Super Tuesday: A Timeline

After poor showings in South Carolina, Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar have all dropped out. The latter two will endorse Joe Biden in Dallas tonight. The dream scenario has played out for anti-Bernie Democrats. Most of the moderate vote will consolidate behind one candidate headed into Super Tuesday. Biden is salivating, having two major candidates drop out, then immediately endorse him hours before Super Tuesday will give him a supercharged boost. I’ve been very cautious so far about throwing around the term “contested convention”, because I had a feeling that the moderates would consolidate behind a candidate or two after Super Tuesday. If there are only three candidates in the race that have more than 100 delegates (assuming Warren loses Massachusetts and drops out), then one of them would just have to do a little bit better and another a little worse for that person to win the nomination on the first ballot. And right now, Michael Bloomberg is trending down. More on that in a bit. If only two candidates, say, Biden and Sanders, survive past Super Tuesday, forget a contested convention, it will be nothing short of a slugfest for an outright nomination!

There are four candidates still in the race. Wait, what, Gabbard is still in? Buttigieg and Klobuchar have dropped but not Gabbard? Meh, who cares. She’s barely registering in national polls. Anyway, what was I saying? Oh right, 4 candidates are still in the race: Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

Tomorrow is the most important day in politics between now and November 3rd. 14 states will vote. Over a third of the total delegates come from states voting on Super Tuesday, which include large states like California, Texas, and North Carolina. It’s hard to overstate how important this Super Tuesday will be. Let’s look at it through a timeline.

7PM: Vermont (16 Delegates) and Virginia (99 Delegates)

News networks will swiftly project Sanders the winner in Vermont. He’s extremely popular there, getting 86% of the vote last time. He’ll likely get all 16 delegates. Safe Sanders.

I’m going to say Virginia Leans Biden. Virginia is at the nexus of 3-4 U.S. regions depending on your count, these being the Northeast (DC suburbs), The Mid-Atlantic (The Coast), Appalachia (East Virginia), and the South (the rest of the state). His 30-point landslide victory in South Carolina shows his support is powerful in the South. He’ll also do well in Northern Virginia. The White House is less than 2 miles away from the Virginia state line, and this part of the country has a history of voting for “establishment” candidates, like Biden. I expect Sanders to do better in Appalachia, as its Democrats are more working-class and progressive. Sanders killed it in neighboring West Virginia in 2016. This leaves the coastal areas.

It’s clear that being on the debate stage hurt Bloomberg. His two debate performances so far were almost universally disliked. Up to that point, Bloomberg’s strategy was to inundate commercial breaks with messages. But when he came out in front of an American audience, with no script and no heavily-edited ads to hide behind, he failed to respond to attacks or make compelling statements, and America soured on the “up and coming” candidate. Also, Tom Steyer, another billionaire who tried to use advertisements to generate support in South Carolina (where Bloomberg wasn’t on the ballot), failed to get a single delegate, and subsequently dropped out. It’s clear you can’t just buy presidential elections anymore. The coastal areas, which are affluent and older on average, were supposed to be Bloomberg’s strongest area in Virginia. But now that he’s taken a hit, this will instead be the region that allows Biden to win the state.

7:30-8:30 PM: The South

For the purposes of this article, I’m considering North Carolina (110 Delegates), Tennessee (64 Delegates), Alabama (52 Delegates), Arkansas (31 Delegates), and Oklahoma (37 Delegates), to be part of “The South”. The South will give out a whopping 294 delegates on Super Tuesday. North Carolina polling has shown a narrow Sanders lead, perhaps expected given his expected strength in The Smoky Mountains and the progressive Research Triangle area, but Biden’s win in neighboring South Carolina will put him over the top. If Sanders sweeps the three largest Super Tuesday states, Texas, California, and North Carolina, he’s well on his way to nomination.

After seeing how well Biden did in South Carolina, I think he’ll sweep the south. Some of Bloomberg’s former supporters will go back to Biden, especially African-Americans, allowing him to beat Sanders. Oklahoma, a state ignored by other campaigns that, like Virginia, is on the cusp of two regions (The South and The Great Plains) and has a whiter electorate, seems like Bloomberg’s best bet, but I’d still expect a Biden win there. Don’t forget the boost he’ll get after joining forces with Buttigieg and Biden.

Alabama seems like Biden’s safest state, and I expect he’ll get a minimum of 35 out of 52 delegates, with Sanders and Bloomberg scrambling for the rest in North Alabama and the Black Belt respectively. Tennessee is more suburban and Appalachian. The former is good for Bloomberg, the latter good for Sanders. Biden will still win though. Same thing for North Carolina. A local source tells me “I’ll be surprised if it’s not Biden.” that wins Arkansas. Oklahoma will be the most Sanders and Bloomberg friendly, (Sanders won there in 2016).

I expect Biden to get 150-175 delegates from the South on Super Tuesday. If Bloomberg wants to remain in the race, he needs to win at least one state, probably more. Sanders should try to get to the 15% threshold in all Southern states. If you haven’t picked up on this already, I’m expecting it to come down to Biden vs. Sanders, so he’ll need to make some inroads in the South if he wants to win that fight.

8PM: New England

Two more New England states, Massachusetts (91 delegates) and Maine (24 delegates) will close polls at 8 o’clock. I predict Sanders will win both. Recent polling in the Bay State shows a slim Sanders lead. Elizabeth Warren just hasn’t been able to really challenge Sanders so far, she came in 5th in South Carolina, and isn’t as popular as a Democrat should be in Massachusetts. Her home-field advantage won’t be enough. But at least Warren will get delegates from Massachusetts, more than she can say for a lot of states. Many candidates drop out after losing their home states, so watch Warren in Massachusetts and Klobuchar in Minnesota. If she does pull the upset and stay in the race, it may prevent Sanders from consolidating the progressive base, ensuring a contested convention.

Maine is a much more rural, less affluent state than Massachusetts. Sanders seems more dominant here, and has led in a recent poll here by 9 points.

Watch to see if Bloomberg can be viable anywhere in New England.

9PM: The Real Battlegrounds

Klobuchar’s decision to jump ship perplexed me. It seemed like she was the favorite to win her home state of Minnesota, which could’ve given her a leg up and drawn former Buttigieg supporters to her campaign. Alas, we’ll never know. The question is whether Minnesota will listen to their Senator and vote for Biden, or if they will vote like many neighboring states are expected to and vote Sanders, like it did last time. I think they’ll go with Biden. Many Minnesotans were excited t vote Klobuchar tomorrow, and her dropping out is shocking news to them. They won’t really have time to think about who their 2nd choice really is, so they’ll do what Klobuchar says and vote Biden. It will be a very close contest for the state’s 75 delegates.

Texas (228 Delegates) is be the marquee contest. While California has more delegates, most of its vote won’t be counted until after midnight, and Bernie Sanders is expected to win. Texas is a Toss-Up, because it’s squished between the South, where Biden will do well, and the Great Plains and the West, where Sanders will do well. But, once again, I think Biden will win. Buttigieg and Klobuchar will be endorsing Biden at a mega-rally in Dallas, so he’ll get an even bigger boost here that will put him over the top. If Bernie is to win the state, look for big Sanders margins in El Paso, Travis, and Bexar counties, as well as counties in west Texas, where he has barnstormed. Similarly, Biden’s looking for wins in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and Eastern Texas. If Blomberg is to win or at least get statewide delegates, winning counties in Central Texas or Harris County (Houston) would be a start.

Bernie has consistently polled well in Colorado (67 delegates). It’s the kind of progressive, working class state you’d expect to be keen on Sanders, so I don’t see why he wouldn’t be the favorite there.

10PM: Utah (29 Delegate)

Bernie Sanders did well here in 2016, and has polled miles ahead of Biden. The only thing that gives me pause is Harry Reid’s endorsement of Joe Biden. One of the first things you think when you hear “Utah” is Mormonism. Harry Reid has the distinction of holding the highest office out of any Mormon in the U.S, so he has sway in Utah Democratic politics. But I doubt Harry Reid’s endorsement alone is enough to bring Joe Biden all the way to the top. Expect Bloomberg to also get in on the delegates in this largely ignored state.

11PM: California (415 Delegates)

For the first time in a long time, the Union’s largest state actually matters in a presidential election.

Like I said earlier, Bernie Sanders is expected to win California. It has a lot of progressive voters in LA and the Bay Area, economically impoverished areas, and a high Latino vote in the Central Valley. But in a state as large as California, margins matter. If Bernie gets 40% of the vote or Biden doesn’t get to 15%, for example, he could build a delegate lead from California alone that would be insurmountable. Watch Warren, she could get a lot of delegates here thanks to Bay Area progressives. If she wins Massachusetts and gets a lot of California delegates, she would have reason to stay in the race and continue to be an annoying parasite that takes some of the progressive vote from Sanders. It’s important for Bloomberg to try to get to 15% if he wants to stay in the race as well. Watch to see if he gets at or near 20% in Orange and San Diego counties.

In conclusion, I believe Sanders will come out of Super Tuesday with a small delegate lead, with Biden close behind. A big gap will separate Bloomberg from Biden, and then another big gap between Bloomberg and Warren. Gabbard will drop out. As much as it pains me to say it, my streak of predicting popular vote winners in elections probably ends tomorrow, as many upsets are possible. I’d be surprised if only Biden and Sanders won states, there is room for a Bloomberg upset in smaller, closer states like Oklahoma, Utah, and Minnesota. Warren could obviously win her home state of Massachusetts. Could Biden come out with a small delegate lead? Yes, especially if Bloomberg underperforms. Could Sanders come out with a very large delegate lead? Also yes. Tomorrow is going to be a heck of a day, that will leave me still sorting things out when the next contests happen next Tuesday. Follow Toss-Up Central’s Twitter account: https://twitter.com/home, for timely projections and analysis as the vote rolls in tomorrow.

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