There are 30 congressional districts represented by Democrats where Donald Trump won more votes than Hillary Clinton. There are only 6 Republican-held districts where Clinton prevailed. In theory, Republicans have more room to grow in the U.S. House. Let’s take a closer look.
Where Biden Will Flip Democrat-Held Congressional Districts
A lot of the congressional districts that Democrats flipped in 2016/2018 Trump only won narrowly. A good example of this is GA-6, a fast-growing, well-off area. A majority of the residents have put themselves through college. A majority-white area in the South, it is historically conservative, giving John McCain and Mitt Romney 61% of the vote. Trump changed everything, people found him repulsive and divisive. Trump prioritizes making people who already support him happy as opposed to swing voters who aren’t in a partisan bubble. He only won the district by 1%. As House Republicans began coalescing around Trump, Democrat Lucy McBath flipped the district in 2018 from Republican Karen Handel.
This is an area where certain mainstream Democratic policies, like gun regulation, health coverage for those with pre-existing conditions, and racial justice, resonate in the age of a Republican party that doesn’t give off a compassionate aura. Joe Biden is likely to carry GA-6, making it harder for Handel to win back the seat.
This isn’t just happening in Georgia, it’s happening all over the country in upper-class, more college-educated areas. Events like the murder of George Floyd has generated a wave of compassion in suburbia for less fortunate people. Most suburbs are becoming less white, making them more Democratic friendly. Their lifestyle and economy been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing their discontent with the incumbent.
What Congressional Districts Contain These Voters?
More Trump-won Democrat held congressional districts that could flip in 2020 are in New Jersey (Districts 3, 5, and 11), the NYC metro (Districts 11 and 18), New Hampshire (District 1), Iowa (District 3), Oakland County Michigan (District 11), Outer Chicagoland (IL-14), suburbs south of Minneapolis (MN-2), Las Vegas (NV-3), Northwest Arizona (AZ-1), Southwest Pennsylvania (District 17), and the Virginia Tidewater (Districts 2 and to a lesser extent 7).
Rust belt swing districts like IL-17, WI-3, IA-1 and IA-3 could flip Biden under the right circumstances.
Polling at this point suggests Biden’s improvement over Clinton likely will not be enough to flip more red congressional districts like the Democrat-held MI-8, OK-5, SC-1, or even PA-8, which includes Scranton, Biden’s hometown. Still, Biden will likely reduce Trump’s margins in all of these places, leaving the incumbent Democrats with less of a deficit to make up. Overall, I expect Biden to flip between 7 and 15 Dem-held districts.
The Fundamentals Of The House This Year Once Again Favor Democrats
A wave of activism after Trump’s election caused the Democrat’s fundraising and candidate recruitment to be superior to Republican’s. Today’s Republican party is one where the right-wing candidate that usually can’t connect with swing voters usually wins the primary. Republicans are less likely to make the most of good opportunities.
It’s possible Democratic incumbents will have a strong incumbency advantage this year. The spotlight is on Joe Biden. He will be forced to discuss the nation’s more hot-button issues. If an incumbent keeps their head down, focuses on less divisive topics that most Americans agree on, such as taking better care of veterans or making better jobs available, then naturally more people will be open to voting for them than Joe Biden. In theory, Republican incumbents could use this method to their advantage, but as Republicans, they’d be more likely to be forced by a strong Democratic challenger to answer for Trump and his antics.
Shaky Ground In Republican Territory
Affluent Suburbs
Republican-held congressional districts that are at risk of flipping because of a Biden win are in Texas (Districts 10, 21, 22 and 24), districts that were won or almost won by Beto O’Rourke, Long Island (NY-1 and NY-2), districts that Andrew Cuomo won in 2018, Florida (Districts 15, 16, and 25), Northwest Atlanta suburbs (GA-7), Phoenix (AZ-6), and in mid-size Midwestern cities like Omaha (NE-2) and Cincinnati (OH-1), sites of botched Democratic efforts in 2018. Unless Biden significantly improves his polling numbers, he’s unlikely to flip the Republican-held MO-2, PA-10, IN-5, NC-8, TX-2, TX-3, TX-6, or VA-5. But he will likely reduce Trump’s margin, making it easier for Democrats down ballot.
Rural Areas/Senior Citizens
Polls also show good signs for Democrats in Montana and Alaska. These are two rural, out-of-the-way states that haven’t yet adopted conservatism to the level of other rural areas. They both still heavily lean red, so they’ll likely vote Trump again, but by a reduced margin. There are also signs that Biden is winning over senior citizens. This is the age group most at risk from COVID-19, and they may find the 77-year old Biden personally appealing. This is bad for Trump in states like Arizona and Florida.
It’s not a question of if Trump can improve in these kinds of districts. It’s a question of how much he’ll regress from 2016. Despite the case I’ve made so far for a Biden improvement in the suburbs, I generally think that as more people pay attention to the election, people will find Biden doesn’t have the charisma or campaign skills the local Democratic candidate had in 2018. People might find offense in his more unpopular positions, such as increasing regulations on small businesses to fight climate change, and wanting to subsidize health insurance for undocumented/illegal immigrants. In most cases, Trump will be more of a presence than the local Republican in 2018. This could bring back some more culturally conservative voters. I expect Trump to perform better than 2018 Republicans as a general matter.
Trump’s Small Upside
Hispanics
There is evidence that Biden is doing worse than Clinton among Hispanic/Latinx voters. This demographic has some socially conservative leanings. For some who went through the long process of immigrating and becoming American “the right way”, Trump’s effort against illegal immigration resonates. Immigrants from countries like Cuba or Venezuela that left after socialist leaders came to power may be more comfortable voting for the party that dismisses socialism, the GOP. There are higher rates of Catholicism among Hispanics, and Catholics tend to be pro-life. A Hispanic shift will give House Republicans an easier time in places like SoCal (Districts 21 and 25) and New Mexico (District 2), and it might even counter some of the leftward trend in Texas and Florida (especially Districts 25-27). However ,a lot of districts that are heavily Hispanic are too blue for the GOP to have a chance.
The Working Class
Another group Trump could make up ground is among certain working-class voters whose industries would be harmed by Biden’s environmental regulation and who are already trending right. A major sticking point of Trump’s campaign is his lifting of business regulations. It could be said that we must make economical sacrifices in the present to save our future. That might not be a sacrifice people like the Pennsylvania steelworker or the Michigan auto manufacturer are willing to make. In the booming pre-COVID economy, these types of industries were experiencing a bit of a recovery after decades of decline, which people may attribute to Trump. Don’t take my word for it, take it for the word of 6 mayors in traditionally Democratic northeast Minnesota, known as the “Iron Range”, that endorsed Trump.
The Congressional Districts
Trump could expand his margin in a lot of the purple districts on the last map. It’s also possible he improves in some of the lighter blue rural districts along the Mississippi River, the New England area, or the Desert southwest. The district most likely to flip from Biden to Trump is Oregon’s 4th. It has a large timber industry, an industry under attack from Democrats. It’s in Oregon, a liberal state that has been ground zero for social unrest after George Floyd’s murder. Hillary Clinton won it by one tenth of a percentage point in 2016. Other districts Trump could flip are NH-2, NY-24, CA-48, OH-6, and MI-5.
However, working-class voters are hardly a monolith. Biden’s economic plan would impact each industry differently. Some who work in industries like construction or retail farming unlikely to cause climate change may find Biden’s economic recovery plan and pro-union, anti-corporate greed stance appealing. Trump could improve among coal miners, but falter among soybean farmers who have lost markets from Chinese tariffs. Trump could win over the New York small business owner burdened by the state’s overregulation, but lose the business’ night shift worker.
The areas Trump could improve in, places appalled by what could happen if Democrats win, are by nature already either red. Trump could improve in some inner cities because Democrats have probably reached their high water mark there, but it’s not like Republicans are going to flip any districts places like Los Angeles, for example. This is why the list of districts Trump could flip is a lot smaller than Biden’s.
In theory, Republicans have more room to grow in the House this cycle, but not in practice.
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