Let’s just talk about the aftermath of Super Tuesday for a little bit. Before South Carolina voted, but after getting 4th and 5th in Iowa and New Hampshire, many though it would be Joe Biden that would be behind in delegates after Super Tuesday, fighting for survival against Bernie Sanders. But after a landslide victory in South Carolina and endorsements by three former candidates: Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Beto, a deluge of positive free media boosted Biden all over the country, but especially in the Southeast. Bernie Sanders saw his fortunes fall like the first drop on a Hershey Park roller coaster. Instead, it is he that is behind in delegates. While votes are still being counted and finalized, current delegate estimates (according to the Twitter account 2020 Delegates) show Joe Biden leading Sanders in delegates 699-614, an 85 delegate lead. (You need 1,991 to win). Almost never in an election has the level of support national-wide of a candidate changed so much in 100 hours. All of the twists and turns of this cycle have been leading us in a circle. Biden and Sanders, who were candidates 1 and 2 in polling for much of last year, are candidates 1 and 2 right now.
Perhaps the worst news for Sanders is the news he didn’t get: Elizabeth Warren’s endorsement. It was widely expected that the progressive wing of the party would quickly unite behind one candidate when the other dropped out. Warren’s silence is deafening. It shows that Sanders has limited appeal among Warren’s base, which is affluent, college-educated progressives. This will present obstacles for Sanders going forward.
Bernie Sanders’ saving grace was California. He’ll eek out a win in the most delegate-rich state, hopefully keeping his delegate deficit to less than triple digits. It’s these delegate-rich, urban, populist or progressive states that Sanders will have to win if he has any chance of keeping Biden from getting nominated on the first ballot. He must flip the script, and play Joe Biden for a fool. With that in mind, let’s look ahead to tomorrow, Super Tuesday II, when 6 states will be voting.
8PM: The “M” States
At 8 PM, polls will close in all of Missouri (68 Delegates), Mississippi (36 Delegates), and in most of Michigan (125 Delegates).
In Mississippi, the question is not whether Bernie Sanders will win the state, rather, it is if he can win any delegates. It has the highest African-American population of any state. The one poll here shows Biden leading Sanders 77% to 22%.
Sanders has a better chance in Missouri, a state he came very close to winning in 2016. However, in the nearby states of Oklahoma, Iowa, and Minnesota, Bernie Sanders’ support in rural areas has plummeted since 2016. These rural Democrats view Joe Biden much more favorably than they viewed Hillary Clinton, and now sour on Sanders, who has moved further left in the last four years. Rural areas are a big part of Missouri’s electorate. With the Kansas City moderates and the African-Americans in Saint Louis united behind Biden, it’s likely Biden will win this state as well. Polling here shows Biden up by about 19 points.
Michigan, with its 125 delegates, will be the race to watch tonight, as both campaigns are contesting this state. Sanders is hoping for an upset here again, like in 2016. A win here would breathe new life into the Sanders campaign, giving him a real shot in states like Ohio and Illinois, and by extension the nomination. While that could happen, I’d have to go with Biden to win the state. It’s rural areas are similar to those of Minnesota, where Biden beat Sanders, with the help of Amy Klobuchar. While that endorsement isn’t as recent or significant in Michigan, Biden also will have bases of support in Flint, Detroit, Kalamazoo, and Saginaw, cities in southern Michigan with large African-American populations, and in Grand Rapids, where a lot of Trump-skeptic ex-Republicans will crossover to support Biden. Sanders’s base of support will probably be the progressive college town of Ann Arbor. If Sanders wants his upset, he needs to win in the other Detroit suburbs, as well as in the populist-leaning rural areas. Polling here shows Biden up by a little more than 20 points.
9PM: North Dakota (14 Delegates)
Unfortunately, the North Dakota Democratic Party has stated results may not be available until Wednesday. I put this state under 9PM because that’s when polls close, but expect to be waiting a long time for complete results from this little state.
Both candidates have a good shot in North Dakota, as the state is stuck in between the Midwest, where Sanders has done poorly, and the West-West, where Sanders has done great. I’ll pick Sanders to win though, as he may do well enough in Fargo and Grand Forks, cities similar to Sioux City and Council Bluffs, where he won big in Iowa, to win statewide.
11PM: Idaho (20 Delegates) and Washington (89 Delegates)
After another poor performance early on in the night, when most on the East Coast will be in their beds, Sanders will finish the night strong in the West. Colorado and Utah were some of his strongest states on Super Tuesday outside of Vermont, and also some of Biden’s weakest. He got 78% of the vote in the Idaho Primary in 2016. I predict Sanders will win it again, certainly not with 78%, but a win. I also think he’s favored to carry neighboring Washington state, another state he got north of 70% last time. The white progressives in and around Seattle will boost him further. Polling here shows a slight Biden lead, but it is within the margin of error. Those polls were also taken shortly after Super Tuesday, during the media’s “Biden honeymoon” period, which has died down a bit since then with coronavirus taking over the headlines.
Despite a strong finish for Sanders, a weaker start to the night in the more delegate-heavy states will widen his delegate deficit to over 100, if it’s not there already. That is unless he carries Michigan. The only way I can see Bernie getting a majority of delegates is if he is winning in the Midwest. That starts with Michigan tomorrow night, Ohio and Illinois in 8 days, and Wisconsin on April 7th. If he can win those four contests, he may yet still have a chance going into the northeastern primaries on April 28th, the last big day for getting delegates. Either way, the mainstream media’s current obsession with Biden must end for Sanders to win. Maybe something that comes from Biden’s mouth, not Sanders’s, can do that. Or, maybe Biden can win this race by the end of the month by sweeping the contests tomorrow, or only allowing a Sanders victory in one. It’s easy to see Biden’s trendline still being upward, after Bloomberg dropped out. There is also less early vote from February (when he was behind) in these contests than in Super Tuesday. But this is just one scenario, I think the most likely one is that Sanders will win 3 states tomorrow night.
