House (59-41 R): Likely R
Basically every district in the whole state voted for Trump, many by a wide margin. Still, Democrats held this chamber for 80 years up until 2015, and the state still has an R-national, D-local voting tradition, electing Democrat Joe Manchin to the Senate last year. Given Republicans relatively small majorities, I won’t totally write off Democrats here.
Wisconsin Senate (19-14 R) and House (63-36 R): Safe R and Likely R
Wisconsin has kind of a weird situation going on. The Senate has a narrow Republican majority, but many of the seats up in 2020 are actually vulnerable Democrats in Obama-Trump districts. In the House, there are enough slightly vulnerable Republicans for there to be a narrow path for Democrat control of the chamber. What’s even weirder is that Wisconsin is perhaps the closest state on the presidential level. This is due to a combination of gerrymandering and a strong state party.
Wyoming Senate (27-3 R) and House (50-9 R): Safe R
What’s really a Toss-Up is this question: What is more likely to happen? The Baltimore Orioles winning the world series or Democrats taking control of the Wyoming Legislature. Follow my twitter @bad_senator and answer the poll to share your response.
A few takes after all this:
- Democrats have more room to grow than Republicans. Republicans have 5 chambers they have a good shot of flipping, while Democrats have 11.
- Democrats are generally expected to do better in state Houses than state Senates.
- Democrats probably won’t gain control of the majority of legislative chambers.
Here are the state-by-state maps of the ratings:
I hope you had as much a good time reading these articles as I did making them.
P.S. Here are the other two parts:
Part 1: https://tossupcentral.com/2018-state-legislative-election-ratings-part-1/
Part 2: https://tossupcentral.com/2020-state-legislative-election-ratings-part-2/