The Electoral Map Shifts: Biden Likely To Win, The Senate Is A Toss-Up

Last week on this website, I said that I would be surprised if Trump wins re-election. Polls just keep getting worse for him, worse than they ever were in 2016 when he won by winning three crucial Rust Belt states by less than one percentage point over Clinton. Polls show a majority of Americans agree Trump dropped the ball in his response to COVID-19 and has made race relations worse. Trump is becoming increasingly reliant on his decreasingly potent base. COVID-19 deaths are increasing in many places, making a post-COVID economic comeback unlikely before a vaccine. Trump has little to campaign on that would resonate with Americans that don’t already support him or have a traditionalist worldview. With this in mind, the presidential race moves from Lean to Likely Biden. Almost everything has to fall into place right for Trump to win a second term. But I also predict the actual November results will be a little better for Trump then the polls wo0uld suggest right now, given the usual pro-Democrat polling bias at this point in the race and Joe Biden’s shortcomings as a presidential candidate.

Electoral College Ratings Changes

State(Electoral Votes)	Old Rating	New Rating
Florida(29)	Toss-Up	Lean Biden
Kansas(6)	Safe Trump	Likely Trump
Maine(2)	Lean Biden	Likely Biden
Michigan(16)	Lean Biden	Likely Biden
Minnesota(10)	Lean Biden	Likely Biden
Montana(3)	Safe Trump	Likely Trump
New Hampshire(4)	Toss-Up	Lean Biden
Pennsylvania(20)	Lean Biden	Likely Biden
South Carolina(9)	Safe Trump	Likely Trump
Wisconsin(10)	Toss-Up	Lean Biden

With this presidential race at Likely Biden, Biden will likely improve upon Hillary Clinton with nearly every demographic. Minnesota and Maine, two states Clinton won, move from Lean to Likely Biden. Michigan and Pennsylvania also move from Lean to Likely Biden. Michigan and Pennsylvania are 2020’s bellwether states. If Trump wins one of them, he’s favored to win re-election. If he wins both, his re-election is a pretty sure bet. By that logic, if Trump is unlikely to win, then that means Biden should be likely to win both of these states.

I feel it is time to move enough states out of Toss-Up such that Biden will have more than 270 electoral votes even if he loses all of the Toss-Ups. The 538 polling averages show Biden leading by 7 points or more in New Hampshire, Florida, and Wisconsin. These leads are almost outside the margin of error.

New Hampshire voted for Clinton by less than 3,000 votes. It has a lot of independently-minded and college-educated voters. I had it in Toss-Up up until this point because Biden did so poorly in the New Hampshire primary, but given all that’s changed since February, I don’t think Biden’s poor primary performance matters that much anymore.

Florida, a hot spot for COVID-19, has a lot of older and retired voters. It’s been documented that Biden has a unique appeal with those voters. A lot of Florida’s population lives in metropolitan or urban areas, such as Jacksonville, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, Orlando, Tallahassee, the list goes on. Metro areas are more susceptible to voting Democrat. As a semi-Southern state, racism is a little more prevalent here than elsewhere. But actual racist voters are a minority, and people are more likely to react to the racism and inequality around them at the ballot box, which at this point in the campaign is good for Biden.

Wisconsin is adjacent to Minnesota and Michigan, two Likely Biden states. Wisconsin is often grouped in with these states along with Pennsylvania as being “rust belt” states, with a lot of blue-collar workers that work hard and thanklessly to manufacture goods for the country’s consumption. Wisconsin is a little less diverse and more rural than these states, so naturally it will be a little more Republican. It’s rural voters in some rural places lean progressive, so it probably doesn’t make sense to leave Wisconsin in Toss-Up while MI, PA, and MN are in Likely Biden.

Florida, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin move from Toss-Up to Lean Biden.

In the last article, I say there is small possibility that if Trump doesn’t run a good campaign and conditions in this country don’t improve by November, things could only get worse for Trump from where they already are instead of improving. The environment by November 2020 could be even worse for the GOP than in November 2018. With that in mind, you have to look at states where center-left Democrats like Biden won in 2018 against Trumpian, conservative opponents. Democrats won the Kansas governor election by 5 points and the Montana Senate election by 3 1/2, holding the Republicans in those races to 43% and 47% respectively. Kansas and Montana move from Safe to Likely Trump, despite both being won by Trump by 21 points in 2016. These states are a big stretch for Biden, but if Trump really tanks, they could be in play.

So could South Carolina, which also moves from Safe to Likely Trump. South Carolina has always been the state that seems to be just out of reach for Democrats each cycle. It has had several close federal and gubernatorial races, but all of them this century have resulted in Republican victories. But just maybe this year will be different. If Biden can produce high black turnout nationally and in this 28% black state, and if he can improve significantly on Clinton’s margins in Charleston, Myrtle Beach, and the Greenville-Spartanburg area, this state could be within Biden’s grasp.

So yeah, this new Electoral map looks pretty bad for Trump. If Biden loses all of the Toss-Ups, he still wins 307 Electoral votes to 231. But Trump fans beware, it could get a lot worse. For one, I’m giving Trump a small chance for an upset in the several states I have as Likely Biden. This is in case Trump bounces back into contention before November. Perhaps late-breaking scandals and/or gaffes involving Biden, Biden trying to energize the Democratic base and thus appearing too liberal, a couple of good debates/speeches for Trump, and/or the distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine by November could do this. Due to the pandemic, voting by mail will be available to many more Americans, as in-person voting might be limited. This will skew turnout, so maybe the polls will be even more wrong this time. If I move the presidential race back to Lean Biden or Toss-Up, it would probably just serve to undo today’s ratings changes. But if polls continue to be as favorable for Biden as they are now, these Likely states quickly become Safe Biden.

These ratings reflect my expectations if things get a little better for Trump between now and Election Day. It’s a risky gambit, and I accept I might be in the wrong. If things stay this bad for Trump from now until Election Day, then big Lean Trump states like Ohio, Georgia, and Texas become Toss-Ups. If things get worse for Trump, Toss-Ups become Lean Biden, and states that quite frankly shouldn’t be competitive, the Likely Trump states, become Lean Trump or, just maybe, Toss-Up.

The Senate: The Real Battle

With the House locked up for Democrats and the Presidency looking better and better for Biden, it looks like the battle for the U.S. Senate will be in the spotlight on Election Night. The changing conditions warrant three Senate Ratings Changes.

State (Incumbent, Party)	Old Rating	New Rating
Georgia (Perdue, R)	Likely R	Lean R
Montana (Daines, R)	Lean R	Toss-Up
South Carolina (Graham, R)	Safe R	Likely R

South Carolina moving from Safe to Likely Republican is partially a result of a strong Democratic candidate. Jaime Harrison has raised dizzying amounts of money against Lindsey Graham, who seems to flip between being pro- and anti-Trump every few weeks. Local political operatives call him the best Democratic candidate in South Carolina in decades. Harrison went from growing up in “grinding poverty” to becoming chair of the state Democratic party from 2013 to 2017, and he campaigns on helping make government work for people in or near poverty. If South Carolina is only Likely R on the presidential level, it should be Likely R on the Senatorial level, as Harrison should run a point or two ahead of Biden.

I decided to move Georgia’s regular Senate election from Likely to Lean Republican, matching the presidential rating. Democrat Jon Ossoff outraised incumbent Republican David Perdue, a definite Trump ally. Polls in this race are tightening, and local and national observers note that Ossoff’s campaign skills have improved from his failed special election campaign in 2017. He seemed guarded and robotic then, but he strikes a much more compelling tone this time, promising a “new America” that would come about if he wins and Democrats flip the Senate, an America that gives everyone a fair shot. I still have doubts as to if he can increase black turnout, but other Democrats here like Stacey Abrams and Raphael Warnock probably have him covered on that front. He is just as likely to underperform Biden as he is to outperform him.

The final ratings change comes out of ruby-red Montana, witch moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up. Now three seats, North Carolina, Maine, and now Montana, the “Big 3”, all GOP held, lie in Toss-Up. Assuming Biden wins, the party that wins the most Toss-Ups wins the Senate. The Senate itself moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.

Why am I more confident in Democrat’s ability to flip Montana as opposed to less blue states like Iowa? It’s because the Democratic candidate, Steve Bullock, is also the state’s current governor, which is a unique, lasting strength. He has won statewide elections thrice. Montana has been spared the worst of COVID, reporting 4,000 cases and just 61 deaths. This has resulted in Bullock maintaining high approval ratings, reaching 70% for his coronavirus response back in May. As Governor, Bullock gets a lot of free press during this crisis. Response to disasters have often made or broken campaigns. Polls show this race is a statistical tie. Montana has a history of electing Democrats down-ballot, they re-elected center-left Senator Jon Tester in 2018 by 3 1/2 points. For his part, incumbent Republican Steve Daines isn’t going quietly into the night, barely outraising Bullock with $13 million, huge money for a lightly-populated state. Daines will do his best to cast Bullock as a career population out of touch with Montana’s libertarian, small government values who has infringed on the 2nd Amendment, while Bullock will argue his mild progressive streak has and would continue to help most Montanans lead better lives. All signs indicate that this is a Toss-Up race.

Two States Swap Governor Ratings

Missouri’s governor race moves from Likely to Lean Republican. Missouri was recently added to the White House coronavirus’ task force’s “red zone”. Incumbent Republican Parson’s lifting of indoor capacity limits in June and the lack of a mask mandate is a major reason why the state is struggling with COVID-19 now more than ever. Parson hasn’t distanced himself from Trump, who’s once dominant poll numbers here have since declined a bit. Parson pardoned a Saint Louis couple that aimed guns at BLM protestors. Meanwhile, Democrat Nicole Galloway, the state Auditor, has raised as much money as Parson. Galloway won re-election in 2018, even as incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill lost. A recent poll shows Parson with a 2-point lead over Galloway, but other polls have proved better for Parson. Galloway, who ran for Governor after Parson signed a “heartbeat abortion” bill, is unlikely to make a lot of inroads against Parson in conservative rural Missouri. But she doesn’t need to. When she won in 2018, she won only 1 county that didn’t contain or was near Saint Louis, Kansas City, Jefferson City, or Springfield. Missouri’s exurbs and mid-sized cities decide its elections these days. Parson has lost his robust appeal in these more densely-populated areas. For her part, Galloway’s political and policy positions are pretty indistinguishable from Joe Biden’s. I still have Missouri as Safe Trump, so Parson still holds an advantage.

Balancing out this rating change, the only pro-Republican rating change today, is Vermont moving from Lean to Likely Republican. Incumbent Republican Phil Scott has garnered wide praise for his COVID-19 response. The state went 43 days without a COVID-related death. Polls show him in a better position than many red-state Republicans, as LG David Zuckerman, the expected general election opponent to Scott, has more or less fallen flat. Scott has made it a point to distance himself from Trump, he’s not afraid to go against him. Vermont is a very blue state, so maybe Zuckerman or education secretary Rebecca Holcombe can pull something together, but Scott’s popularity seems too overbearing for them to have a decent chance.

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