I’ve made two rating changes since my last governor update, both favoring Democrats.
I’ve moved the Montana governor race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, on account of Greg Gianforte, the journalist body-slamming congressman, running for Governor. While dark-blue on the presidential level, Montana is a much lighter shade of red down the ballot. It has a Democrat governor and one Democrat senator. If Gianforte is the nominee, the split-ticket voting will only increase as more typically Republican voters won’t take kindly to Gianforte’s antics. He only won his house race by 4 points last year as well. A race with Gianforte would be Toss-Up as best for him. If the alternative candidate, A.G. Tim Fox, is the Republican candidate, it’s a different story. He’s the candidate the Republican establishment wants for the race, and I’d put a race with Fox as Lean R. So far, the only major Democrat to declare is state House minority leader Casey Schreiner, who seems pretty solid. More could join in, however, as time goes on.
I’ve moved the Missouri race from Safe R to Likely R, on account of state auditor Nicole Galloway, a Democrat, entering the race. She won re-election last year even as then-incumbent Democrat senator Claire McCaskill lost by 6 points in a state that has become almost as red as Montana. The current governor, Republican Mike Parson, was elevated to the governorship after disgraced former Governor Eric Greitens resigned. He’s making a good impression with all kinds of voters in the state. I expected him to clean clocks in his re-election bid, but with Galloway looming in the race, a move to Likely R seems right. I will say that Galloway isn’t off to a good start, as she seems confrontational to Parson as has made it clear she’s pro-choice, not a good move in conservative Missouri.
Now let’s look at how the 2019 races are shaping up:
Louisiana: Lean Democrat
Republicans are worried about their fading chances in Louisiana. Their main candidate, Ralph Abraham, isn’t the best candidate, and is still a no-name to a lot of the state’s voters. Internal polls on both sides show red flags for Abraham. Additionally, Democrat John Bel Edwards signed a heartbeat abortion bill, which probably improved his chances in conservative Louisiana. The GOP’s best chance in this race likely involves bringing Trump in to unite his base behind Abraham.
Kentucky: Toss-Up
Andy Beshear has won the Democratic nomination in Kentucky. Not much has happened that would cause me to move the race out of Toss-Up at this time.
Mississippi: Lean Republican
I’m beginning to think the governor race in Mississippi hinges on a lawsuit against a specific provision in the state. This provision states that if a candidate doesn’t win a majority of the vote and a majority of state House seats, the state House (controlled by the GOP) will decide the next governor. If you put a gun to my head, I’d say Democrat Jim Hood is a slight favorite to win the popular vote, but Republican Tate Reeves is a favorite to win the state House districts. If this provision is ruled unconstitutional, the race instantly becomes Toss-Up, as the next governor would be decided by popular vote alone.
All Eyes on Joe Manchin
There have been rumors that Democrat Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a well-known centrist who even voted for Kavanaugh, is tired of life in Washington and wants out, perhaps by running for governor in 2020. His decision has major implications. The West Virginia governor race would immediately become a Toss-Up, and his Senate seat would likely flip Republican by 2023, given West Virginia is one of Trump’s best states, providing Republicans further insulation for their Senate majority. If Manchin ran, it would make West Virginia’s race the marquee Governor race of 2020, running against party-switching, controversial governor Jim Justice. It would be the most epic gubernatorial battle since the midterms.
Stay tuned this weekend for an update on the Democrat primary post-debate.